Killeverything's (New)NeverEndingBaseballThread

[WOLF]

RIP Duke Snider

Amen. Of course I never saw him play, but he did color and play-by-play for the Expos, with Dave Van Horne, when I was a kid growing up. His voice was the soundtrack to my summers.

[Machado]

Kill-
what is your beef with joba vs. cashman? there is no story there.
at the beginning of this season oncea gain the question whether or not
Joba will be placed in the starting rotation was a topic.
Cashman was doing his job by saying Joba will not be a starter this year and the main reason is due to the fact that the Yankees brass feels like Joba can help the team win out of the pen, not taking the mound every 5th day.

saw 2 Yankee games over the weekend courtesy of MLB Network.
Nova did his thing yesterday

Montero seems to be opening a lot of eyes since he caught 100 games in the minors last year. if he's overmatched at the plate, that will be the main reason why he does not break camp with the big club.

[killeverything]

Kill-
what is your beef with joba vs. cashman? there is no story there.
at the beginning of this season oncea gain the question whether or not
Joba will be placed in the starting rotation was a topic.
Cashman was doing his job by saying Joba will not be a starter this year and the main reason is due to the fact that the Yankees brass feels like Joba can help the team win out of the pen, not taking the mound every 5th day.

saw 2 Yankee games over the weekend courtesy of MLB Network.
Nova did his thing yesterday

Montero seems to be opening a lot of eyes since he caught 100 games in the minors last year. if he's overmatched at the plate, that will be the main reason why he does not break camp with the big club.

Feeling like "he can help the team win by coming out of the pen". Is not the same as saying basically he's not cut out to be a starter anymore.

All of MLB knows their rotation could be in shambles, so some trades might NEED to happen. You never let opposing GMs know your running out of options, especially with a stocked farm system.

I would liken it to playing Poker and bluffing.....if I played Poker.

[killeverything]

Bump

John Dewan's Stat Of The Week

Who will be the best defensive teams in 2011?

March 2, 2011

With the 2011 season rapidly approaching, it's time to bust out our new defensive projections. In The Fielding Bible—Volume II, we laid out our calculations to estimate the number of runs a player saves or costs his team with his defensive play. For example, our calculations estimate that Brendan Ryan saved the Cardinals 27 runs last year at shortstop, the highest total in all of baseball.

Ryan's new team, the Seattle Mariners, projects as the top defensive team with a projected 78 Runs Saved. This comes as no surprise, as the Mariners led the league in 2009 with 110 Runs Saved, the highest team total in our database (dating back through 2003). Four other American League teams round out the top five:

Top Projected Defensive Teams for 2011
Projected
Team Runs Saved
Seattle Mariners 78
Texas Rangers 40
Oakland Athletics 33
Toronto Blue Jays 32
Tampa Bay Rays 25

The Mariners have five players projected for double-digit Runs Saved, including Ryan (projected for 15 Runs Saved at second base), Jack Wilson (18 Runs Saved at shortstop), Franklin Gutierrez (15 Runs Saved in centerfield), Ichiro Suzuki (12 Runs Saved in right field), and Chone Figgins (10 Runs Saved in his move back to third base).

Top Projected Defensive Players for 2011
Projected
Team Position Runs Saved
Jack Wilson SS 18
Ryan Zimmerman 3B 16
Adrian Beltre 3B 16
Chase Utley 2B 16
Brendan Ryan 2B 15
Franklin Gutierrez CF 15
Carl Crawford LF 15
Austin Jackson CF 14
Michael Bourn CF 14
Ichiro Suzuki RF 12
Mike Stanton RF 12

And for a related announcement:

The Fielding Bible—Volume III Research Contest

John Dewan and the folks at Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) have a long history of collecting innovative data and providing cutting-edge defensive metrics to team clients and the general public. Since the publication of The Fielding Bible and The Fielding Bible—Volume II, dozens of independent analysts have joined the effort to shed additional light on what is still the least-understood aspect of the game.

Here's your chance to leave a lasting mark on the industry. Send us your best research on any fielding or defense-related topic. Do you have an idea for a new defensive metric? A new way to measure a previously untapped area of analysis? An idea to improve upon research that someone else has published? Some data of your own that you'd like to share? Whatever you've got in mind, we want to hear about it.

The top submission will be featured in The Fielding Bible—Volume III and will receive a $150 cash prize. Runners-up will receive a complimentary copy of the book next spring.

Aspiring sabermetricians: this is your chance to have your research featured in one of the industry's leading publications. Established analysts: this is an opportunity to help us build the best defensive evaluations to date.

