Killeverything's (New)NeverEndingBaseballThread

[killeverything]

We also signed John Buck to a 3 year deal. Sweet. A catcher!

I didn't like him in Toronto at first. Lots of defensive screw-ups early on, and I understand that was his reputation in Kansas City as well. But maybe Jose Molina was giving him some guidance; he was looking a lot better towards the end of the season. Offensively he's OK, some power, and his average went up in the second half of the season. I think he was more confident after he made the All-Star team.

Have fun with Buck, anyway.

I'm impartial to Buck personally. I don't think he'll fare more than league average.

Like what Murrayfiend said, I didn't see too much of a jump in Toronto. His LD% basically stayed the same. His cumulative batting stats increased though. Like with his OPS+89 BAA.290 and SLG.522 he did bat .307 with RiSP though.

He had a 1.7WARP with a -7 defensive ranking.

He'll be interesting to watch that's for sure.

Oh and the MFY hire Larry Rothschild as a pitching coach.

http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/201 ... ild_a.html

Considering the smash up job he did with Zambrano, it'll be fun to see how he handles "Bullpen Ace" AJ Burnett.

[TawnyVonJagger]

We also signed John Buck to a 3 year deal. Sweet. A catcher!

I didn't like him in Toronto at first. Lots of defensive screw-ups early on, and I understand that was his reputation in Kansas City as well. But maybe Jose Molina was giving him some guidance; he was looking a lot better towards the end of the season. Offensively he's OK, some power, and his average went up in the second half of the season. I think he was more confident after he made the All-Star team.

Have fun with Buck, anyway.

He's definitely an upgrade from John Baker. I like Shake n Bake, he's a nice guy, but he's a HORRID catcher, and before he got hurt, his bat was meh. We'll see what happens I guess. What is it, 126 days to ST?

Oh and the MFY hire Larry Rothschild as a pitching coach.

http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/201 ... ild_a.html

Considering the smash up job he did with Zambrano, it'll be fun to see how he handles "Bullpen Ace" AJ Burnett.

[johnk5150]

Hey look...a meaningful game being played in the fall in Wrigley!

[killeverything]

Joey Votto is your NL MVP.

http://bbwaa.com/

[Facedown]

Tigers sign V-Mart 4yr/50mil.
Yankees decline to offer Derek Jeter arbitration.

[Facedown]

Giants resign Huff.

[SkyDog112046]

I am really stating to fucking hate Theo Epstein. Yeah, I know he gets credit for 2004 and 2007 but in reality those were Duquette's team and Lucchino's team.

He pussyfoot with Texiera and lost him over short money. He let Bay go and brought in Cameron. He let Alex Gonzalez go and replaced him with Scutarro. He grossly overpaid Lackey who has historically sucked in Fenway. He extended Beckett for no reason. He refused to part with Ellsbury when he was worth something. And now he let one of the few productive bats in the lineup in Martinez walk away. And he is probably going to lose Beltre too.

I have no problem with bridge years. In fact I would have preferred that they made no signings last year other than retaining Gonzalez and let the AAA kids come up and fill in the gaps and saved some of the money for this off season and/or next. But all Theo is doing is tying up money in the wrong players while letting the decent one's walk all the while escalating salary to the point where they are going to be hamstrung in a few years.

[MurrayFiend]

Mets introduced their new manager today:

NEW YORK -- Terry Collins chased jobs all the way to Japan and China in the 11 years since he last managed a major league club just to find a place in a dugout. Rejuvenating the Mets, though, might be his toughest challenge of all.

Collins was introduced today as the 20th manager in the history of the Mets, a franchise in the midst of an overhaul since missing out on the playoffs for the fourth straight season. Collins, the team's minor league field coordinator last year, signed a 2-year contract with a club option for 2013.

