Killeverything's (New)NeverEndingBaseballThread

[bang]

It has been widely reported that the Red Sox have a tentative understanding in place with Adrian Gonzalez on a seven-year, $154 million extension. Both Theo Epstein and agent John Boggs indicated talks to keep Gonzalez in Boston were advanced. But Gonzalez told a Mexican blog that is not necessarily the case. “Nothing about that is true," Gonzalez told Fernando Ballesteros. “It's false. I haven't signed any contract. … What I can tell you is that over the course of the season we're going to negotiate to reach an agreement."

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/r ... shing.html

[killeverything]

Heh. I'll be damned.

John Dewan's Stat Of Week

How much does Adrian Gonzalez help the Red Sox?

December 9, 2010

The Boston Red Sox made the offseason’s biggest move so far, finally acquiring first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego for three top prospects. With the move, Gonzalez leaves the cavernous PETCO Park for the cozier confines of Fenway Park, while Kevin Youkilis shifts across the field to reclaim his original third base position.

First, let’s look at Gonzalez’s move. In the last four years, Gonzalez has hit 90 home runs on the road. That’s an average of 23 per year. The problem for Adrian has been that PETCO Park is such a difficult home run park. At home he has averaged only 12 home runs per year. It is not unreasonable to suggest that, had Gonzalez played in a more normal park for home runs, he would have averaged closer to 45 or 46 home runs per year in those four years, rather than his actual figure of 34 long ones per season.

In the Bill James Handbook 2011, the home run park factor for all left-handed hitters playing in San Diego over the last three years is 59. That means that, overall, lefty swingers have hit 41 percent fewer home runs there than elsewhere. Gonzalez’s performance is consistent with that, though a little worse.

Also in the Handbook, we projected the lefty slugger for 33 home runs and a .890 On-base Plus Slugging mark. This is based on playing half of his games in PETCO Park. Moving him to Fenway Park, his projected batting line improves tremendously. Not only do his expected home run totals improve, but his batting average should improve dramatically as well. His home batting average over the last four years was .260 while he hit .306 on the road. In the new park, we project him to hit seven more home runs, raise his batting average by 27 points, and create about 30 more runs in the same number of at-bats in Fenway compared to PETCO.

Adrian Gonzalez's 2011 Projection

Team AB H 2B HR RBI Runs Created AVG OBP SLG On-base Plus Slugging
Padres 600 171 35 33 102 115 .285 .378 .512 .890
Red Sox 600 187 51 40 125 143 .312 .399 .600 .999

To accommodate Gonzalez, Youkilis (an above-average first baseman) moves back to third base, replacing former Fielding Bible Award winner Adrian Beltre. While Beltre had a tremendous 2010 season at the plate and in the field, he is unlikely to reproduce the same offensive performance in 2011.

We projected Youkilis to save seven runs at first base defensively next year, compared to Gonzalez’s three. That’s pretty much a wash. At third base, Youkilis has done fine in limited playing time. There’s no reason we can’t assume he’ll continue to be at least competent at third base. But as an average third baseman, he’s a tremendous drop off from one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, Adrian Beltre, for whom we project 17 Runs Saved for 2011. All in all, that’s about 20 runs lost defensively in the Gonzalez deal for the Red Sox comparing Youkilis at first base and Beltre at third to Gonzalez at first and Youkilis at third.

However, we project Gonzalez to create 143 runs with the Red Sox next year, a full 52-run improvement over Beltre’s projected 91 Runs Created if he’d stayed with Boston.

Even if the Red Sox can’t work out a long-term extension with Gonzalez, the trade improves their 2011 squad by about 32 runs (more than three wins)! Not a bad day at the office for General Manager Theo Epstein and his crew.

[Facedown]

A mystery team has offered Cliff Lee a 7 year deal.

and apparently it wasn't the Yankees.

Reports are it was the Red Sox. No intent of signing him, just sticking it to the Yankees.