Click here for more information about the contest and submission guidlines.

Here's the link for the contest.

http://baseballinfosolutions.com/contest.html

[Machado]

Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli has a fracture in his left foot and will be out a minimum of four weeks, team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad told manager Joe Girardi on Monday.

Cervelli, who is on crutches and sporting a walking boot, fouled a ball off the foot during a Grapefruit League game against the Astros on Wednesday.

Cervelli's absence could increase rookie Jesus Montero's chances of winning the backup catcher's spot behind Russell Martin, who is to make his first start of the spring against the Red Sox on Friday night. Girardi said veteran Jorge Posada is expected to remain a designated hitter.

[killeverything]

Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli has a fracture in his left foot and will be out a minimum of four weeks, team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad told manager Joe Girardi on Monday.

Cervelli, who is on crutches and sporting a walking boot, fouled a ball off the foot during a Grapefruit League game against the Astros on Wednesday.

Cervelli's absence could increase rookie Jesus Montero's chances of winning the backup catcher's spot behind Russell Martin, who is to make his first start of the spring against the Red Sox on Friday night. Girardi said veteran Jorge Posada is expected to remain a designated hitter.

The thing about Montero is they basically have a DH on their hands according to the scouting reports I've read ( I'll link some if necessary ). The guy projects to be an enigma at the plate, but will be run on more than Martinez when Wakefield is pitching.

I think he'd be more of liability than Posada at this point. With a bat in his hands though?

[Machado]

Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli has a fracture in his left foot and will be out a minimum of four weeks, team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad told manager Joe Girardi on Monday.

Cervelli, who is on crutches and sporting a walking boot, fouled a ball off the foot during a Grapefruit League game against the Astros on Wednesday.

Cervelli's absence could increase rookie Jesus Montero's chances of winning the backup catcher's spot behind Russell Martin, who is to make his first start of the spring against the Red Sox on Friday night. Girardi said veteran Jorge Posada is expected to remain a designated hitter.

The thing about Montero is they basically have a DH on their hands according to the scouting reports I've read ( I'll link some if necessary ). The guy projects to be an enigma at the plate, but will be run on more than Martinez when Wakefield is pitching.

I think he'd be more of liability than Posada at this point. With a bat in his hands though?

Time will tell. There is room for improvement, so who knows how much progress the kid has made.
Obviously the Yankees coaching staff will tell you Montero is a much better receiver right now then he was at the end of last season.

I'm excited about this kid and hope he's good enough to break camp with the team and contribute.
Depending on how well/poorly Martin plays as the starter, that could also factor into the development of Montero.

Listen, Posada broke into the majors playing behind Girardi for 2+ seasons.
That situation worked out very well, so why can't Montero play 2 games a week behind the plate while he learns how to catch in the majors??

[johnk5150]

Any truth to the rumor that Aramis Ramirez kept dropping his fork at breakfast this morning? Fuck BEANS the Cubs defense will be worse this year than last. Which seems impossible.

[tin00can]

Top Projected Defensive Players for 2011
Projected
Team Position Runs Saved
Jack Wilson SS 18
Ryan Zimmerman 3B 16
Adrian Beltre 3B 16
Chase Utley 2B 16
Brendan Ryan 2B 15
Franklin Gutierrez CF 15
Carl Crawford LF 15
Austin Jackson CF 14
Michael Bourn CF 14
Ichiro Suzuki RF 12
Mike Stanton RF 12

Call me a homer if you will, but Peter Bourjos not making that list is ridiculous, especially with Ichiro and Beltre on there. I can't remember the last time I was excited watching somebody play in the field every day but I am with him. His range in CF is incredible and he was second in runs saved (or a similar stat, I forget which one) last year despite playing less than half a season.

[killeverything]

Top Projected Defensive Players for 2011
Projected
Team Position Runs Saved
Jack Wilson SS 18
Ryan Zimmerman 3B 16
Adrian Beltre 3B 16
Chase Utley 2B 16
Brendan Ryan 2B 15
Franklin Gutierrez CF 15
Carl Crawford LF 15
Austin Jackson CF 14
Michael Bourn CF 14
Ichiro Suzuki RF 12
Mike Stanton RF 12

Call me a homer if you will, but Peter Bourjos not making that list is ridiculous, especially with Ichiro and Beltre on there. I can't remember the last time I was excited watching somebody play in the field every day but I am with him. His range in CF is incredible and he was second in runs saved (or a similar stat, I forget which one) last year despite playing less than half a season.

