Hall of Fame probability of active players

[Pimp_From_The_Grave]

Hall of Fame probability of active players: Peyton Manning for sure; Tony Romo in air



By Mike Beacom, ProFootballWeekly.comFeb 10, 3:17 pm EST




The Pro Football Hall of Fame is for winners and the elite, and even those players sometimes have to wait. Cris Carter has 1,101 receptions and 130 touchdown catches; Charles Haley has more Super Bowl rings than anyone(five) — both are still waiting for the call.



What does it take to make the Hall? Only voters can answer that question, but what we do know is that the 44-person Selection Committee inducts no more than five each year (not counting the two Senior Committee candidates) and rarely more than one at each position.


Who is on the right track among today's active players? It changes year to year, with all of them able to be grouped into varying levels of probability. The 100 players considered below entered the league in 2007 or before, giving them at least five years of work to showcase. Players are listed with their position, 2011 team and draft year.



LOCKS — Legends that might as well start getting measured for their suit coat.



Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts (1998) — With him, the Colts were consistent 10-game winners; without him, they were awful.


Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens (1996) — Probably the best defensive player of the past two decades.


Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons (1997) — Changed the position (and at age 35 still caught 80 balls).


Champ Bailey, DB, Denver Broncos (1999) — Another year, another Pro Bowl — that makes 11 in 13 seasons.


LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, New York Jets (2001) — His late-career decline could keep him out on his first try, but L.T. won't wait long.


Ed Reed, DB, Baltimore Ravens (2002) — His 57 interceptions are not as important as his eight career interception or fumble returns for scores.


Charles Woodson, DB, Green Bay Packers (1998) — Imagine if he had played in Dom Capers' system his entire career.


Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (2000) — Five Super Bowls, four seasons with 4,000-plus yards, three rings, two MVPs 0-2 since Spygate scandal…


Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers (2003) — Eight consecutive Pro Bowl invites and no signs of slowing down (well, when healthy).




ON THEIR WAY — Elite players on pace to finish up in Canton, each with a 75 percent chance or better.



Troy Polamalu, DB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2003) — Voters will want to reward the great Steelers defenses of this era. Polamalu gives them a face.


Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (2001) — Has passed for 4,300 or more yards in six consecutive seasons (including two years with more than 5,000). His strong character will help his candidacy just as much.


Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears (2000) — His performance the past two seasons has solidified his campaign. Plus, it helps that he follows Butkus and Singletary in the line of outstanding Chicago middle linebackers.


Adam Vinatieri, PK, Indianapolis Colts (1996) — The Hall of Fame doesn't care for kickers, but it will make an exception for the most celebrated big-game kicker of them all.


Brian Dawkins, DB, Denver Broncos (1996) — A locker-room leader who has played well into his late 30s. That packaged with eight Pro Bowls (four All-Pro selections) should be enough.


DeMarcus Ware, LB, Dallas Cowboys (2005) — Outside of Reggie White, no sack artist has had a run to match what Ware has accomplished these past five seasons.


Richard Seymour, DL, Oakland Raiders (2001) — Has rings from his time in New England, and has a pair of Pro Bowls from his last two seasons in Oakland. Underappreciated but he won't go unnoticed by voters.


Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys (2003) — Of the tight ends currently in the Hall of Fame, only one (Shannon Sharpe) has been invited to more Pro Bowls than Witten.


Dwight Freeney, DL, Indianapolis Colts (2002) — Partially responsible for teams shifting to small, quick edge rushers. Has a better sack-per-game average than 2012 HOF inductee Chris Doleman.


Steve Hutchinson, OL, Minnesota Vikings (2001) — Even though he is one of the most celebrated guards of his era (five All-Pro selections) his body of work places him on the low end of the guards already in Canton.



Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1998) — The numbers (1,000 catches, 12,083 yards) won't mean as much to voters as his role in Pittsburgh's last three Super Bowl appearances, including two wins.


Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (2004) — The youngest player not in the "On their way" category. His 2011 numbers (notably his 17.6-yard average) showed he can produce in bad times as well as good.


Julius Peppers, DL, Chicago Bears (2002) — Has seven seasons with 10-plus sacks to his credit and six Pro Bowls. Probably more disruptive than his numbers indicate, but he also has been inconsistent at times throughout his career.


Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (2004) — Jim Plunkett and Ben Roethlisberger (see below) are the only other quarterbacks to have won two Super Bowls who are not in Canton — and Eli's numbers rate him well above Plunkett and Big Ben.


Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans (2003) — Will reach 10,000 yards in 2012 (in only his 10th NFL season). Has made nearly six catches per game over his career.


Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2004) — Like Eli, has two rings (and played in a third Super Bowl). Roethlisberger has been a consistent winner, but his passing numbers (specifically touchdowns) are lacking.


London Fletcher, LB, Washington Redskins (1998) — Years from now, well into Fletcher's candidacy, someone will remind voters just how consistently good he was. After years of being overlooked, Canton could be his reward.




MAYBE, MAYBE NOT — Stars that have had a splendid career, just maybe not Hall of Fame caliber. Each has a 50-50 shot at best.



Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (2001) — Will voters see hiim as the most exceptional athlete ever to suit up, or as a quarterback who was merely good on as many Sundays as he was elite?


Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts (2001) — Without Peyton Manning in the pocket, Wayne's 2011 catch and yardage numbers dropped approximately 30 percent from the previous season — calculations voters will make note of.


Jared Allen, DL, Minnesota Vikings (2004) — This season's 22 sacks give Allen's candidacy a major boost.


Matt Light, OL, New England Patriots (2001) — Voters like to reward great teams. Light has been with Tom Brady for all five Super Bowl runs, and has enough name recognition and Pro Bowls (three) to stay in the conversation.


Kevin Williams, DL, Minnesota Vikings (2003) — Plays the run and pass well, arguably one of the best interior defensive linemen of his era. Will need a few more Pro Bowls (or a ring) to jump up a category on this list.


John Abraham, DL, Atlanta Falcons (2000) — Would you believe Abraham's sack-per-game numbers are better than Dwight Freeney's? Neither will voters, but it's true.


Adrian Wilson, DB, Arizona Cardinals (2001) — Not a big turnover producer, just a very smart and solid safety.


James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2002) — Has helped Pittsburgh remain a force in the AFC. A late bloomer (probably a little too late).



Terrell Suggs, LB, Baltimore Ravens (2003) — Reached new ground in 2011. Can he hold that level for two or three more years? He'll need to for Canton to come calling.


Lance Briggs, LB, Chicago Bears (2003) — Seven consecutive Pro Bowl invites helps; Brian Urlacher's shadow hurts.


Chad Ochocinco, WR, New England Patriots (2001) — A rare case where panache might appeal to voters more than substance.


Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers (2001) — The real question is how many yards will a receiver need to gain entrance 10 years from now? Smith won't have enough touchdowns or receptions, that's for certain.


Ronde Barber, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1997) — Right now, there does not appear to be enough on Barber's résumé. He has contributed in many ways, but probably has not stood out enough in any one area (turnovers, tackles, defensive scores, sacks) to earn strong consideration.


Matt Birk, OL, Baltimore Ravens (1998) — Six Pro Bowls and the 2011 Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award will highlight a splendid career for a center who doesn't quite meet the mark.


Donovan McNabb, QB (1999) — There was a time when McNabb appeared destined for Canton. Now he appears destined for Canada.




http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=p ... ve_players

[Facedown]

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (2000) — Five Super Bowls, four seasons with 4,000-plus yards, three rings, two MVPs 0-2 since Spygate scandal…

Awww, pimpy just wuvs p13.
Here's what it really says for those who aren't trolls or striving to be one.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (2000) — Five Super Bowls, four seasons with 4,000-plus yards, three rings, two MVPs … sounds like a fit for No. 1 on this list

So, he edits it and changes the order.
Pathetic, thy name is Pimp.

