Is Luck A Lock?

gr8twhte · Post by **gr8twhte** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:32 pm

Suck for Luck...

The draft is such a crapshoot at first round QB's. Is this guy the real-done-deal??

bane · Post by **bane** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:36 pm

gr8twhte wrote:Suck for Luck...

The draft is such a crapshoot at first round QB's. Is this guy the real-done-deal??

Whether or not he lives up to the hype remains to be seen, but there's almost no doubt he goes first. He's supposedly the best "sure thing" since Elway.

girlsgirlsgirls · Post by **girlsgirlsgirls** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:44 pm

Said the same thing about Lienart a few years back and we see what happened to him. Brady was an afterthought in the draft. It's all a crap shoot. I do think he is a lock to go top 10 for sure and if he would have came out this year he would have been #1. Looks like the Panthers got the better deal.

NeverSurrender · Post by **NeverSurrender** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:24 am

girlsgirlsgirls wrote:Said the same thing about Lienart a few years back and we see what happened to him. Brady was an afterthought in the draft. It's all a crap shoot. I do think he is a lock to go top 10 for sure and if he would have came out this year he would have been #1. Looks like the Panthers got the better deal.

Lienart was never picked number 1 overall.

bane · Post by **bane** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:08 am

Leinart wasn't close to the prize of his draft. He wasnt even the first QB drafted.

NeverSurrender · Post by **NeverSurrender** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:13 am

bane wrote:Leinart wasn't close to the prize of his draft. He wasnt even the first QB drafted.

But he was like Luck and if he hadn't stayed in school, most people had him going number 1. But I believe he went tenth and Vince Young went 3rd after Mario Williams and Reggie Bush. don't kill me if I have Young And Bush mixed.

bane · Post by **bane** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:29 am

NeverSurrender wrote:
bane wrote:Leinart wasn't close to the prize of his draft. He wasnt even the first QB drafted.

But he was like Luck and if he hadn't stayed in school, most people had him going number 1. But I believe he went tenth and Vince Young went 3rd after Mario Williams and Reggie Bush. don't kill me if I have Young And Bush mixed.

I think you might have Bush and Young flip flopped, but I could be wrong. Leinart was pretty highly touted the year he won the Heisman, and yeah, he may have gone 1 if he'd entered the draft that year. He was called "NFL ready", but he wasn't talked about like Luck is. The scouts are all slobbering over that guy.

NeverSurrender · Post by **NeverSurrender** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:40 pm

Bush did go second.

cantstopthemusic · Post by **cantstopthemusic** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 1:32 pm

NeverSurrender wrote:
bane wrote:Leinart wasn't close to the prize of his draft. He wasnt even the first QB drafted.
But he was like Luck and if he hadn't stayed in school, most people had him going number 1.

Incorrect.

SullyHernia · Post by **SullyHernia** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 1:44 pm

I still haven't even seen this guy play yet. Seems like Stanford is never on TV...and if they are, there's always a better SEC or Big Ten game on that I'd rather watch.

NeverSurrender · Post by **NeverSurrender** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:52 pm

cantstopthemusic wrote:
NeverSurrender wrote:
bane wrote:Leinart wasn't close to the prize of his draft. He wasnt even the first QB drafted.
But he was like Luck and if he hadn't stayed in school, most people had him going number 1.
Incorrect.

Correct. Look it up.

cantstopthemusic · Post by **cantstopthemusic** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:23 pm

cantstopthemusic wrote:
NeverSurrender wrote:
bane wrote:Leinart wasn't close to the prize of his draft. He wasnt even the first QB drafted.
But he was like Luck and if he hadn't stayed in school, most people had him going number 1.
Incorrect.

NeverSurrender wrote:Correct. Look it up.

Reviewing the 2005 NFL Draft, I had forgotten what an utterly weak year that was. I retract the earlier comment.

johnk5150 · Post by **johnk5150** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 5:14 pm

People need to take a look at where the top QBs were drafted before they say drafting a QB is a crapshoot. Most of your solid starting QBs are high first round picks. Do some of them not pan out? Of course. But most teams don't strike paydirt at the end of the draft on their QB ala Brady with the Patriots.

bane · Post by **bane** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 7:12 pm

johnk5150 wrote:People need to take a look at where the top QBs were drafted before they say drafting a QB is a crapshoot. Most of your solid starting QBs are high first round picks. Do some of them not pan out? Of course. But most teams don't strike paydirt at the end of the draft on their QB ala Brady with the Patriots.

Most starting QBs were drafted high, but, there are very few elite level QBs. For every Peyton or Rodgers there's a whole bunch of Eli's and Smiths. All those guys can play well enough to start in the NFL, but the gamble comes into play on whether or not you have an elite QB for years to come, or a middle of the road guy that you're stuck with. The draft investment is the same.

SkyDog112046 · Post by **SkyDog112046** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 7:55 pm

There are more QBs who are busts taken at #1-#5 then there are successful QBs for sure. But most of the good QBs end up being guys who were taken in those spots or projected to go in those spots. A lot of it comes down to skill set - can the QB make the transition to a pro offense and read pro defenses?

There are a lot of guys that get taken at the top that were more athletes than traditional QB and had success in college based on the fact that they were the most dominant athlete on the field most of the time instead of learning how to read defenses and manage a game. Those guys will more than likely flame out.

Look at the top QBs in the game over the past few years:
Brady - 6th round
Manning - #1 overall
Rodgers - 1st round
Brees - 2nd round
Rivers - 1st round
Rapistberger - 1st round

Most of the QBs getting to the conference championships and beyond were taken high in the draft.

Some guys like Elway and Manning were pretty much sure things coming out of college. They had the physical tools, accuracy, intelligence, the ability to process quickly, and the drive to work hard to be successful. Any QB coming into the league with all of those skills is going to be successful if they get into the right system and get the proper coaching. Luck seems to have all of those skills. If he doesn't go somewhere fucked up like Cincy, Seattle(Pete Carroll has no business being in the NFL), or Oakland(who won't be drafting that high) he should be at least a solid NFL QB.

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