Unemployment rate falls to 8.3%...helps Obama's re-election

[RATTdrools]

The stock market surged yesterday on the great labor news! Economists called it a "touchdown"!

What excuses will the Repukes use now when the economy is getting better?

[Danzig in the Dark]

The stock market surged yesterday on the great labor news! Economists called it a "touchdown"!

What excuses will the Repukes use now when the economy is getting better?

He's a Muslim!
Where's the birth certificate?!?

[joey64]

the government can manipulate these stats any way that they want, to begin with this number does not really reflect the number of unemployed people, you should see the formula they use to come up with this percent, & don't think that Obama would not do something to influence this figure if he thought it would get him some votes, that is what is called the power of incumbancy

so the stock market index goes up, does this help anybody in the real world?

[RATTdrools]

the government can manipulate these stats any way that they want, to begin with this number does not really reflect the number of unemployed people, you should see the formula they use to come up with this percent, & don't think that Obama would not do something to influence this figure if he thought it would get him some votes, that is what is called the power of incumbancy

so the stock market index goes up, does this help anybody in the real world?

Of course it does! I made money trading and so did millions of others! Plus anyone who has a 401K made money!

[RATTdrools]

The stock market surged yesterday on the great labor news! Economists called it a "touchdown"!

What excuses will the Repukes use now when the economy is getting better?

He's a Muslim!
Where's the birth certificate?!?

LMAO! Trump got his big fat wrinkled ass owned when Obama showed him his official birth certificate!

What's so INSANE about that is the State Department verifies the citizenship of all candidates before they run anyway!

[brotherplanet]

A jump in the stock market for just one day is nothing to celebrate. It's had some pretty bad days since that original post above was made.

8.3% is still fucking HORRIBLE!!!

Remember when the unemployment rate reached 3% under Bush people were pissed and now we're supposed to be happy with 8.3%???

Look, anything over 5% is a recession (just pay attention to when the press starts using that word. Did you miss it this time around? That's okay, because after we're finally in good shape we'll be in a recession again someday, so pay attention when it happens)

By the way... The only people counted as unemployed are the ones collecting unemployment checks. Once you're checks run out the government automatically considers you employed even though you still don't have a job.

Here are the real numbers




What is U6 unemployment rate ?

The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over



http://www.portalseven.com/employment/u ... oYear=2012



Go Obama!

[DEATH ROW JOE]

the government can manipulate these stats any way that they want,

No they can't. You're obviously financially illiterate. These numbers move the markets. They are not manipulated month to month for political purposes.

A jump in the stock market for just one day is nothing to celebrate. It's had some pretty bad days since that original post above was made.

The stock market has nearly doubled since early 2009.

Remember when the unemployment rate reached 3% under Bush people were pissed and now we're supposed to be happy with 8.3%???

The unemployment rate never reached 3% under Bush. The U6 rate according to the graph YOU posted was 10% in 2004.

Let's look at private sector job growth during Bush's first term:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001

Jan 2001: 111.631 million employed in the private sector
Jan 2005: 110.718 million employed in the private sector
913,000 private sector jobs lost during Bush's first term

Now let's look at private sector job growth during Bush's second term:

Jan 2005:110.718 million employed in the private sector
Jan 2009: 110.985 million employed in the private sector
267,000 private sector jobs created during Bush's second term.

Now let's look at private sector job growth last month:

Jan 2012: 110.478 million employed in the private sector
Feb 2012: 110.711 million employed in the private sector
233,000 jobs added to the private sector last month.

In one month, Obama added almost as many jobs to the private sector as Bush did during his second term.

Net job loss during Bush's 8 years: private sector employment contracted by 646,000 during Bush's 8 years in office. Bush was the first president in history to serve 8 years without expanding private sector employment.

Look, anything over 5% is a recession

No offense but you are a fucking moron. Based on your definition of a recession, the economy was in recession for Reagan's entire presidency. The unemployment rate did not fall below 7% until late 1986.


The recession ended in July 2009. For unemployment to fall, real GDP has to grow between 2.5 to 3% because the population grows at 1% and productivity grows at 2%. Real GDP grew 3% in 2010 and 1.7% in 2011 and that is why the unemployment rate is falling very slowly. Real GDP has grown more than 3% only 3 times in the past decade.

Let's compare Bush's 3rd year to Obama's 3rd year. Under Bush you had real GDP growth of 2.5% with expanding govt spending and residential real estate driving growth. With Obama, you have residential real estate and govt spending both falling in 2011 and pulling down growth. Investment in equipment and software (business investment) accounted for 2/3 of the growth under Obama while under Bush it only accounted for 10% of the growth. Bush benefited from a housing bubble and a defense build up. Obama is dealing with the after math of a housing bubble and a defense wind down as well as cuts in govt spending at the state and local level.