New general manager Sandy Alderson chose Collins over fellow Mets employees Bob Melvin, Chip Hale and Wally Backman. The 61-year-old Collins succeeds Jerry Manuel, who was fired along with general manager Omar Minaya in October, and will try to revitalize a club that languished near the bottom of the NL East the past two seasons.

More: http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2010/1 ... ins_a.html

Oh, and:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRuboEJPdBM

[killeverything]

I am really stating to fucking hate Theo Epstein. Yeah, I know he gets credit for 2004 and 2007 but in reality those were Duquette's team and Lucchino's team.

He pussyfoot with Texiera and lost him over short money. He let Bay go and brought in Cameron. He let Alex Gonzalez go and replaced him with Scutarro. He grossly overpaid Lackey who has historically sucked in Fenway. He extended Beckett for no reason. He refused to part with Ellsbury when he was worth something. And now he let one of the few productive bats in the lineup in Martinez walk away. And he is probably going to lose Beltre too.

I have no problem with bridge years. In fact I would have preferred that they made no signings last year other than retaining Gonzalez and let the AAA kids come up and fill in the gaps and saved some of the money for this off season and/or next. But all Theo is doing is tying up money in the wrong players while letting the decent one's walk all the while escalating salary to the point where they are going to be hamstrung in a few years.

Meh.

I think his biggest fuckup was keeping Jacoby Overatedsby.

Losing Bay kinda sucked, but what he wanted I think it was wise to not re-sign him.

Not having AGonz blows, especially when the rumor-mill states that Scutaro is potentially on the trade block.

I'm not so sure I would've given V-Mart what he wanted either. Losing his bat sucks, but I don't think I would've tied up 4 years with him. Aside from offensively, he's not a good catcher.

Lackey for 5 is a head scratch. It looks like their discussing bringing Carlos Pena back ( who had a down year ).

Teix was never going to sign here. His wife wanted to live in NY.


Oh and Josh Hamilton is your AL MVP.

[Machado]

Buster Olney's comments regarding Yankees/Jeter contract talks:

The Yankees' belief is that their current three-year, $45 million offer is fair, and that by offering arbitration to Jeter, they essentially would bail him out after a down year. Jeter might make between $22 million and $23 million through arbitration. The Yankees feel that in the past, Jeter has fairly negotiated from his standing in the marketplace -- when he went to arbitration in 1999, when he negotiated a 10-year, $189 million deal in 2001. And now the Yankees feel these talks should reflect Jeter's place in the market; they also believe that no other team would be willing to pay him what they have offered.

Here's one big factor working against Jeter in this negotiation: While the Yankees want him and are offering him above what his market value is, they operate in the knowledge that if Jeter doesn't re-sign -- if he actually walks away -- then his departure would not be a mortal blow to their pennant hopes in 2011. If Jeter walked away in 2001, that would have been different; he was an exceptional player then.

Now he is a good player, but far from irreplaceable.

[killeverything]

Buster Olney's comments regarding Yankees/Jeter contract talks:

The Yankees' belief is that their current three-year, $45 million offer is fair, and that by offering arbitration to Jeter, they essentially would bail him out after a down year. Jeter might make between $22 million and $23 million through arbitration. The Yankees feel that in the past, Jeter has fairly negotiated from his standing in the marketplace -- when he went to arbitration in 1999, when he negotiated a 10-year, $189 million deal in 2001. And now the Yankees feel these talks should reflect Jeter's place in the market; they also believe that no other team would be willing to pay him what they have offered.

Here's one big factor working against Jeter in this negotiation: While the Yankees want him and are offering him above what his market value is, they operate in the knowledge that if Jeter doesn't re-sign -- if he actually walks away -- then his departure would not be a mortal blow to their pennant hopes in 2011. If Jeter walked away in 2001, that would have been different; he was an exceptional player then.

Now he is a good player, but far from irreplaceable.

He won't walk away, but how funny would it be seeing Captain playing somewhere like Washington?

I looked more into it. The Sox offered Vmart 4/42 and were outbid.