[SkyDog112046]

Vinatieri is a lock. He need not kick a football ever again to get into Canton. He punched his ticket with those 3 SB's in New England. Vinatieri is the most clutch kicker in NFL history.

[poizond13]

Brady will get in on his first ballot, but unfortunately his name will always have an asterisk next to it.

[bane]

Neither Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith or Chad Ochocinco will get in.

[MurrayFiend]

Lewis, Woodson and Gonzalez all deserve it big-time. Impossible to disagree with those two QBs.

[tin00can]

Brady will get in on his first ballot, but unfortunately his name will always have an asterisk next to it.

* = Some fucking dunces think I don't deserve to be here.

[bane]

Lewis, Woodson and Gonzalez all deserve it big-time. Impossible to disagree with those two QBs.

I'd say that's true for everybody on that "locks" list.

[MurrayFiend]

Sure.

[cantstopthemusic]

Brady will get in on his first ballot, but unfortunately his name will always have an asterisk next to it.

For not letting you sit on his lap?

Get the fuck over it.

[Facedown]

Brady will get in on his first ballot, but unfortunately his name will always have an asterisk next to it.

Wrong as usual.

[Pimp_From_The_Grave]

Brady will get in on his first ballot, but unfortunately his name will always have an asterisk next to it.

ala Barry Bonds. It's a shame when cheating and cheaters are rewarded.

[Facedown]

Brady will get in on his first ballot, but unfortunately his name will always have an asterisk next to it.

ala Barry Bonds. It's a shame when cheating and cheaters are rewarded.

Awww, a wink to go along with agreeing with a troll.
Love is in the air.

[MurrayFiend]

Yes! I was hoping for another thread about 'cheating'.

[Tommy]

Tom Brady - No shit. One of the best QB's ever. I say this as a JETS fan. Guy is a winner, one of the best ever.

Mike Vick - Seriously? Who in the fuck thinks this guy is even close? Not even talking about Dogs. Talking about being a good QB. Vick? Jesus, kill me now.

For guys who never won shit, Donovan is light years ahead of him.

Steve Smith gets my vote, FWIW.

[bigbuttskinner]

Joe Thomas - Left Tackle for the Browns. Pro Bowl every year and is a great player. Not a lock by any stretch, but I would say he is on his way up.

[johnk5150]

Hall of Fame probability of active players: Peyton Manning for sure; Tony Romo in air



Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears (2000) — His performance the past two seasons has solidified his campaign. Plus, it helps that he follows Butkus and Singletary in the line of outstanding Chicago middle linebackers.

Peppers

10-plus sacks to his credit and six Pro Bowls. Probably more disruptive than his numbers indicate, but he also has been inconsistent at times throughout his career.

Lance Briggs, LB, Chicago Bears (2003) — Seven consecutive Pro Bowl invites helps; Brian Urlacher's shadow hurts.


http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=p ... ve_players

If being in Urlacher's shadow hurts Briggs, then having Briggs helps Urlacher incredibly. I'd lean toward yes on both. Peppers for all the numbers he piles up DISAPPEARS in the second half of important games.

And Singletary is the most overated player in the history of Chicago sports.

[NeverSurrender]

Tom Brady - No shit. One of the best QB's ever. I say this as a JETS fan. Guy is a winner, one of the best ever.

Mike Vick - Seriously? Who in the fuck thinks this guy is even close? Not even talking about Dogs. Talking about being a good QB. Vick? Jesus, kill me now.

For guys who never won shit, Donovan is light years ahead of him.

Steve Smith gets my vote, FWIW.

Not for a while. Cris Crater, Andre Reed and Tim Brown have to get in first, and that may take 10 -15 years.

[bane]

Not for a while. Cris Crater, Andre Reed and Tim Brown have to get in first, and that may take 10 -15 years.

Yep. I'd say Drew Pearson too.

[Machado]

Champ Bailey, DB, Denver Broncos (1999) — Another year, another Pro Bowl — that makes 11 in 13 seasons.

