Hall of Fame probability of active players
Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 12:42 pm
Hall of Fame probability of active players: Peyton Manning for sure; Tony Romo in air
By Mike Beacom, ProFootballWeekly.comFeb 10, 3:17 pm EST
The Pro Football Hall of Fame is for winners and the elite, and even those players sometimes have to wait. Cris Carter has 1,101 receptions and 130 touchdown catches; Charles Haley has more Super Bowl rings than anyone(five) — both are still waiting for the call.
What does it take to make the Hall? Only voters can answer that question, but what we do know is that the 44-person Selection Committee inducts no more than five each year (not counting the two Senior Committee candidates) and rarely more than one at each position.
Who is on the right track among today's active players? It changes year to year, with all of them able to be grouped into varying levels of probability. The 100 players considered below entered the league in 2007 or before, giving them at least five years of work to showcase. Players are listed with their position, 2011 team and draft year.
LOCKS — Legends that might as well start getting measured for their suit coat.
Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts (1998) — With him, the Colts were consistent 10-game winners; without him, they were awful.
Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens (1996) — Probably the best defensive player of the past two decades.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons (1997) — Changed the position (and at age 35 still caught 80 balls).
Champ Bailey, DB, Denver Broncos (1999) — Another year, another Pro Bowl — that makes 11 in 13 seasons.
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, New York Jets (2001) — His late-career decline could keep him out on his first try, but L.T. won't wait long.
Ed Reed, DB, Baltimore Ravens (2002) — His 57 interceptions are not as important as his eight career interception or fumble returns for scores.
Charles Woodson, DB, Green Bay Packers (1998) — Imagine if he had played in Dom Capers' system his entire career.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (2000) — Five Super Bowls, four seasons with 4,000-plus yards, three rings, two MVPs 0-2 since Spygate scandal…
Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers (2003) — Eight consecutive Pro Bowl invites and no signs of slowing down (well, when healthy).
ON THEIR WAY — Elite players on pace to finish up in Canton, each with a 75 percent chance or better.
Troy Polamalu, DB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2003) — Voters will want to reward the great Steelers defenses of this era. Polamalu gives them a face.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (2001) — Has passed for 4,300 or more yards in six consecutive seasons (including two years with more than 5,000). His strong character will help his candidacy just as much.
Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears (2000) — His performance the past two seasons has solidified his campaign. Plus, it helps that he follows Butkus and Singletary in the line of outstanding Chicago middle linebackers.
Adam Vinatieri, PK, Indianapolis Colts (1996) — The Hall of Fame doesn't care for kickers, but it will make an exception for the most celebrated big-game kicker of them all.
Brian Dawkins, DB, Denver Broncos (1996) — A locker-room leader who has played well into his late 30s. That packaged with eight Pro Bowls (four All-Pro selections) should be enough.
DeMarcus Ware, LB, Dallas Cowboys (2005) — Outside of Reggie White, no sack artist has had a run to match what Ware has accomplished these past five seasons.
Richard Seymour, DL, Oakland Raiders (2001) — Has rings from his time in New England, and has a pair of Pro Bowls from his last two seasons in Oakland. Underappreciated but he won't go unnoticed by voters.
Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys (2003) — Of the tight ends currently in the Hall of Fame, only one (Shannon Sharpe) has been invited to more Pro Bowls than Witten.
Dwight Freeney, DL, Indianapolis Colts (2002) — Partially responsible for teams shifting to small, quick edge rushers. Has a better sack-per-game average than 2012 HOF inductee Chris Doleman.
Steve Hutchinson, OL, Minnesota Vikings (2001) — Even though he is one of the most celebrated guards of his era (five All-Pro selections) his body of work places him on the low end of the guards already in Canton.
Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1998) — The numbers (1,000 catches, 12,083 yards) won't mean as much to voters as his role in Pittsburgh's last three Super Bowl appearances, including two wins.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (2004) — The youngest player not in the "On their way" category. His 2011 numbers (notably his 17.6-yard average) showed he can produce in bad times as well as good.
Julius Peppers, DL, Chicago Bears (2002) — Has seven seasons with 10-plus sacks to his credit and six Pro Bowls. Probably more disruptive than his numbers indicate, but he also has been inconsistent at times throughout his career.
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (2004) — Jim Plunkett and Ben Roethlisberger (see below) are the only other quarterbacks to have won two Super Bowls who are not in Canton — and Eli's numbers rate him well above Plunkett and Big Ben.
Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans (2003) — Will reach 10,000 yards in 2012 (in only his 10th NFL season). Has made nearly six catches per game over his career.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2004) — Like Eli, has two rings (and played in a third Super Bowl). Roethlisberger has been a consistent winner, but his passing numbers (specifically touchdowns) are lacking.
London Fletcher, LB, Washington Redskins (1998) — Years from now, well into Fletcher's candidacy, someone will remind voters just how consistently good he was. After years of being overlooked, Canton could be his reward.