They offered arbitration to Beltre, declined on Hall and Varitek.

I think Tek would've made a serviceable back up, especially since Saltamacchia hasn't proven anything yet.

[killeverything]

It looks Pettitte is leaning towards a return to the MFY in 2011.

"Andy Pettitte is leaning toward returning to the Yankees in 2011, an industry source told Newsday, and has the support of his family in doing so."

This is huge for NY, much more important than the Jeter situation IMO. This would give NY a rotation of CC, Pettitte, Hughes, and Burnett, with the goal still to slot Lee into the #2 spot.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ ... -1.2491173

[johnk5150]

It looks Pettitte is leaning towards a return to the MFY in 2011.

"Andy Pettitte is leaning toward returning to the Yankees in 2011, an industry source told Newsday, and has the support of his family in doing so."

This is huge for NY, much more important than the Jeter situation IMO. This would give NY a rotation of CC, Pettitte, Hughes, and Burnett, with the goal still to slot Lee into the #2 spot.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ ... -1.2491173

240 regualar season and 19 post season wins. He's gotta be a lock for the hall doesn't he?

[killeverything]

It looks Pettitte is leaning towards a return to the MFY in 2011.

"Andy Pettitte is leaning toward returning to the Yankees in 2011, an industry source told Newsday, and has the support of his family in doing so."

This is huge for NY, much more important than the Jeter situation IMO. This would give NY a rotation of CC, Pettitte, Hughes, and Burnett, with the goal still to slot Lee into the #2 spot.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ ... -1.2491173

240 regualar season and 19 post season wins. He's gotta be a lock for the hall doesn't he?

You would think, but there's that whole steroid thing. And the Veteran's Committee have been adament about keeping those guys out.

[SkyDog112046]

It looks Pettitte is leaning towards a return to the MFY in 2011.

"Andy Pettitte is leaning toward returning to the Yankees in 2011, an industry source told Newsday, and has the support of his family in doing so."

This is huge for NY, much more important than the Jeter situation IMO. This would give NY a rotation of CC, Pettitte, Hughes, and Burnett, with the goal still to slot Lee into the #2 spot.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ ... -1.2491173

240 regualar season and 19 post season wins. He's gotta be a lock for the hall doesn't he?

You would think, but there's that whole steroid thing. And the Veteran's Committee have been adament about keeping those guys out.

Yup. Steroids and not anywhere close to the magical 300 wins. If a pitcher gets to #300 he's a lock, anything less than that and you have to start looking at the intangibles. His intangibles include "caught doing steroids". I don't think he gets in.

[johnk5150]

You would think, but there's that whole steroid thing. And the Veteran's
Committee have been adament about keeping those guys out.

Jesus. I totally forgot about that. Why is it worse with the hitters than the pitchers? Clemens won't make it either then will he? Fuck those asshats that ruined my generational statistical arguments. They fucked up my sport.

[killeverything]

You would think, but there's that whole steroid thing. And the Veteran's
Committee have been adament about keeping those guys out.

Jesus. I totally forgot about that. Why is it worse with the hitters than the pitchers? Clemens won't make it either then will he? Fuck those asshats that ruined my generational statistical arguments. They fucked up my sport.

Word.

The deal with Pettitte and with ARod is, I think that they might have more of a chance than McGwire, Bonds, Manny or Clemens because they admitted it.

Maybe.

Me personally. I don't think any of them should get in, but the argument in itself is too rhetorical.

[killeverything]

Here comes some more

John Dewan's Stat Of The Week

MVP and Rookie of the Year – Who Should Have Won?

November 24, 2010

Now that the Rookies of the Year and Most Valuable Players have been announced, which players were most deserving?

Josh Hamilton won the American League MVP by a comfortable margin, but Total Runs (see below) and other analytical metrics depict a closer race. While Hamilton sat out much of September resting an injury, Robinson Cano and Jose Bautista kept producing and surpassed Hamilton in the Total Runs standings, with Bautista edging Cano by a single run in the end.