How is this guy a lock? Of all the players listed in that category, this one name jumped out at me.

[NeverSurrender]

Not for a while. Cris Crater, Andre Reed and Tim Brown have to get in first, and that may take 10 -15 years.

Yep. I'd say Drew Pearson too.

Even though Reed, Carter and Brown didn't really play in this "passing era" they did play in the beginning of it, and it looks like the QBs will get all the credit in this passing era, while wrs get left behind. Marvin Harrison is coming up too in a couple of years. The fact carter isn't in, is a crime against humanity.

[VincesGarterbelt]

And Singletary is the most overated player in the history of Chicago sports


As a die hard Bears fan I agree 100%. With that defensive line he was able to go anywhere on the field that he wanted. They opened the holes and he ran up to make the sack. HAmpton was always double teamed and Steve McMichael was able to generate the rush. Leaving Singletary free to roam the filed and make tackles. He wasn't even the 5 best player on the defenense at anytime except for the Superbowl, where he did dominate the fuck out of that game.
I think Steve McMichael is severly underrated. He just acted like an asshole off the field.

[johnk5150]

And Singletary is the most overated player in the history of Chicago sports


As a die hard Bears fan I agree 100%. With that defensive line he was able to go anywhere on the field that he wanted. They opened the holes and he ran up to make the sack. HAmpton was always double teamed and Steve McMichael was able to generate the rush. Leaving Singletary free to roam the filed and make tackles. He wasn't even the 5 best player on the defenense at anytime except for the Superbowl, where he did dominate the fuck out of that game.
I think Steve McMichael is severly underrated. He just acted like an asshole off the field.

I'm not saying Marshall and Wilson were better than Singletary, but 7 career INTs at middle linebacker in the most revered history of defenses is not cutting it.

[NeverSurrender]

You two sound like morons. Like the only thing he was good for was his football playing. His leadrship was ten times times his football skill.

I can't believe a Vikes fans has to stick up for your player. Like being the 5th best guy on that defense is bad.

[Cotton-Gin]

While he is young still, of Aaron Rodgers plays like he has the past couple seasons, he will be a lock for sure.

And Tim Tebow, this coming season he will pass for 5,000, rush for 1,000 and the Broncos will go undefeated.

[johnk5150]

You two sound like morons. Like the only thing he was good for was his football playing. His leadrship was ten times times his football skill.

He led by making his eyes real wide? That defense needed no leading. Buddy Ryan assembled about the scariest eleven players you could assemble.

I know the NFC had some good teams in that era, but that team should have won at least 2 SBs and probably 3. There was no excuse for losing in '86 and they should have beaten SF at home in the NFC Championsip game in '89.

[NeverSurrender]

You two sound like morons. Like the only thing he was good for was his football playing. His leadrship was ten times times his football skill.

He led by making his eyes real wide? That defense needed no leading. Buddy Ryan assembled about the scariest eleven players you could assemble.

I know the NFC had some good teams in that era, but that team should have won at least 2 SBs and probably 3. There was no excuse for losing in '86 and they should have beaten SF at home in the NFC Championsip game in '89.

Oh boy. Now let's pretend we didn't need him at all.

[Pimp_From_The_Grave]

Champ Bailey, DB, Denver Broncos (1999) — Another year, another Pro Bowl — that makes 11 in 13 seasons.

How is this guy a lock? Of all the players listed in that category, this one name jumped out at me.

Are you kidding me?

[johnk5150]

Oh boy. Now let's pretend we didn't need him at all.

Not calling him shitty. Urlacher is a hundred times the foorball player Singletary was. Because he has to be.

[NeverSurrender]

I don't know how great he was. i just believe the whole "this guy doesn't matter" crap. Football is a team game.

Most opposing NFC North fans think Urlacher is one of the most ovverrated players of our generation. It's funny how different people think things. Though I'm guessing your opinion of Singletary goes against popular opinion among Bears fans.