Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

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MasterOfMeatPuppets
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Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by MasterOfMeatPuppets »

This is like a cross between Wall Street and Terminator. NASDAQ just said "it never happened" and the NYSE decided all's well that doesn't end in disaster. I guess this is what happens when you literally leave the market to it's own devices.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/05/07/wa ... used-typo/

NEW YORK -- A computerized selloff possibly caused by a simple typographical error triggered one of the most turbulent days in Wall Street history Thursday and sent the Dow Jones industrials to a loss of almost 1,000 points, nearly a tenth of their value, in less than half an hour. It was the biggest drop ever during a trading day.

The Dow recovered two-thirds of the loss before the closing bell, but that was still the biggest point loss since February of last year. The lightning-fast plummet temporarily knocked normally stable stocks such as Procter & Gamble to a tiny fraction of their former value and sent chills down investors' spines.

"Today ... caused me to fall out of my chair at one point. It felt like we lost control," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

No one was sure what happened, other than automated orders were activated by erroneous trades. One possibility being investigated was that a trader accidentally placed an order to sell $16 billion, instead of $16 million, worth of futures, and that was enough to trigger sell orders across the market.

No one was taking blame, either. The New York Stock Exchange said there was no problem with the Big Board's systems, and all the markets were on a conference call with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Nasdaq issued a statement two hours after the market closed saying it was canceling trades that were executed between 2:40 p.m. and 3 p.m. that it called clearly erroneous. It did not, however, mention a cause of the plunge.

The NYSE said it doesn't expect to cancel any trades.

There were reports that the sudden drop was caused by a trader who mistyped an order to sell a large block of stock. The drop in that stock's price was enough to trigger "sell" orders across the market.

The SEC issued a statement saying regulators are reviewing what happened and "working with the exchanges to take appropriate steps to protect investors."

Whatever started the selloff, automated computer trading intensified the losses. The selling only led to more selling as prices plummeted and traders tried to limit their losses.

"I think the machines just took over. There's not a lot of human interaction," said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "We've known that automated trading can run away from you, and I think that's what we saw happen today."

The market was already wobbly because of fears that Greece's debt crisis will undermine the economic recovery. Traders watched television coverage of protests in the streets of Athens, and the Dow was down 200 when the selloff began less than two hours before the closing bell.

At 2:20 p.m. EDT, the Dow was at 10,460, a loss of 400 points.

It then tumbled 600 points in seven minutes to its low of the day of 9,869, a drop of 9.2 percent.

On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, stone-faced traders huddled around electronic boards and televisions, silently watching and waiting. Traders' screens were flashing numbers non-stop, with losses shown in solid blocks of red numbers.

Then the market bounced back, about as quickly as it fell. By 3:09 p.m., the Dow had regained 700 points. It then fluctuated sharply until the close. The trading day ended with the Dow down 347.80, or 3.2 percent, at 10,520.

The Dow has lost 631 points, or 5.7 percent, since Tuesday amid worries about Greece. That is the largest three-day percentage drop since March 2009, when the stock market was nearing its bottom following the financial meltdown.

At its lowest Thursday, the Dow was down 998.50 points in its largest point drop ever, eclipsing the 780.87 lost during the course of trading on Oct. 15, 2008, during the height of the financial crisis. The Dow closed that day down 733.08, the biggest closing loss it has ever suffered.

The impact of Thursday's gyrations on some stocks was breathtaking, if brief. Stock in the consulting firm Accenture fell to 4 cents after closing at $42.17 on Wednesday. It recovered to close at $41.09, down just over $1.

Procter & Gamble, generally a stable stock, dropped as much as $23, almost 37 percent, and rallied to close down only $1.41.

Many professional investors and traders use computer program trading to buy and sell orders for large blocks of stocks. The programs use mathematical models that are designed to give a trader the best possible price on shares.

The programs are often set up in advance and allow computers to react instantly to moves in the market. When a stock index drops by a big amount, for example, computers can unleash a torrent of sell orders across the market. They move so fast that prices, and in turn indexes, can plunge at the fast pace seen Thursday.

Even if there were technical issues, concerns about the world economy are running high.

The stock market has had periodic bouts of anxiety about the European economies during the past few months. They have intensified over the past week even as Greece appeared to be moving closer to getting a bailout package from some of its neighbors.