[bang]

A mystery team has offered Cliff Lee a 7 year deal.

and apparently it wasn't the Yankees.

Reports are it was the Red Sox. No intent of signing him, just sticking it to the Yankees.

Good Job,
not only do the Sox not need Cliff Lee,
he is just not that good.

His brilliance is spotty at best.
He has only topped 15 wins 2 times in 9 seasons.

[MurrayFiend]

Good Job,
not only do the Sox not need Cliff Lee,
he is just not that good.

His brilliance is spotty at best.
He has only topped 15 wins 2 times in 9 seasons.

I imagine the Cleveland teams he was playing with for most of those seasons weren't exactly high scorers.

[bang]

Good Job,
not only do the Sox not need Cliff Lee,
he is just not that good.

His brilliance is spotty at best.
He has only topped 15 wins 2 times in 9 seasons.

I imagine the Cleveland teams he was playing with for most of those seasons weren't exactly high scorers.

His two 15+ win seasons were with Cleveland.

How about last years Texas Rangers, were they good enough?
In 15 starts Cliff Lee went 4-6 w/ a 3.98 ERA.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/s ... yerId=5353

[MurrayFiend]

Damn you! I hate when I talk out of my ass and get busted.

[Facedown]

Scott Downs signs with Angels 3yrs/15mil.

[tin00can]

Scott Downs signs with Angels 3yrs/15mil.

That means they probably won't sign Soriano, which I like. I think with Downs and (that Japanese guy whose name I don't have memorized yet) and the young guys the Angels have a solid pen; Sosh has already hinted that the closer position is up for grabs so Rodney (thankfully) won't just be handed closer.

Now for some offense. It's looking like Beltre will be the obvious fit, unless they trade for a 3B.

[SkyDog112046]

Scott Downs signs with Angels 3yrs/15mil.

That means they probably won't sign Soriano, which I like. I think with Downs and (that Japanese guy whose name I don't have memorized yet) and the young guys the Angels have a solid pen; Sosh has already hinted that the closer position is up for grabs so Rodney (thankfully) won't just be handed closer.

Now for some offense. It's looking like Beltre will be the obvious fit, unless they trade for a 3B.

I think the Angels can get Beltre for a relatively good bargain right now. Boston no longer needs him, the A's won't negotiate with him because he jerked them around twice, and NY has no use for him so there won't be a lot of teams bidding for his services. It looks like Boras' strategy of trying to create a bidding war might backfire this time. If I was the Angels I would make him a take-it-or-leave it offer and hope he realizes his market is drying up and just takes it.

[tin00can]

Well, both sides are a little desperate. The Angels need to do something to improve their offense, and Beltre is the obvious choice. I just hope it doesn't end up as a five-year contract.

[killeverything]

Baltimore re-signed RHP Koji Uehara to a 1-year, $3 million deal, plus a vesting option for 2012.

523-year-old infielder Miguel Cairo signed a 2-year, $2 million deal ($1M per year) with Cincinnati.

LHP Dennys Reyes signed a 1-year deal with the Phillies. He'll make $1.1 million, plus a $1.35 million 2012 option.

Vincente Padilla re-signed with the Dodgers on a 1-year, $2 million deal.

RHP Cesar Valdez was traded from Arizona to Pittsburgh to complete the Zach Duke trade.

George Sherrill is headed to Atlanta for 1 year at $1.2 million.

C Wil Nieves signed a 1-year, $775K contract with the Brewers.

OF Carl Crawford officially signed a 7-year, $142 million deal with the Red Sox.

LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith signed a 1-year, $725K contract to pitch for the Astros.

The Pirates signed LHP Scott Olsen to a 1-year deal worth $500K (plus $3M in incentives). The deal also includes a $4 million option for 2012.

minor league deals:
Astros: RHP Jailen Peguero
Dodgers: SS Juan Castro
Giants: RHP Waldis Joaquin
Rockies: LHP Geno Espineli

[Facedown]

News also out today is that Rivera is the one that contacted the Red Sox about a contract.