When those lists are made, they use the previous year as a template. So Bourjos could've been at the top, but less than half a season is going to effect his overall rankings. Those guys on the list did over a 162 game season. Overatedsby Ellsbury was really good for a quarter of a season too.....

[killeverything]

PHOENIX -- Zack Greinke, the offseason acquisition the Milwaukee Brewers hoped would put them over the top in their pursuit of an NL Central title, is expected to begin the season on the 15-day disabled list after suffering a hairline fracture in one of his ribs playing pickup basketball.

The Brewers previously had said only that Greinke suffered an injury a couple of weeks ago during an off-the-field activity, but Greinke didn't receive the diagnosis of a broken rib until Tuesday, just after the team's Cactus League game with the Los Angeles Dodgers. At that point, Greinke told reporters he suffered the injury going for a rebound during a basketball game, before he pitched in any spring training games.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring201 ... id=6194714

Wow. So he's only going to be out like 4-6 weeks, but the Reds aren't going anywhere.

Something about this smells like Aaron Boone.

[killeverything]

*BUMP*

Here's some movements the past few weeks.

The MFY designated RHP Brian Schlitter for assignment. Sadly, he was claimed by Philadelphia, who designated RHP Andrew Carpenter to make room.
I was looking forward to his MFY Stadium debut. Can you imagine the fun to had with that name? Johnson/Wang has nothing on that.

The Cubs traded INF Tony Thomas to Boston in exchange for RHP Robert Coello.

The Indians signed INF Orlando Cabrera to a 1-year, $1M deal. He's competing for 2B.

Baltimore officially signed DH Vladimir Guerrero to a 1-year deal worth $8M. ( I will always be a Vlad fan ).

The Rockies extended their deal with RHP Matt Belisle. After agreeing to a $2.35M deal last month to avoid arbitration, the Rockies expanded that deal to 2-years and $6.125M, buying out his first year of free agency. By agreeing to the deal, Belisle earned himself a guaranteed $3.775M for next season.

minor league deals:
Dodgers: RHP Lance Cormier
Mets: RHP Jason Isringhausen
Rays: INF/OF Joe Inglett
Rockies: RHP Jesus Colome

The Yankees released LHP Neal Cotts, whom they signed to a minor league deal back in November.

The Padres released INF Gregorio Petit, who was signed to a minor league deal by the club this offseason, after learning that he would be out for the season with a knee injury.

Washington designated RHP Luis Atilano for assignment.
Cleveland outrighted RHP Joe Martinez to AAA.

In case anyone cares, RHP Mike Jones, who was the 12th overall pick in 2001, has decided to retire. Jones explained that "there just wasn't much need out there for a 27-year-old broke-down, struggling pitcher, former first-rounder or not."

Here's what's happened in the last couple of weeks:
LHP Aaron Laffey was traded to Seattle for INF Matt Lawton and cash.
RHP Dustin Nippert is headed to the Doosan Bears of Korea.

RHP Matt Thornton signed a 2-year extension with the White Sox, plus a club option for 2014. He'll get $5.5M each in 2012 and 2013, and the club option is worth $6M ($1M buyout).

The Red Sox voided RHP Jason Bergmann's deal after finding out that he had a preexisting shoulder injury of which they were unaware.

Toronto claimed LHP Cesar Cabral off waivers from the Rays.

major league deals:
Indians: RHP Chad Durbin ($800K)

minor league deals:
Astros: C Robinson Cancel
Indians: 1B Nick Johnson
Mets: OF Jesus Feliciano
Nationals: LHP Ron Villone
Rangers: RHP Brett Tomko
Rockies: HP Joe Torres

outrighted:
Dodgers: LHP Dana Eveland
Nationals: RHP Luis Atilano
Phillies: RHP Andrew Carpenter

released:
Nationals: RHP Cla Meredith
Phillies: UTIL Robb Quinlan
Rockies: C Chad Moeller
Yankees: LHP Andrew Sisco

OF Jody Gerut officially announced his retirement.
RHP Bobby Howry officially retired.
C Gregg Zaun has retired from baseball.

[Machado]

MLB Most Popular Jerseys
Based on Majestic 2010 sales figures

1. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
2. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
3. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
4. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
5. *Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
6. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
7. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
8. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
9. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
10. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
11. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
12. Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
13. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
14. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
15. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
16. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
17. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
18. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
19. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
20. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays


MLB Licensing 2010 Club Rankings
Based on sales of all licensed products for the 2010 calendar year

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Chicago Cubs
6. St. Louis Cardinals
7. Chicago White Sox
8. Atlanta Braves
9. Minnesota Twins
10. Detroit Tigers

[johnk5150]

5. Chicago Cubs

Can they win something first please?