Table 1.1.2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product

[brotherplanet]

Did you really write... The recession ended in July 2009? That's hysterical!!!



About my 5% comment. Did you read what I wrote afterwards?

Let me try this again for you... The next time we have low unemployment at about 2-3% and it goes up to 5% pay attention to how it's reported.

You do know the housing bubble popped while Bush was president, right? He benefited from this?

[brotherplanet]

At the current rate you're showing instead of having at least 13,000,000 Americans out of work we'll have about 10,500,000 out of work come November.

And again,.. Those are only the ones actually collecting unemployment checks.

Good job Obama!

[Skate4RnR]

Lots of jobs are being created by American companies, just not here. Why am I supposed to believe that they'll ever come back?

[brotherplanet]

Yeah, I think Apple is hiring more Chinese workers.

[tin00can]

Unemployment goes up under Obama = he sucks, he's killing jobs!

Unemployment goes down under Obama = he sucks, he's manipulating the numbers!

Again...I didn't vote for Obama in 08 and I won't for him (or anybody the republicans throw against him) this year. However, if you're gonna blame him for unemployment going up, you have to give him credit for it going down. Unless you're like Bahston-retahded. Then you're free to be that inconsistent.

[Skate4RnR]

You voted for McCain?

[tin00can]

You voted for McCain?

No. Third party. But I'm a voting hipster, I was doing that before it was cool (started out with Perot).

[Skate4RnR]

I vote third party too. That's what it's called when you vote Democrat in Kansass.

[brotherplanet]

Unemployment goes up under Obama = he sucks, he's killing jobs!

Unemployment goes down under Obama = he sucks, he's manipulating the numbers!

Again...I didn't vote for Obama in 08 and I won't for him (or anybody the republicans throw against him) this year. However, if you're gonna blame him for unemployment going up, you have to give him credit for it going down. Unless you're like Bahston-retahded. Then you're free to be that inconsistent.

I'd give the guy credit if it actually went down more than what they're saying, but going from 8.5% to 8.3% is nothing to get excited over - especially when you look at the real numbers, which fluctuate between 15% - 20%.

[tin00can]

Actually, given how unemployment has been over the past four years, it IS reason for at least...well, not feeling terrible. It's a step in the right direction.

[refundpolicy]

Did you really write... The recession ended in July 2009? That's hysterical!!!

You do understand what a recession is, right?

[MurrayFiend]

Did you really write... The recession ended in July 2009? That's hysterical!!!

You do understand what a recession is, right?

I jus' know it as what's ha'enning to my hairline.

[Skate4RnR]

It's when ma band has ta go backs into tha studio and record the same ol' shit againe.

[Danzig in the Dark]

It's when ma band has ta go backs into tha studio and record the same ol' shit againe.

[brotherplanet]

Actually, given how unemployment has been over the past four years, it IS reason for at least...well, not feeling terrible. It's a step in the right direction.

No, because we've seen it do this before over the last four years and then go right back up. Now, if it turns into a steady decline, even a slow one that keeps moving in the right direction, that would be something hopeful.

[brotherplanet]

Did you really write... The recession ended in July 2009? That's hysterical!!!

You do understand what a recession is, right?

Please explain and then when you're done please explain why this is still being called a recession by almost every news agency out there. I want to hear this (well... Read it).

[DEATH ROW JOE]

Did you really write... The recession ended in July 2009? That's hysterical!!!

You do understand what a recession is, right?

Please explain and then when you're done please explain why this is still being called a recession by almost every news agency out there. I want to hear this (well... Read it).

You continue to prove how fucking stupid you are. Every major news agency says the recession officially ended in June 2009:





The National Bureau of Economic Reserach dates peaks and troughs of the business cycle. The trough is dated June 2009. I was actually off a month. Trough means the economy stopped contracting and started to expand.

US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

Here they explain why they date the trough June 2009. They also point out that the unemployment peaks well after the trough of the business cycle (ie: the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator).
http://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html

The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators. The trough dates for these indicators are:
Macroeconomic Advisers' monthly GDP (June)
The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
Their index of monthly GDI (July)
An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
Index of Industrial Production (June)
Real personal income less transfers (October)
Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
Payroll survey employment (December)
Household survey employment (December)

The committee concluded that the choice of June 2009 as the trough month for economic activity was consistent with the later trough months in the labor-market indicators–aggregate hours and employment–for two reasons. First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the fourth quarter as the trough month. The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity. Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date. In particular, in 2001-03, the trough in payroll employment occurred 21 months after the NBER trough date. In 2009, the NBER trough date is 6 months before the trough in payroll employment. In both the 2001-03 and 2009 cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.

