Killeverything's (New)NeverEndingBaseballThread

[killeverything]

Sources tell Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that the Twins will soon sign Joe Mauer to a contract extension.
It sounds like they are making a lot of progress. Even better, separate sources tell Christensen that the deal's basic framework -- years and guaranteed money -- is already agreed upon, leaving only negotiations on deferred payments and other matters. For what it's worth, Christensen is confident that a deal is coming, writing that "it's a matter of when, not if." Fantastic news for Minnesota.

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/78693392.html


I think that's awesome.

[Facedown]

Mariners and Ryan Garko agree to 1yr deal.
Reds aquire 2B Aaron Miles from A's for OF Willy Taveras and IF Ryan Rosales.

[JakeYonkel]

... and then Oakland promptly designates Taveras for assignment. LOL

[Machado]

I just score an 11 x 14 autographed photo of Carl Yastrzemski for my living room.

Hell to the yes.

C'mon now, I had to do it.
Again, Yankees vs sox is the best rivalry in all of sports.

[killeverything]

I just score an 11 x 14 autographed photo of Carl Yastrzemski for my living room.

Hell to the yes.

C'mon now, I had to do it.
Again, Yankees vs sox is the best rivalry in all of sports.

Hey man, no worries.

[Machado]

I just score an 11 x 14 autographed photo of Carl Yastrzemski for my living room.

Hell to the yes.

C'mon now, I had to do it.
Again, Yankees vs sox is the best rivalry in all of sports.

Hey man, no worries.

Look at you-Going for the throat. I see you don't play fair,
That 4 spot in the 2nd was courtesy of Vasquez.
Despite that, Bucky Dent lives on.

[killeverything]

Mariners and Ryan Garko agree to 1yr deal.

That's pretty good actually. They got a quality platoon type player in the prime of his career, for barely above league minimum ( $500,000 ). A 1B/DH type who hits LHP at .311/.391/.491/.882 is nice to have in the line-up.

A lot of talk has been said about Seattle's lack of offense. I thought the big rumor was they were going to trade for Jermaine Dye. Anyways Getting Garko in against LHP would mean he'd have to play 1B which downgrades the defense considerably, since Bradley ( how the fuck is that guy still playing ) will be the DH in those situations.

Though I think that would be worth it, since he provides some power.

[tin00can]

I meant to post this earlier, but PECOTA = Pulling Estimates Completely Out of Their Asses.

No, that isn't mine, I stolded it from somebody.

[killeverything]

I meant to post this earlier, but PECOTA = Pulling Estimates Completely Out of Their Asses.

No, that isn't mine, I stolded it from somebody.

While I semi-agree with that statement. It's shocking the accuracy of the projections close to 90% of the time.

[WhiteHouseSubsAC]

Mariners and Ryan Garko agree to 1yr deal.

That's pretty good actually. They got a quality platoon type player in the prime of his career, for barely above league minimum ( $500,000 ). A 1B/DH type who hits LHP at .311/.391/.491/.882 is nice to have in the line-up.

A lot of talk has been said about Seattle's lack of offense. I thought the big rumor was they were going to trade for Jermaine Dye. Anyways Getting Garko in against LHP would mean he'd have to play 1B which downgrades the defense considerably, since Bradley ( how the fuck is that guy still playing ) will be the DH in those situations.

Though I think that would be worth it, since he provides some power.

So what does that mean for Branyan? For a guy that had a pretty decent year, he's not getting a lot of love.

[JakeYonkel]

Branyan wanted 2 years and nobody bit. He's probably going to wind up being exactly what he was prior to last year - a backup corner IF/DH.

He's got some pop, but he's lousy defensively. Jack Z. took a chance since he was cheap and it worked out, but he won't do it again.

[tin00can]

I meant to post this earlier, but PECOTA = Pulling Estimates Completely Out of Their Asses.

No, that isn't mine, I stolded it from somebody.

While I semi-agree with that statement. It's shocking the accuracy of the projections close to 90% of the time.

Except, for some reason, when it comes to the Angels. Seriously, every year I've seen them they've been off at least eight wins, and usually 10-12. Which may not sound like much, but when it happens every year...

[killeverything]

I meant to post this earlier, but PECOTA = Pulling Estimates Completely Out of Their Asses.