[WhiteHouseSubsAC]

Well played, Joe Mauer.

[tin00can]

On angelswin.com the topic of injuries came up, and an interesting question was posed: does it seem like your team always has more injuries than other teams, or is it just because you follow the team so closely you know more about them than other teams?

So, I'd like for you guys to post who on your team will start the season on the DL, just for the sake of comparison.

Angels:
Kendrys Morales
Scott Downs
Joel Pineiro
Reggie Willits (yeah, I know, that's actually a blessing but he still sorta counts)

Vernon Wells was taken out of the game today, hopefully nothing serious.

[TawnyVonJagger]

Going to the Red Sox/Marlins game tomorrow. Coghlan and Stanton are returning to the lineup! Finally get to see Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton crush some!

Also got my season tix in the mail today. 8 more days, fuckers!

[Machado]

On angelswin.com the topic of injuries came up, and an interesting question was posed: does it seem like your team always has more injuries than other teams, or is it just because you follow the team so closely you know more about them than other teams?

So, I'd like for you guys to post who on your team will start the season on the DL, just for the sake of comparison.

Angels:
Kendrys Morales
Scott Downs
Joel Pineiro
Reggie Willits (yeah, I know, that's actually a blessing but he still sorta counts)

Vernon Wells was taken out of the game today, hopefully nothing serious.

The other night I heard that Kendrys was still recovering from his broken ankle. WOW!!!
I don't follow the team, but he really wrecked his ankle up with the joke-of-a-celebration at home plate last season. Don't think we will see a repeat of that performance again.

[TawnyVonJagger]

So, yeah. Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton came back from injury and started his first ST game of the year. Struck out his first AB, then hit 2 3R HR's, plus an RBI single. Welcome back, Mike!

[tin00can]

Now it's looking like May/June for Morales. Hope none of you have him in your fantasy league.

[WhiteHouseSubsAC]

On angelswin.com the topic of injuries came up, and an interesting question was posed: does it seem like your team always has more injuries than other teams, or is it just because you follow the team so closely you know more about them than other teams?

So, I'd like for you guys to post who on your team will start the season on the DL, just for the sake of comparison.

Angels:
Kendrys Morales
Scott Downs
Joel Pineiro
Reggie Willits (yeah, I know, that's actually a blessing but he still sorta counts)

Vernon Wells was taken out of the game today, hopefully nothing serious.

So far:

Chase Utley
Domonic Brown
Brad Lidge (being announced today or tomorrow)

[johnk5150]

Now it's looking like May/June for Morales. Hope none of you have him in your fantasy league.

Poor fucker can't catch a break.

[Facedown]

Yankees trade P Sergio Mitre to Brewers for OF Chris Dickerson and also sign P Kevin Millwood to a minor league deal.

[killeverything]

Yankees trade P Sergio Mitre to Brewers for OF Chris Dickerson and also sign P Kevin Millwood to a minor league deal.

I was surprised by that trade. I can understand having backup in case something happens with Granderson or something, but trading pitching depth? Especially when you see who have fighting it out for your fifth spot.

Oh and har d har on Millwood. You held out for a major league deal and ended up with a mL deal anyway? Yep you'll be in Scranton with the 2005 AL Cy Young winner.

[killeverything]

John Dewan's Stat Of The Week

Who's the Next Jose Bautista? Predicting 2011's Breakout Players

March 25, 2011

A few years ago, we researched the predictive significance of Spring Training statistics. For the most part, a player's spring stats aren't predictive of regular season success. For example, Ichiro Suzuki hit .257 (19 for 74) last spring but still wound up hitting .315 and leading all of baseball with 214 hits during the regular season.

However, we did find that extremely good Spring Training numbers often indicated that a breakout season was on the way. In the study, about two-thirds of hitters who had spring slugging percentages at least .200 higher than their career total went on to best their career average that season.

Last year, Jose Bautista topped our list of potential breakout players with a spring slugging percentage near .900, nearly .500 points higher than his career slugging percentage of .400. The rest, as they say, is history: Bautista went on to slug a league-leading 54 home runs in one of the most surprising performances in recent memory.

