The NFL Thread

[Machado]

The mob must have touched Carson Palmer. How else can you explain
those passes he threw into coverage?
For a 13 year veteran, Carson sure played like another USC QB that can't play at a high level when it matters most.

[UtahRatt]

Great, cogent football analysis: "it was a bad call because they lost."

If they couldn't convert two 4th downs, how would you expect them to convert the 2 point conversion.



I still hate the new extra point rule. Did before the season and still do.

[UtahRatt]

The mob must have touched Carson Palmer. How else can you explain
those passes he threw into coverage?
For a 13 year veteran, Carson sure played like another USC QB that can't play at a high level when it matters most.

The short version

Silence! I'm praying to the football gods that the Broncos lose.

Dear Football Gods,
Please give Palmer the brain not to make those foolish INT throws

I also under estimate Arizona for some reason. I guess I have a thing about Palmer who has the ability to have some INT games.

[UtahRatt]

1 more game!!! Please let them beat Arizona.. If they go to the bowl they are winning it.. Period.. GO PANTHERS!!!!

Congratulations Kylel and to all the Panther fans on the board.
I've been against them all the way, not giving um credit, underestimating them, talking shit. Now it's my turn to eat crow.

I hope they win the Super Bowl and think they'll destroy Denver. Denver will have a lot harder of a time stopping Cam and the Panthers offense then the Panthers controlling Denver's.

With that said I doubt I'll watch it. To me it would be like wanting to watch Rob Schneider and Ashton Kutcher star in Batman vs Superman.

[UtahRatt]

Peyton was pathetic. He was floating balls everywhere and missin open guys right and left. Their defense and Belichick's arrogance got them there.

I didn't watch. That sucks. I want to see Denver go all the way, but know how Peyton is when it matters. Do you see the Broncos beating AZ/Carolina?

I can't see Denver giving the Panthers a game. Peyton IS done, he's lost the ability to put any zip on the pig. All he can do is hopefully control the ball and just hit those bubble screens and short stuff to the TE and RB's out of the backfield or stuff over the middle. And pray they can run the ball.

As someone once said, defense wins championships. Denver's not lacking there.

But without zip he can't hit his out routs and his deep balls have a lot of hang time.

Defense and experience is what Denver has. Cam and the Panthers haven't been there before. Not sure it will matter, Cam has been playing lights out and the Panthers are fired up. If Denver wins or keeps it close I'll be the most amazed person on the forums.

[Rorysfan]

Great, cogent football analysis: "it was a bad call because they lost."

If they couldn't convert two 4th downs, how would you expect them to convert the 2 point conversion.



I still hate the new extra point rule. Did before the season and still do.

The Pats were the ones who pushed for the rule change.

[cantstopthemusic]

The mob must have touched Carson Palmer. How else can you explain those passes he threw into coverage?

His passing was almost as poor (overall) against Green Bay. The GB defense just didn't hold onto more of them. Once they got down 27-7 against Carolina he didn't have much choice other than to throw on almost every down (and did).

[veritas]

Great, cogent football analysis: "it was a bad call because they lost."

I'm glad you agree and understand because it was that obviously clear and simple.

If the Pat's kicked one FG out of the two they win. Another way of saying, they lost because they didn't kick a FG when they had two chances so where's the argument? There isn't one.

It was a choke like Pete Carroll calling a slant but Belichick pulled a Carroll twice.

It's all across the news headlines, twitter, facebook to ESPN. Belichick was blasted about it in the press conference.

You can cite all the knee-jerk reactions and cliches of "you take the points!!" you want, but the situation of the game at that time indicated that it was a sensible decision, rather than your silly post hoc "analysis" that it was a bad decision because of the ultimate outcome. At the time of the decision, which is how you have to evaluate it, this was the situation:

1. The Patriots realistically needed a touchdown at some point within the remaining 6 minutes of the game, being 8 points down. It was not realistic to expect, given the complete ineptness of the offense for the preceding 54 minutes, that they would get 3 field goal opportunities within the final 6 minutes, so a touchdown at some point was necessary;

2. In the preceding 54 minutes they had not a single offensive drive arrive as close at the 16-yard line. (Their only touchdown was due to a turn-over near the red zone.) In fact, the vast majority of their offensive drives ended on the Patriots side of the field;

3. So, the issue is, given that you need a touchdown within the next 6 minutes, and you may only have one, maybe two(?), more possessions, what is your best chance to score a touchdown? Is your better chance (1) to gain one-yard on a 4-and-1, leaving you 15 yards from the end zone, or (2) kick a field goal (assuming you make it), and rely on moving the ball at least 60-70 yards on the next possession? (assuming, of course, that you stop Denver's next possession on a three-and-out at their 20, or within a reasonable period before they gain much yards or waste much time).