No, that isn't mine, I stolded it from somebody.

While I semi-agree with that statement. It's shocking the accuracy of the projections close to 90% of the time.

Except, for some reason, when it comes to the Angels. Seriously, every year I've seen them they've been off at least eight wins, and usually 10-12. Which may not sound like much, but when it happens every year...

Oh no I agree with you. I just think that when it comes to player evaluation, like personal stats. MARCEL, CHONE, Bill James and Baseball Prospectus are generally spot-on.

As for Pecota/Pythag, I don't take what they're saying to a tee. Although I think their analysis is pretty good for projecting a team's potential. Like for example when a team outplay's their Pythag by a considerable margin, why?

Was it one player having a monster year? Prospects overperforming or being called up early ( think Jacoby's post-season in '07. Or what Adenhart could of done last season considering ), competition in the Division being sub-par ( like rival team's underperforming because of injuries, etc. ). I like the analysis for seeing a team's potential.

That said though. I don't agree with BP's end of the season standing's projections. Nothing would make me happier than the MFY missing the Playoffs, but they're the defending Champions for a reason.

[tin00can]

Oh no I agree with you. I just think that when it comes to player evaluation, like personal stats. MARCEL, CHONE, Bill James and Baseball Prospectus are generally spot-on.

As for Pecota/Pythag, I don't take what they're saying to a tee. Although I think their analysis is pretty good for projecting a team's potential. Like for example when a team outplay's their Pythag by a considerable margin, why?

Was it one player having a monster year? Prospects overperforming or being called up early ( think Jacoby's post-season in '07. Or what Adenhart could of done last season considering ), competition in the Division being sub-par ( like rival team's underperforming because of injuries, etc. ). I like the analysis for seeing a team's potential.

That said though. I don't agree with BP's end of the season standing's projections. Nothing would make me happier than the MFY missing the Playoffs, but they're the defending Champions for a reason.

That's just it. I hate the Yankees as much as any sane baseball fan, but to have a system that indicates they will do worse than the Rays might make you think about adjusting your system a bit. Even without Matsui and Damon that lineup is still scary. Granderson will thrive there.

And yeah, the Angels outperformed their PECOTA even with losing Adenhart and having Lackey on the DL for over a month to start the season, and half a season of both Saunders and Santana blowing goats. Of course, every year there will be teams that way outperform their expectations, even computer projected expectations.

[killeverything]

Oh no I agree with you. I just think that when it comes to player evaluation, like personal stats. MARCEL, CHONE, Bill James and Baseball Prospectus are generally spot-on.

As for Pecota/Pythag, I don't take what they're saying to a tee. Although I think their analysis is pretty good for projecting a team's potential. Like for example when a team outplay's their Pythag by a considerable margin, why?

Was it one player having a monster year? Prospects overperforming or being called up early ( think Jacoby's post-season in '07. Or what Adenhart could of done last season considering ), competition in the Division being sub-par ( like rival team's underperforming because of injuries, etc. ). I like the analysis for seeing a team's potential.

That said though. I don't agree with BP's end of the season standing's projections. Nothing would make me happier than the MFY missing the Playoffs, but they're the defending Champions for a reason.

That's just it. I hate the Yankees as much as any sane baseball fan, but to have a system that indicates they will do worse than the Rays might make you think about adjusting your system a bit. Even without Matsui and Damon that lineup is still scary. Granderson will thrive there.

And yeah, the Angels outperformed their PECOTA even with losing Adenhart and having Lackey on the DL for over a month to start the season, and half a season of both Saunders and Santana blowing goats. Of course, every year there will be teams that way outperform their expectations, even computer projected expectations.

Dude what cracks me up about all this, is about twenty minutes or so after I typed up a positve defense of such a system, they had on Hot Stove MLBN a discussion/presentation of both Pythagorean and PECOTA. I thought "man, I hope Tinn is watching this".

As for Tampa and their projections. That team is fucking scary. A lot of big ingredients underperformed last season. BJ Upton wasn't going to replicate his '08, it was a career year. If that team plays to their potential they will be either the Division winners or back like 2 games at the end of the season. The MFY are still the team to beat, but don't be surprised if it's the Rays that do it.