AL MVP Candidates

Player Total Runs fWAR bWAR
Jose Bautista 158 6.9 5.6
Robinson Cano 157 6.4 6.1
Josh Hamilton 145 8.0 6.0
Felix Hernandez 144 6.2 6.0
Evan Longoria 143 6.9 7.7

While Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) still rates Hamilton as the best in the league, Baseball-Reference’s version (bWAR) prefers Evan Longoria and gives Cano the edge over Hamilton. MVP runner-up Miguel Cabrera’s weak defense at first base dragged him below the analytical leaders, making any of Bautista, Cano, or Hamilton an acceptable choice. Personally, I would have voted for Cano.

Over in the National League, the analytics say that NL MVP Joey Votto was the right choice. He led a competitive field with 148 Total Runs, and also led in the Fangraphs version of WAR. Matt Holliday finished twelfth in MVP voting but second in Total Runs with 146, while MVP runner-up Albert Pujols finished third with 144.

NL MVP Candidates

Player Total Runs fWAR bWAR
Joey Votto 148 7,4 6.2
Matt Holliday 146 6.9 5.5
Albert Pujols 144 7.3 7.2
Carlos Gonzalez 143 6.0 4.5
Jayson Werth 140 5.0 5.2
Ryan Zimmerman 140 7.2 5.3

The American League rookie crop was thin, but Total Runs loved Austin Jackson’s full season of production at the plate and in Detroit’s center field. The voters, however, selected Neftali Feliz, who had an excellent season as the closer for the AL’s eventual champion. Both versions of Wins Above Replacement suggest that Brian Matusz deserved better than three third place votes he received. I’m good with Feliz winning despite Jackson’s bigger Total Runs figure.

AL ROY Candidates

Player Total Runs fWAR bWAR
Austin Jackson 134 3.8 2.5
Brennan Boesch 75 0.6 1.3
Neftali Feliz 73 1.7 2.4
Brian Matusz 71 2.7 3.1
John Jaso 67 2.5 2.4

In any other year, several NL rookies would have had a chance at the award. The voters turned this into a two-man race between Total Runs leader Jason Heyward and late May call-up Buster Posey, with Posey winning in the end. Total Runs and both versions of WAR prefer Heyward’s full season of production, but the voters might be figuring that Posey would have surpassed Heyward’s number if he hadn’t spent two months in AAA. I would have voted for Heyward, but Posey’s choice is fine as well.

NL ROY Candidates

Player Total Runs fWAR bWAR
Jason Heyward 123 5.0 4.4
Ike Davis 102 3.4 2.5
Gaby Sanchez 94 2.4 0.7
Buster Posey 92 3.9 3.0
Starlin Castro 90 2.0 0.4

A few words about Total Runs and Runs Created. In The Fielding Bible—Volume II, we introduced “Total Runs”, a method to combine a player’s offensive and defensive contributions into one number. Total Runs incorporates a hitter’s Runs Created and Baserunning Runs on offense with his Runs Saved and a Positional Adjustment on defense to fairly compare players across different positions.

Since then, we’ve added Pitching Runs Created (PRC), an effort by David Gassko of The Hardball Times to translate a pitcher’s performance to the same scale as a hitter’s Runs Created.

Since relievers often pitch in more crucial situations, their performance is more valuable than their statistics would otherwise suggest. We can measure the significance of the situation each pitcher faces with Leverage Index. The average situation has a 1.0 Leverage Index, while a tie game at the start of the bottom of the ninth rates at 2.3.

We account for pitchers’ performance under pressure by multiplying their Pitching Runs Created by their average Leverage Index over the course of the season.

[killeverything]

*Bump*

Goddamnit.