4. Recall that the Patriots hadn't had a single 60-yard drive the entire game so far..... So, there is little empirical evidence in the preceding 54 minutes to suggest that the Patriots are likely to drive the entire length of the field again.

5. Under these circumstances, what is so crazy, so "arrogant," about looking at the course of the game, and thinking, "you know, chances are we might not get into the red zone again this game -- this is our best chance to score a touchdown."

Look, at the end of the road, reasonable people can disagree about what they might have done, but you have zero football IQ if you think that going for it at that time of the game, with that score, in that location, given the history of prior Patriots' offensive series, was a "terrible" football decision.

[veritas]

Great, cogent football analysis: "it was a bad call because they lost."

If they couldn't convert two 4th downs, how would you expect them to convert the 2 point conversion.

You are missing the point (no pun intended). The 2-point conversion isn't the reason to go for it (although it sure helps the decision to know that you can conceivably tie the game at that point.) The reason to go for it is that even if you score just 6 points, you now can win the game with field goal. A much more attractive prospect to need to only move into field goal position with (give or take) 3-4 minutes left in the game, than needing to score a touchdown on a new drive from your own territory -- something the Patriots hadn't come close to all game.

It's a simple probability estimate. If you need a touchdown within the last few minutes of the game, what is more likely scenario to be able to score a touchdown:

1. Gain one-yard and then have to score a touchdown from the 15-yard line OR

2. Move the ball 60 or 70 yards, at best, on a different possession to score a touchdown. (You have to assume that the Patriots kick off, it's a touchback, you stop Denver three-and-out on their 20, and they punt to your 30, maybe 40 yard line... (they actually were punting better than that, but let's do the best-case scenario))

I would take scenario 1. Given that the Patriots couldn't do fuck-all on offensive the entire game so far, I'll take my chances at making one-yard and seeing if I can move another 15 yards to get into the end zone -- cause I'm not sure, given what I have seen so far, that I am going to ever get there again in this game. (Now, of course, the retarded will chime in with the brilliant observation: "but they did get there again, and scored a touchdown, which shows it was wrong to go for it!" But even the deranged can appreciate how stupid that is.)

Now, if we want to talk about bad decisions, the actual play called on 4th and 1 is a totally different story....

[Crazy Levi]

Veritas, I agree with you it wasn't some kind of a no-brainer, like say, "run the ball" for the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

But you have the best qb in history. The broncos offense sucks. You are gonna get the ball back. Three points with 6 minutes left is huge.

I wasn't surprised the pats went for it. They always do. But seems like "the genius'" calls have been backfiring as of late. A lot.

[Bludegeon]

Well, I got one pick correct..

No way in hell the Broncos win the Superbowl. Hope they do, but, don't see ti happening.

[veritas]

Veritas, I agree with you it wasn't some kind of a no-brainer, like say, "run the ball" for the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

But you have the best qb in history. The broncos offense sucks. You are gonna get the ball back. Three points with 6 minutes left is huge.

I wasn't surprised the pats went for it. They always do. But seems like "the genius'" calls have been backfiring as of late. A lot.

I hear you Levi, but the best qb in history was getting his ass kicked all game long and they couldn't move the ball at all. I don't want to get into Utah Ratt post-hoc reasoning land, but when you look at how they actually scored their touchdown, it was freaking miracle: a 4th-and-20 miracle grab and then another 4th-down miracle throw into the end zone. The probabilities of that drive happening were very, very low -- and we knew that with 6 minutes left to go, because the entire preceding 54 minutes showed us that the Denver defense far outmatched the Patriots offense.