[TawnyVonJagger]

Alfredo Amezega signed with the Dodgers. And there's rumblings about Russell Branyan joining the Fish.

[killeverything]

Alfredo Amezega signed with the Dodgers. And there's rumblings about Russell Branyan joining the Fish.

I haven't heard anything him signing with Florida, although checking on ESPN they were talking about it. He certainly had a spike in power last season .251/.347/.520 with a sOPS+ of 129 which indicates it's highly above the career norm.

I would be weary of signing an age 33-34 player, who's only time flashing that type of power was during his "peak" years of 26-27. 2009 was also his most PA with 505. Anything more than a one year deal, possibly with incentives is nuts. I know Florida is cheap, but if there is anytime to pinch the penny with a player it's this one.

[Machado]

Damon is still available.
He is the Abreu of 2010.

[Facedown]

Dodgers and Jeff Weaver agree to a minor league deal.

[tin00can]

Dude what cracks me up about all this, is about twenty minutes or so after I typed up a positve defense of such a system, they had on Hot Stove MLBN a discussion/presentation of both Pythagorean and PECOTA. I thought "man, I hope Tinn is watching this".

As for Tampa and their projections. That team is fucking scary. A lot of big ingredients underperformed last season. BJ Upton wasn't going to replicate his '08, it was a career year. If that team plays to their potential they will be either the Division winners or back like 2 games at the end of the season. The MFY are still the team to beat, but don't be surprised if it's the Rays that do it.

Oh man, pythagorean is even better - and by better I mean worse - than PECOTA. I understand that they are just tools, but it is still funny to see the As as pythagorean champions every year.

[TawnyVonJagger]

Tinny is a VAGINA HEAD!

[Facedown]

Verlander signs 5yr/80mil deal with Tigers.
Dodgers also sign Ramon Ortiz and Alfredo Amezega to minor league deals.

[TawnyVonJagger]

When The Amazing (Amezega) gets healthy, Dodger fans will LOVE him. I'm really going to miss him, he was such a cool, funny guy. And one HELL of a utility player.

[Facedown]

Blue Jays sign P Kevin Gregg to 1yr deal with options through 2012.

[killeverything]

Reportably Orlando Hudson has agreed to a deal with the Twins.

Adam Kennedy signed with the Nationals.

Seattle is in talks to bring back Bedard on a one year deal. If that guy is healthy King Felix, Lee, and Bedard is fucking wicked.

There's rumors that Pedro will sign with Washington.

[Facedown]

Padres sign C Yorvit Torrealba to a 1yr deal.

[SkyDog112046]

Seattle is in talks to bring back Bedard on a one year deal. If that guy is healthy King Felix, Lee, and Bedard is fucking wicked.

Factored in with the Angels' off season and I think Seattle should take the AL West.

[tin00can]

Seattle is in talks to bring back Bedard on a one year deal. If that guy is healthy King Felix, Lee, and Bedard is fucking wicked.

Factored in with the Angels' off season and I think Seattle should take the AL West.

It's a cheap risk for the Ms to take. He won't be in the rotation until around June, and there is some question as to how effective he will be. If he's back in good form, the Ms have a very scary 1-3 rotation. The offense still might need a little help, though.

The AL West should be a good division this year. Texas should be better, the Ms have improved, and the Angels are down a bit.

[killeverything]

Seattle is in talks to bring back Bedard on a one year deal. If that guy is healthy King Felix, Lee, and Bedard is fucking wicked.

Factored in with the Angels' off season and I think Seattle should take the AL West.

It's a cheap risk for the Ms to take. He won't be in the rotation until around June, and there is some question as to how effective he will be. If he's back in good form, the Ms have a very scary 1-3 rotation. The offense still might need a little help, though.

The AL West should be a good division this year. Texas should be better, the Ms have improved, and the Angels are down a bit.

I'm really interested to see Texas. For once it seems like their going to be a competitive team. Aside from Nolan they've never had pitchers. Now that Nolan is in the FO.....and in the process of buying the team, they've got a farm system loaded with arms. They just keep getting better.

If Hamilton stays healthy, the West should be as tight as the East this year.

Holy fuck this is gonna be a great season.

[Facedown]

Bedard has told a newspaper that he has agreed to a deal with the Mariners.