Looking to provide stability with the core players, the Colorado Rockies finalized a contract extension with shortstop Troy Tulowitzki that ties him to the team through the 2020 season and gurantees him $157.75 million, major league sources confirmed to FOXSports.com.
....
Tulowitzki signed a six-year contract, with an option, prior to the 2008 season. The new deal incorporates the final three guaranteed seasons of Tulowitzki’s current contract — $5.5 million in 2011, $8.25 million in 2012 and $10 million in 2013 — and guarantees the $15 million option for 2014. It also adds six additional guaranteed seasons worth $119 million.

That's fucking insane. This seems like a massive over-pay ( not unlike Helton ), especially with his injury history.

Oh well at least he won't be a MFY.

[Machado]

Dan Shulman, Orel Hershiser and Bobby Valentine will be in the booth for ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball next season, the network announced Wednesday.

Shulman has been a radio voice for Sunday Night Baseball as well as other ESPN TV games. Hershiser worked on Sunday Night Baseball last season, while Valentine, a former player and manager, joins the booth for the first time.

"Dan has broad knowledge of the game, an ability to articulate baseball's analytics and a conversational tone which will bring out the best in our analysts," ESPN executive vice president, production Norby Williamson said in a statement. "Pairing him with Orel Hershiser, who made great contributions in the Sunday Night Baseball booth last season, and the unique opinions and fresh perspective of Bobby Valentine, will make for a dynamic Sunday Night team."

The team replaces Jon Miller and Joe Morgan, whose contracts were not renewed after last season. Miller and Morgan had been the voices of Sunday Night Baseball for 21 seasons.

"Jon and Joe contributed greatly to the success of Sunday Night Baseball for the past 21 seasons," Williamson said in a statement. "Over the last two decades, Joe went from Hall of Fame player to one of his sport's top analysts and Jon's Hall of Fame voice and tremendous knowledge of the game have connected with baseball fans everywhere. We owe them our deepest thanks for an outstanding body of work."

Jon Sciambi, the voice of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN Radio last season, returns with a new partner in 2011. Former major leaguer Chris Singleton, who has been part of Baseball Tonight since 2008 and who called Monday Night Baseball games on TV in 2009, will be the lead analyst. Singleton previously was a radio analyst for the Chicago White Sox in 2006-07.

[Facedown]

Joe went from Hall of Fame player to one of his sport's top analysts

[Machado]

Joe went from Hall of Fame player to one of his sport's top analysts

that also made me laugh.
clearly ESPN is saying as many positive things they can on paper, while clearly saying just the opposite about Morgan off the record.
typical B.S. statement that won't ruffle any feathers.

very happy that Morgan and Miller are gone. just because they have been in the booth on Sunday night for two decades does not mean they were any good at the job or deserving of the long tenure.

[killeverything]

Joe went from Hall of Fame player to one of his sport's top analysts

that also made me laugh.
clearly ESPN is saying as many positive things they can on paper, while clearly saying just the opposite about Morgan off the record.
typical B.S. statement that won't ruffle any feathers.

very happy that Morgan and Miller are gone. just because they have been in the booth on Sunday night for two decades does not mean they were any good at the job or deserving of the long tenure.

I'm glad to see them gone. How do you go from the greatest 2B of all-time, to the worst baseball broadcaster of all-time. You would think they would be more related.

Hot Stove news. Apparently they're saying that the Mighty Red Sox are the front-runners to sign Jayson Werth over Detroit. Jayson Stark says they could afford both him and Beltre. Leaving the Angels as the most serious bidders for Crawford.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove1 ... id=5847511

Then there's this:

Red Sox source: They're serious about Carl Crawford; they've been in Houston meeting with Crawford and his reps.

http://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo#

Fuck yeah. I'm a big fan of Crawford and would love to see him replace Jacoby Overatedsby.

[Machado]

if you're werth, would you really want to hit the ball for 81 games
in detroit or boston(with the green monster)??

seems like an easy choice to make, unless of course the dollar difference is very wide.

Yankee news:


Jeter's agent Close met with Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner in Tampa.