Again, and I say this with respect because I know you have some serious football smarts and because I acknowledge that it was not a no-brainer decision, the 3 points are mostly inconsequential at that point in time. What I mean is that, given the 8-point deficit, it's the touchdown that matters. You need one to win (or to tie!), and so the most important strategic decision is how to maximize your chances of scoring a touchdown with time remaining -- I'd argue, as I did in my nosebleeds above, that the best chance of a touchdown from a probabilistic standpoint was going for it at the 16-yard line. Someone will statistically confirm or disconfirm that, but I am pretty sure that the odds of scoring a touchdown in that scenario were greater than the odds a full-field drive with 3 or less minutes left (following a Denver possession, which I agree, you couldn't place odds of them going anywhere on that drive).

[Machado]

The mob must have touched Carson Palmer. How else can you explain those passes he threw into coverage?

His passing was almost as poor (overall) against Green Bay. The GB defense just didn't hold onto more of them. Once they got down 27-7 against Carolina he didn't have much choice other than to throw on almost every down (and did).

did i overhear correctly, Palmer was very nervous before the GB game last week? how does this 13 year veteran have nerves before the biggest game(s) of his career? UNREAL!

[Machado]

Panthers open as -5.5 favorites over Denver.
I'm sure a lot of money will roll towards Manning and the Broncos this week.

If I had to lay a bet today, I would take Carolina and give the points

[veritas]

I wonder if the line might even go up as the money flows.
I think the Panthers should win this one. I would not underestimate that Denver defense that just dismantled the Patriots, and that alone might keep this one close. But, at the same time, you simply cannot unleash Miller and Ware along the outside in the crazed pass rush you got against Brady because Cam will run for 200 yards if they lose contain they way they could against Brady. They are going to have to balance pass rush with contain, which might mute their best weapon: that insane pass rush.

Panthers aren't as one-dimensional as the Patriots became later this year. I would definitely take the Panthers' offense against the Denver defense, compared to Denver's anemic offense, which I see the Panthers completely shutting down.

Now, watch Denver win 45-14......

[Crazy Levi]

Panthers open as -5.5 favorites over Denver.
I'm sure a lot of money will roll towards Manning and the Broncos this week.

If I had to lay a bet today, I would take Carolina and give the points

I see it the other way around. I'm not a gambler but how couldn't you take the Panthers at 5.5?

By the way, sorry for this moronic question, but if you take the bet at 5.5 today, when the line changes, you are still locked in where you placed the bet, right?

[Machado]

Panthers open as -5.5 favorites over Denver.
I'm sure a lot of money will roll towards Manning and the Broncos this week.

If I had to lay a bet today, I would take Carolina and give the points

I see it the other way around. I'm not a gambler but how couldn't you take the Panthers at 5.5?

By the way, sorry for this moronic question, but if you take the bet at 5.5 today, when the line changes, you are still locked in where you placed the bet, right?

You would still be locked in where the line was when you made the bet.

My thinking is the "world" love Manning, almost as much as the "world" loves Brady, so the money might flow towards Denver in this case.
IMO, the line is about 1 1/2 point higher than I imagined, but that's nitpicking.

[Facedown]

Credit to the Broncos and the refs. Great game.
While the Pats OL was pretty bad, I hope Cannon is out of a job today, the Pats D held the Broncos to 3 points in the 2nd half plus.
Broncos do that against the Panthers and they could get a worse beating than Seattle gave them.
Will Peyton ride into the sunset with a SB loss or will he be back with a new team because of it?

[Bludegeon]

Credit to the Broncos and the refs. Great game.
While the Pats OL was pretty bad, I hope Cannon is out of a job today, the Pats D held the Broncos to 3 points in the 2nd half plus.
Broncos do that against the Panthers and they could get a worse beating than Seattle gave them.
Will Peyton ride into the sunset with a SB loss or will he be back with a new team because of it?

Yep, the refs.

[veritas]

Credit to the Broncos and the refs. Great game.
While the Pats OL was pretty bad, I hope Cannon is out of a job today, the Pats D held the Broncos to 3 points in the 2nd half plus.
Broncos do that against the Panthers and they could get a worse beating than Seattle gave them.
Will Peyton ride into the sunset with a SB loss or will he be back with a new team because of it?

Cannon and Vollmer should have their feet chopped off after that performance.
But it sure didn't help them that the Patriots appeared to use the same fucking silent snap count throughout much of the game, which was teed off by the center's head bob. Miller and Ware read that, and were timing the snap count perfectly.

