JakeYonkel wrote:Nathan's a top 5 closer, but he wouldn't be the difference between them contending or not. What's he worth over the value of Jon Rauch or Matt Guerrier, and extra game or two across an entire season?
Of course as I'm saying this, the thought of a Mariano Rivera-less Yankee bullpen frightens the hell out of me.

What you have to pay attention to though is that only one or two wins over the course of the season, especially in such a tight Division is detrimental. Detroit and Minnesota had a one game playoff last season. That one or two wins difference could change everything.
He has a
WPA3.9 in 2009. Which fangraphs has at about a 1.9
WAR. For comparisons sake, HBT ranks most MLE #5 starters at -0.01. Basically a -1 is good enough for a starting job. Nathan had a 2.1 in 2008 and was projected to be a 2.0 in 2010.
Certainly the Twins are gonna miss Nathan's dependable production as a closer ( he only failed to convert 25 of 272 oppurtunities ). What a lot of people ( hardballtimes, rotosheet ) are saying ( and it makes sense ) is that they'll miss Raunch, Guerrier, and Neshek in set-up roles more.
On to Jon Raunch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier and their projections. I prefered to use CHONE over Marcel and Bill James for these.
Raunch: 2009
WAR0.07 2010
WAR0.09
6.41K/9 2.59BB/9 3.95ERA 1.26WHIP 3.96FIP
Neshek: 2008
WAR0.02 2010
WAR0.01
7.62K/9 3.46BB/9 4.15ERA 1.35WHIP 4.28FIP
Guerrier: 2009
WAR0.4 2010
WAR0.4
6.08K/9 2.92BB/9 4.18ERA 1.31WHIP 4.49FIP
With these we can get a slight idea of what to possibly expect. The problem is though, no roles have yet been defined. So we don't know how these cats are going to handle added pressures. Like Neshek has a high K/9 rate, but a high hit rate too. Is that because of the defense behind him? Or does he just give it up? I don't feel like going through Minnesota's 2010 UZR, DiPS projections and new park factors right now. Fuck that.
Oh and Jake, I wouldn't worry about Rivera. I thought we established he's an android. Which will be a bigger scandal to hit baseball ( much less the world ) than steroids. I think he's like the Bionic Man or some shit.
*We have the technology. We can rebuild him*