The Daily News reported that the meeting was the first face-to-face conversation between the two sides since November 8. Indications are that they are still far from an agreement, but talking seems to be a step in the right direction, at the very least.

[killeverything]

if you're werth, would you really want to hit the ball for 81 games
in detroit or boston(with the green monster)??

seems like an easy choice to make, unless of course the dollar difference is very wide.

Yankee news:


Jeter's agent Close met with Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner in Tampa.

The Daily News reported that the meeting was the first face-to-face conversation between the two sides since November 8. Indications are that they are still far from an agreement, but talking seems to be a step in the right direction, at the very least.

I'm not sure how I feel about Werth. His UZR has been declining, but he can produce at a 125OPS+ with above average defense ( which is what plus/minus has him at ). He'd be decent for maybe what Bay got. The deal is is I think he's risky for a long term contract. He's not an elite hitter or fielder. Very very good, but I'm not sure "elite". Yet his WAR has been above 4 for the last three years. So maybe it's "what do I know?" I just wonder if could sustain that kind of production over long term.

Crawford has question marks too at age 29, and being able to play at his level. The problem is he's seeking an 8 year deal, which there is no way in hell Theo does that.

As for Jeter. There is no way in hell he signs anywhere else. It's hysterical to think about, but it ain't gonna happen.

[JakeYonkel]

Crawford is going to be paid way too much for far too long. He's benefitted from being the franchise player of Tampa Bay for so long... but I just don't think he's that good. Honestly, compare him to Brett Gardner... Crawford's got more power, but really they're pretty comparable. And you'd never give that kinda money to Gardner.

Werth... I dunno. I guess if I had to pick one or the other I'd probably go Werth, more bang for the buck, considering what both are going to command.

[SkyDog112046]

I don't want the Sox to go after Crawford or Werth. Both want more money and years then they are worth. Theo already put out 2 really bad contracts last season to Lackey and Beckett. They don't need another one. If they are dead set on spending money they should re-sign Beltre because at least he has proven he can play here. And I hope they aren't stupid enough to extend Drew.

I think they are still in a rebuilding mode and it doesn't make sense to add to the payroll and be stuck with bad contracts they can't unload later on.

I think the roster is going to look something like this in 2 years:
INF
1B/DH - Youkilis
2B - Pedrioa
SS/3B/2B - Lowrey - utility
SS - Iglesias
3B - Middlebrooks
1B/DH - Anderson
C - Saltalamacchia
C - Lavarnway

OUT
Ellsbury
Kalish
Redick
Westmoreland

SP
Lester
Buccholz
Lackey - unfortunately
Beckett - unfortunately
Kelly

RP
Bowden
Bard - closer

They need the most help in the bullpen and could use another outfielder, but it doesn't make sense to tie up a bunch of payroll and then end up dicking around Lester and Buccholz when their contracts come up.

Doubront is on the block now that Farrell is gone. Maybe he will be part of the package going to SD for Gonzalez?

[WhiteHouseSubsAC]

There's a rumor in Philly that Werth has been offered a deal and may re-sign. Evidently he's not commanding top dollar like he thought he would.

[killeverything]

Crawford is going to be paid way too much for far too long. He's benefitted from being the franchise player of Tampa Bay for so long... but I just don't think he's that good. Honestly, compare him to Brett Gardner... Crawford's got more power, but really they're pretty comparable. And you'd never give that kinda money to Gardner.

Werth... I dunno. I guess if I had to pick one or the other I'd probably go Werth, more bang for the buck, considering what both are going to command.

See. I don't know. I like Crawford's play. Although it's been speculated they're going after Crawford to drive up the price for the Angels, who then can't go after Beltre.

I think their main focus is Beltre and Crawford.

Also there's what PKOS said about Werth. If he's not going all out for a huge contract, I could see him wanting to stay in Philly. They've been very competitive the last 3 seasons.

[Facedown]

Don't want Werth. Hit .186 with RISP last year? No thanks.