In some ways, the Patriots lost this game in Miami. The Patriots made little to no effort to win that Week 17 game, and it cost them homefield. Not saying they wouldn't shit the bed in Gillette (see Jets 2010 game), but the problems with the snap count and some the offensive line communication would be much better in your home stadium, along with a bunch of other intangibles.

If we are going after Belichick's "arrogance," it showed up there, in how he played that Miami game. He must have thought Pittsburgh could take Denver, or that a healthy Patriots team could handle Denver anywhere. Wrong.

[Facedown]

Credit to the Broncos and the refs. Great game.
While the Pats OL was pretty bad, I hope Cannon is out of a job today, the Pats D held the Broncos to 3 points in the 2nd half plus.
Broncos do that against the Panthers and they could get a worse beating than Seattle gave them.
Will Peyton ride into the sunset with a SB loss or will he be back with a new team because of it?

Yep, the refs.

Not sure if I'm missing something in your response but I wasn't blaming the refs, I thought they did a decent job.

[Crazy Levi]

It doesn't matter what happens in two weeks Peyton is done. His image as golden boy/endorser/future coach/commentator is too valuable to come back for one more disastrous "Joe Namath in LA" season. There's absolutely no way.

[Machado]

It doesn't matter what happens in two weeks Peyton is done. His image as golden boy/endorser/future coach/commentator is too valuable to come back for one more disastrous "Joe Namath in LA" season. There's absolutely no way.

Manning was done when that neck injury occurred. Even with the help of pain relief and whatever other substances he injected into his body, this is his final game of his NFL career

[Pierce Foreskin]

The mob must have touched Carson Palmer. How else can you explain those passes he threw into coverage?

His passing was almost as poor (overall) against Green Bay. The GB defense just didn't hold onto more of them. Once they got down 27-7 against Carolina he didn't have much choice other than to throw on almost every down (and did).

did i overhear correctly, Palmer was very nervous before the GB game last week? how does this 13 year veteran have nerves before the biggest game(s) of his career? UNREAL!

I think it was due to his busted up index finger on this throwing hand, and not the "big" game atmosphere.
He also probably knows he doesn't have many chances left.

[Tenacious_Dio]

Carson Palmer went full Jake Delhomme yesterday.

[veritas]

It doesn't matter what happens in two weeks Peyton is done. His image as golden boy/endorser/future coach/commentator is too valuable to come back for one more disastrous "Joe Namath in LA" season. There's absolutely no way.

Agreed. This is the perfect stage for him to go out on, regardless of the outcome.

I do think it would have been harder for him to retire if he had just been replaced by Brock and left the stinkfest of that regular season as his final stint in the NFL. Unless he royally shits the bed in the superbowl, his final story has a more redemptive final chapter.

And it's a fair ending: he's been a quality player and seems like a decent enough guy.

[Bludegeon]

Not sure if I'm missing something in your response but I wasn't blaming the refs, I thought they did a decent job.

Usually when one gives any credit to the refs, and I am assuming you are a Pats fan. Pats lost, and credit to refs, usually equals the refs assisted in the win.

I miss something in your response, because you aren't blaming the refs. I figured you were.

[Machado]

Not sure if I'm missing something in your response but I wasn't blaming the refs, I thought they did a decent job.

Usually when one gives any credit to the refs, and I am assuming you are a Pats fan. Pats lost, and credit to refs, usually equals the refs assisted in the win.

I miss something in your response, because you aren't blaming the refs. I figured you were.

not sure how many people care to discuss, but on that 2 point play that could have tied the game, Brady had Gronk open near the back of the end zone. Brady must have been looking at another receiver because its very rare that he misses Gronk, even when covered.

[Crazy Levi]

I don't know about "wide open," looks like the DB could have made a diving play on the ball if Brady had thrown it there. And as usual, there was pressure and Brady had to make a throw.

What say you Ratt, our uncontested expert on all things football?

[UtahRatt]

I don't know about "wide open," looks like the DB could have made a diving play on the ball if Brady had thrown it there. And as usual, there was pressure and Brady had to make a throw.

What say you Ratt, our uncontested expert on all things football?

I made my point pretty fucking clear. If we was talking about pinball I'd pull your name out of the blue and ask for your uncontested dork opinion.

What say you Levi, LET'S MOVE THE FUCK ON, JUST LET IT GO ALREADY! GET OVER IT!