MAYBE, MAYBE NOT — Stars that have had a splendid career, just maybe not Hall of Fame caliber. Each has a 50-50 shot at best.
Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (2001) — Will voters see hiim as the most exceptional athlete ever to suit up, or as a quarterback who was merely good on as many Sundays as he was elite?
Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts (2001) — Without Peyton Manning in the pocket, Wayne's 2011 catch and yardage numbers dropped approximately 30 percent from the previous season — calculations voters will make note of.
Jared Allen, DL, Minnesota Vikings (2004) — This season's 22 sacks give Allen's candidacy a major boost.
Matt Light, OL, New England Patriots (2001) — Voters like to reward great teams. Light has been with Tom Brady for all five Super Bowl runs, and has enough name recognition and Pro Bowls (three) to stay in the conversation.
Kevin Williams, DL, Minnesota Vikings (2003) — Plays the run and pass well, arguably one of the best interior defensive linemen of his era. Will need a few more Pro Bowls (or a ring) to jump up a category on this list.
John Abraham, DL, Atlanta Falcons (2000) — Would you believe Abraham's sack-per-game numbers are better than Dwight Freeney's? Neither will voters, but it's true.
Adrian Wilson, DB, Arizona Cardinals (2001) — Not a big turnover producer, just a very smart and solid safety.
James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2002) — Has helped Pittsburgh remain a force in the AFC. A late bloomer (probably a little too late).
Terrell Suggs, LB, Baltimore Ravens (2003) — Reached new ground in 2011. Can he hold that level for two or three more years? He'll need to for Canton to come calling.
Lance Briggs, LB, Chicago Bears (2003) — Seven consecutive Pro Bowl invites helps; Brian Urlacher's shadow hurts.
Chad Ochocinco, WR, New England Patriots (2001) — A rare case where panache might appeal to voters more than substance.
Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers (2001) — The real question is how many yards will a receiver need to gain entrance 10 years from now? Smith won't have enough touchdowns or receptions, that's for certain.
Ronde Barber, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1997) — Right now, there does not appear to be enough on Barber's résumé. He has contributed in many ways, but probably has not stood out enough in any one area (turnovers, tackles, defensive scores, sacks) to earn strong consideration.
Matt Birk, OL, Baltimore Ravens (1998) — Six Pro Bowls and the 2011 Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award will highlight a splendid career for a center who doesn't quite meet the mark.
Donovan McNabb, QB (1999) — There was a time when McNabb appeared destined for Canton. Now he appears destined for Canada.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=p ... ve_players
By Mike Beacom, ProFootballWeekly.comFeb 10, 3:17 pm EST
The Pro Football Hall of Fame is for winners and the elite, and even those players sometimes have to wait. Cris Carter has 1,101 receptions and 130 touchdown catches; Charles Haley has more Super Bowl rings than anyone(five) — both are still waiting for the call.
What does it take to make the Hall? Only voters can answer that question, but what we do know is that the 44-person Selection Committee inducts no more than five each year (not counting the two Senior Committee candidates) and rarely more than one at each position.
Who is on the right track among today's active players? It changes year to year, with all of them able to be grouped into varying levels of probability. The 100 players considered below entered the league in 2007 or before, giving them at least five years of work to showcase. Players are listed with their position, 2011 team and draft year.
LOCKS — Legends that might as well start getting measured for their suit coat.
Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts (1998) — With him, the Colts were consistent 10-game winners; without him, they were awful.
Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens (1996) — Probably the best defensive player of the past two decades.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons (1997) — Changed the position (and at age 35 still caught 80 balls).
Champ Bailey, DB, Denver Broncos (1999) — Another year, another Pro Bowl — that makes 11 in 13 seasons.
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, New York Jets (2001) — His late-career decline could keep him out on his first try, but L.T. won't wait long.
Ed Reed, DB, Baltimore Ravens (2002) — His 57 interceptions are not as important as his eight career interception or fumble returns for scores.
Charles Woodson, DB, Green Bay Packers (1998) — Imagine if he had played in Dom Capers' system his entire career.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (2000) — Five Super Bowls, four seasons with 4,000-plus yards, three rings, two MVPs 0-2 since Spygate scandal…
Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers (2003) — Eight consecutive Pro Bowl invites and no signs of slowing down (well, when healthy).
ON THEIR WAY — Elite players on pace to finish up in Canton, each with a 75 percent chance or better.
Troy Polamalu, DB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2003) — Voters will want to reward the great Steelers defenses of this era. Polamalu gives them a face.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (2001) — Has passed for 4,300 or more yards in six consecutive seasons (including two years with more than 5,000). His strong character will help his candidacy just as much.
Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears (2000) — His performance the past two seasons has solidified his campaign. Plus, it helps that he follows Butkus and Singletary in the line of outstanding Chicago middle linebackers.
Adam Vinatieri, PK, Indianapolis Colts (1996) — The Hall of Fame doesn't care for kickers, but it will make an exception for the most celebrated big-game kicker of them all.