[Machado]

News also out today is that Rivera is the one that contacted the Red Sox about a contract.

can i have proof please????

[Facedown]

News also out today is that Rivera is the one that contacted the Red Sox about a contract.

can i have proof please????

My bad, I guess it was his reps. Heard it on the radio today but wasn't really paying full attention.
In an attempt to find proof, I found this:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/ ... e-red-sox/

[Facedown]

Seems the Phillies are in on the Cliff Lee bidding.

[WhiteHouseSubsAC]

Seems the Phillies are in on the Cliff Lee bidding.

There is a report that the Phils may have snagged him. I hope it's true but I'm not holding my breath.

Halladay
Lee
Oswalt
Hamels
Kendrick

SICK Rotation.

EDIT: Holy shit.

http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-ranger ... iladelphia

[tin00can]

Seems the Phillies are in on the Cliff Lee bidding.

There is a report that the Phils may have snagged him. I hope it's true but I'm not holding my breath.

Halladay
Lee
Oswalt
Hamels
Kendrick

SICK Rotation.

EDIT: Holy shit.

http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-ranger ... iladelphia

God damn, that rotation is insane.

Of course, this means that Texas will now focus on getting Beltre just to fuck with the Angels. Fuck.

[MurrayFiend]

Seems the Phillies are in on the Cliff Lee bidding.

There is a report that the Phils may have snagged him. I hope it's true but I'm not holding my breath.

Halladay
Lee
Oswalt
Hamels
Kendrick

SICK Rotation.

EDIT: Holy shit.

http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-ranger ... iladelphia

Damn at the edit. That rotation almost makes the NL East race not worth playing. Just give 'em the damn playoff spot.

[WhiteHouseSubsAC]

A writer for the NY Post just reported that Lee is going back to Philly.

[MurrayFiend]

LOL. Yankees got owned like a motherfucker. At least they've still got the best shortstop evar!

[WhiteHouseSubsAC]

Official: Cliff Lee tells Rangers he's taking a 5 Year 100 million dollar deal to go back to the Phillies.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent ... 8e092.html

[dtmfs]

R2C2 says, "You mother fuckers are in trouble next year!!!

And please don't blame me I didn't cpome up with the nickname it's been floating around since it was announced.

[TawnyVonJagger]

MotherFUCK.

Why did they trade him away in the first place? Phuckheads.

[dtmfs]

MotherFUCK.

Why did they trade him away in the first place? Phuckheads.

Dunno and right now I don't care, their 1-4 is fucking Godlike, and no offense to yankee fans but I'm just glad to see a guy basically say fuck that place and fuck their money, glad to see him back.

[TawnyVonJagger]

I'm glad he's not with the Yanks either, but this is my worst fucking nightmare! Judas fucking priest!

[dtmfs]

I'm glad he's not with the Yanks either, but this is my worst fucking nightmare! Judas fucking priest!

the braves getting uggla was mine for awhile but this takes the sting away. I feel for the marlins fans always trading away their best players. I thought they'd keep uggla, dude will end up being the greatest power hitting 2b ever and I loathe the braves more or just as much as the mets, i had enough of that tomahawk chop shit in the 90's and now they're good again. you should check the espn boards Atl, mets, yankee fans are crying like mother fuckers, who knows the phils could suck ass, stranger things have happened.

[tin00can]

MotherFUCK.

Why did they trade him away in the first place? Phuckheads.

Smart move, in retrospect. They got the trade pieces plus draft pick, and then they got Lee back.

[SkyDog112046]

Cool, anywhere but NY. I would have liked to see him stay in Texas, but at least he isn't headed for the Bronx.

So NY lost out on both Lee and Crawford this year. 0 for 2. I guess that means they'll try to do something to save face this off season. Greinke?

[Hootchietoad]

Cool, anywhere but NY. I would have liked to see him stay in Texas, but at least he isn't headed for the Bronx.

Yep.