The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers. There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date. The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter. The second was that real GDI is a more comprehensive measure of income than real personal income less transfers, as it includes additional sources of income such as undistributed corporate profits. The committee's use of income-side measures, notably real GDI, is based on the accounting principle that the value of output equals the sum of the incomes that arise from producing the output. Apart from a random statistical discrepancy, real GDI satisfies that equality while real personal income does not.

[brotherplanet]

Unless of course you watch the news and they still refer to it as a recession regardless of what they print.


So... We should vote for Obama because unemployment went from 8.5% to 8.3%?

Oh... Wait... Look... FORBES is still calling it a recession

Is The End Of The 'Great Recession' In Sight? Wait.. is it in SIGHT? You mean it's not over?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/20 ... -in-sight/


And lookie here... They're referring to the Recession in the present tense...

http://www.seattlepi.com/business/press ... 423213.php


Now, while you may be right and the recession might be considered over, there are still news outlets speaking as if the recession is ongoing.

I just wish those 13,000,000 people still unemployed get the memo that the recession is over.

[KneelandBobDylan]

Unless of course you watch the news and they still refer to it as a recession regardless of what they print.


So... We should vote for Obama because unemployment went from 8.5% to 8.3%?

Oh... Wait... Look... FORBES is still calling it a recession

Is The End Of The 'Great Recession' In Sight? Wait.. is it in SIGHT? You mean it's not over?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/20 ... -in-sight/


And lookie here... They're referring to the Recession in the present tense...

http://www.seattlepi.com/business/press ... 423213.php


Now, while you may be right and the recession might be considered over, there are still news outlets speaking as if the recession is ongoing.

I just wish those 13,000,000 people still unemployed get the memo that the recession is over.

I wish the "job creators" sitting on their huge piles of cash thanks to Bush's tax cut would, you know, start creating jobs.

[Skate4RnR]

That ain't ever gonna happen. We're fucked, it's over for this country. Rome's Picasso period has passed.

[DEATH ROW JOE]

Now, while you may be right and the recession might be considered over, there are still news outlets speaking as if the recession is ongoing.

LMFAO, you're funny. You're fucking stupid as hell but very funny.

You linked to an opinion piece, not a news article. You linked to an editorial in Forbes that is pushing a libertarian agenda and claiming the economy would be "booming" had govt. not intervened. You are too stupid to realize the author is pushing an agenda and it suits that agenda to claim there has been no recovery. You might as well linked to Fox News or a Rush Limbaugh rant.

Here's the crux of his opinion:
After five years of governments’ trying to rectify the credit crunch we are left wondering how things would have fared if no one had stepped in and bailed out banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) and the banks of the West had been left to go to blazes with the market being allowed to pick up the pieces.

It’s tempting to think that by now we would be back in a boom like Asia and Russia were in the 1990’s.

It's blatantly obvious that the recession ended in summer of 2009. Private investment went from crashing at an annualized rate of 47% to expanding at 30+%.



Here is industrial production which you can see turn around in summer 2009:


There is no debate over whether or not the economy is expanding or contracting. It is expanding and not in recession. Anyone who says otherwise simply has their facts wrong.

I just wish those 13,000,000 people still unemployed get the memo that the recession is over.

You have a hard time reading apparently. The NBER very clearly pointed out that the employment cycle lags the business cycle. So there could be 20 million still unemployed and it would not mean the economy is in recession.

In particular, in 2001-03, the trough in payroll employment occurred 21 months after the NBER trough date.

Listen stupid. Look at this graph. The shaded area is the recession that took place between March and Nov 2001. You can see payroll jobs reached their trough in mid 2003 and payroll jobs did not reach their pre-recession level until early 2005, a full 3.5 years after the recession ended.



Here is a comparison between Bush's first term and Obama's first term. Obama's creating private sector jobs much more rapidly while shedding public sector jobs. Bush's employment recovery was driven by govt jobs.



Now here is the cover of a book published in Oct 2003. Note the plug given to it by Steve Forbes. 3.5 million private sector jobs lost between Jan 2001 and Oct 2003 was called "The Bush Boom." If McCain was President, Forbes magazine would have announced the "McCain Boom" a long time ago.

[brotherplanet]

So you don't think Forbes has editors? They just let their writers run with total abandon?

Okay.


Anyway...

So, what would you say to those 13,000,000 people still unemployed who didn't get the memo that the recession is over?

[tin00can]

So you don't think Forbes has editors? They just let their writers run with total abandon?

Okay.


Anyway...

So, what would you say to those 13,000,000 people still unemployed who didn't get the memo that the recession is over?

When by your definition the recession is over, what will you say to the people that are still unemployed and didn't get the message that it ended?

Cool question, brah.