Where can we find the next Jose Bautista? Well, the following list is a good place to start. Here are the 36 players whose Spring Training slugging percentages (minimum 40 at-bats) exceed their career totals by at least 200 points:

Possible Breakout Players

Slugging Percentage 200+ points better in Spring Training

Hitter, Team Difference Spring Career
Jake Fox, Orioles .413 .836 .423
Kila Ka'aihue, Royals .406 .804 .398
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees .381 .952 .571
Coco Crisp, Athletics .373 .783 .410
Chris Davis, Rangers .363 .822 .459
Travis Buck, Indians .359 .783 .424
George Kottaras, Brewers .351 .745 .394
Ian Kinsler, Rangers .350 .816 .466
Melky Cabrera, Royals .348 .727 .379
Rajai Davis, Blue Jays .328 .711 .383
Carlos Gomez, Brewers .318 .667 .349
Alcides Escobar, Royals .316 .651 .335
Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians .306 .700 .394
Starlin Castro, Cubs .304 .712 .408
Ryan Langerhans, Mariners .301 .675 .374
Russell Branyan, Diamondbacks .293 .783 .490
Brandon Wood, Angels .278 .538 .260
Michael Morse, Nationals .271 .727 .456
Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks .270 .659 .389
Willie Harris, Mets .262 .614 .352
Jason Michaels, Astros .259 .674 .416
Josh Thole, Mets .258 .628 .373
Andy LaRoche, Athletics .253 .591 .338
Lyle Overbay, Pirates .253 .700 .447
Pete Orr, Phillies .250 .585 .335
Aubrey Huff, Giants .249 .725 .476
Matt Kemp, Dodgers .248 .720 .472
Aaron Miles, Dodgers .246 .600 .354
Alex Rios, White Sox .242 .688 .446
Chris Heisey, Reds .241 .674 .433
Alex Gordon, Royals .241 .646 .405
Scott Hairston, Mets .239 .674 .435
Buster Posey, Giants .236 .725 .489
Jonathan Herrera, Rockies .227 .556 .329
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays .206 .659 .453
Jason Kubel, Twins .204 .667 .463

[tin00can]

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Mike Scioscia:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-032 ... 6215.story


Yeah, let's give the guy who tore it up in spring, who has the most power potential for a power-hungry team, sporadic starts so we can get another slap-hitter in the lineup.

[killeverything]

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Mike Scioscia:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-032 ... 6215.story


Yeah, let's give the guy who tore it up in spring, who has the most power potential for a power-hungry team, sporadic starts so we can get another slap-hitter in the lineup.

You can't put anything on ST though. Last season Buchholz had a 9.33ERA in Spring Training, and everyone was all "when's he gonna reach his potential?" Then he leads the AL in ERA+

Or Jeremy Hermida and his .639SLG. What team's minors is he in again now?

While Scoicia has been pretty questionable as of late, you can't base anything on Spring Training.

[grishnak boss]

[JakeYonkel]

Some predictions, since opening day is less than 24 hours away...

I'm not doing records projections, just final standings and some comments along the way:

NL West
Rockies
Giants
Padres
Dodgers
Diamondbacks

Giants still have good pitching obviously but I think they caught a bit of lightning in a bottle with the performances of Huff and Burrell. Rockies are a better team.

NL Central
Reds
Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Pirates
Astros

No reason why the Reds shouldn't repeat as division champs, with a little bit of a push from Milwaukee. St. Louis is going to suffer in the pitching department. Cubs will suck again, and the Astros are so bad I'm picking them to finish behind Pittsburgh.

NL East
Phillies
Braves
Mets
Marlins
Nationals

No way that Philly doesn't take the division with that pitching staff, but the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Rollins is trending downwards, they'll miss Utley for months, Ibanez sucks, and Howard is going to get older and slower soon. But pitching will carry them and nobody else in this division is worthwhile. Really if you switched the Mets and Nationals I wouldn't argue with you.

AL West
Athletics
Rangers
Angels
Mariners

Oakland's pitching is really good. I think Texas had their shot last year and the window's closed.

AL Central
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Royals
Indians

Indians should be putrid this year, you could probably switch any of the top three teams and I wouldn't be surprised, but it's sorta like that every year, isn't it?

AL East
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jays
Orioles

Should be a really competitive division. I think that the Rays' losses are overstated, personally, but it's still hard to pick them over New York or Boston. I could see the Yankees topping Boston - I think they're pretty evenly matched despite the ESPN love affair with the Red Sox. Toronto and Baltimore seem to just spin their wheels despite their moves.

[TawnyVonJagger]

Who's ready for some fucking baseball?! Friday can't get here soon enough for me!