Brian Dawkins, DB, Denver Broncos (1996) — A locker-room leader who has played well into his late 30s. That packaged with eight Pro Bowls (four All-Pro selections) should be enough.
DeMarcus Ware, LB, Dallas Cowboys (2005) — Outside of Reggie White, no sack artist has had a run to match what Ware has accomplished these past five seasons.
Richard Seymour, DL, Oakland Raiders (2001) — Has rings from his time in New England, and has a pair of Pro Bowls from his last two seasons in Oakland. Underappreciated but he won't go unnoticed by voters.
Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys (2003) — Of the tight ends currently in the Hall of Fame, only one (Shannon Sharpe) has been invited to more Pro Bowls than Witten.
Dwight Freeney, DL, Indianapolis Colts (2002) — Partially responsible for teams shifting to small, quick edge rushers. Has a better sack-per-game average than 2012 HOF inductee Chris Doleman.
Steve Hutchinson, OL, Minnesota Vikings (2001) — Even though he is one of the most celebrated guards of his era (five All-Pro selections) his body of work places him on the low end of the guards already in Canton.
Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1998) — The numbers (1,000 catches, 12,083 yards) won't mean as much to voters as his role in Pittsburgh's last three Super Bowl appearances, including two wins.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (2004) — The youngest player not in the "On their way" category. His 2011 numbers (notably his 17.6-yard average) showed he can produce in bad times as well as good.
Julius Peppers, DL, Chicago Bears (2002) — Has seven seasons with 10-plus sacks to his credit and six Pro Bowls. Probably more disruptive than his numbers indicate, but he also has been inconsistent at times throughout his career.
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (2004) — Jim Plunkett and Ben Roethlisberger (see below) are the only other quarterbacks to have won two Super Bowls who are not in Canton — and Eli's numbers rate him well above Plunkett and Big Ben.
Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans (2003) — Will reach 10,000 yards in 2012 (in only his 10th NFL season). Has made nearly six catches per game over his career.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2004) — Like Eli, has two rings (and played in a third Super Bowl). Roethlisberger has been a consistent winner, but his passing numbers (specifically touchdowns) are lacking.
London Fletcher, LB, Washington Redskins (1998) — Years from now, well into Fletcher's candidacy, someone will remind voters just how consistently good he was. After years of being overlooked, Canton could be his reward.
MAYBE, MAYBE NOT — Stars that have had a splendid career, just maybe not Hall of Fame caliber. Each has a 50-50 shot at best.
Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (2001) — Will voters see hiim as the most exceptional athlete ever to suit up, or as a quarterback who was merely good on as many Sundays as he was elite?
Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts (2001) — Without Peyton Manning in the pocket, Wayne's 2011 catch and yardage numbers dropped approximately 30 percent from the previous season — calculations voters will make note of.
Jared Allen, DL, Minnesota Vikings (2004) — This season's 22 sacks give Allen's candidacy a major boost.
Matt Light, OL, New England Patriots (2001) — Voters like to reward great teams. Light has been with Tom Brady for all five Super Bowl runs, and has enough name recognition and Pro Bowls (three) to stay in the conversation.
Kevin Williams, DL, Minnesota Vikings (2003) — Plays the run and pass well, arguably one of the best interior defensive linemen of his era. Will need a few more Pro Bowls (or a ring) to jump up a category on this list.
John Abraham, DL, Atlanta Falcons (2000) — Would you believe Abraham's sack-per-game numbers are better than Dwight Freeney's? Neither will voters, but it's true.
Adrian Wilson, DB, Arizona Cardinals (2001) — Not a big turnover producer, just a very smart and solid safety.
James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2002) — Has helped Pittsburgh remain a force in the AFC. A late bloomer (probably a little too late).
Terrell Suggs, LB, Baltimore Ravens (2003) — Reached new ground in 2011. Can he hold that level for two or three more years? He'll need to for Canton to come calling.
Lance Briggs, LB, Chicago Bears (2003) — Seven consecutive Pro Bowl invites helps; Brian Urlacher's shadow hurts.
Chad Ochocinco, WR, New England Patriots (2001) — A rare case where panache might appeal to voters more than substance.
Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers (2001) — The real question is how many yards will a receiver need to gain entrance 10 years from now? Smith won't have enough touchdowns or receptions, that's for certain.
Ronde Barber, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1997) — Right now, there does not appear to be enough on Barber's résumé. He has contributed in many ways, but probably has not stood out enough in any one area (turnovers, tackles, defensive scores, sacks) to earn strong consideration.
Matt Birk, OL, Baltimore Ravens (1998) — Six Pro Bowls and the 2011 Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award will highlight a splendid career for a center who doesn't quite meet the mark.
Donovan McNabb, QB (1999) — There was a time when McNabb appeared destined for Canton. Now he appears destined for Canada.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=p ... ve_players