"The market is now realizing that Greece is going to go through a depression over the next couple of years," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "Europe is a major trading partner of ours, and this threatens the entire global growth story."

The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the index most closely watched by market pros, fell 37.75, or 3.2 percent, to 1,128.15. The Nasdaq composite index lost 82.65, or 3.4 percent, and closed at 2,319.64.

At the market's lows, all three indexes were showing losses for the year. The Dow now shows a gain of 0.9 percent for 2010, while the S&P is up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.2 percent.

At the close, losses were so widespread that just 173 stocks rose on the NYSE, compared to 3,008 that fell. The major indexes were all down more than 3 percent.

Meanwhile, interest rates on Treasurys soared as traders sought the safety of U.S. government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.4 percent from late Wednesday's 3.54 percent.
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SmokingGun
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by SmokingGun »

I call B.S.

There are so many safeguards built into the system that a 'fat finger' could not cause the dow to drop 1000 without raising a lot of red flags first.

The whole foundation of stock markets around the world are about as stable as a drunk on shaky ground.
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by MasterOfMeatPuppets »

SmokingGun wrote:I call B.S.

There are so many safeguards built into the system that a 'fat finger' could not cause the dow to drop 1000 without raising a lot of red flags first.
What safeguards?
SmokingGun wrote:The whole foundation of stock markets around the world are about as stable as a drunk on shaky ground.
That's for sure.
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by Dark80sChris »

The stock market is being manipulated by the president's Working Group on Financial Markets. The working group is also known as the "Plunge Protection Team." They're keeping the markets propped up. It'll all come crashing down sooner or later.

Do yourselves a favor: buy gold and silver.
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by KneelandBobDylan »

Dark80sChris wrote:The stock market is being manipulated by the president's Working Group on Financial Markets. The working group is also known as the "Plunge Protection Team." They're keeping the markets propped up. It'll all come crashing down sooner or later.

Do yourselves a favor: buy gold and silver.

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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by WhiteHouseSubsAC »

Dark80sChris wrote:The stock market is being manipulated by the president's Working Group on Financial Markets. The working group is also known as the "Plunge Protection Team." They're keeping the markets propped up. It'll all come crashing down sooner or later.

Do yourselves a favor: buy gold and silver.
How's life in the bunker these days?
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by SmokingGun »

MasterOfMeatPuppets wrote:
SmokingGun wrote:I call B.S.

There are so many safeguards built into the system that a 'fat finger' could not cause the dow to drop 1000 without raising a lot of red flags first.
What safeguards?
ie
if the amount is over a certain limit, it has to be approved by a superior.
if the amount is a trillion instead of a billion, it would not be a usual transaction and would be flagged as such and confirmation would be demanded before it could go through

etc. just common sense safeguards.

put it this way, would the system be so devoid of safeguards that a lone suicidal broker could literally bring the world to it's knees?
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

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Dark80sChris wrote:The stock market is being manipulated by the president's Working Group on Financial Markets. The working group is also known as the "Plunge Protection Team." They're keeping the markets propped up. It'll all come crashing down sooner or later.

Do yourselves a favor: buy gold and silver.
I would actually say sheer unbridled greed is propping up the market. People are always after a bargain, whether it be shoes on sale or stocks well below their perceived value.

Gold and silver is no guarantee. If you'd bought gold in the 70's and kept it till now, you'd have lost a lot of money.

Just stay out of the markets, because reality no longer plays a role, it's all (largely uninformed) speculation, hype, astroturfing and a large dose of the aforementioned greed. Which in the past all played a role, but now almost solely dictate the price of stocks.
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by MasterOfMeatPuppets »

SmokingGun wrote:
MasterOfMeatPuppets wrote:
SmokingGun wrote:I call B.S.

There are so many safeguards built into the system that a 'fat finger' could not cause the dow to drop 1000 without raising a lot of red flags first.
What safeguards?
ie
if the amount is over a certain limit, it has to be approved by a superior.
if the amount is a trillion instead of a billion, it would not be a usual transaction and would be flagged as such and confirmation would be demanded before it could go through

etc. just common sense safeguards.
Any specifics like like laws, regulations or official company policies?
SmokingGun wrote:put it this way, would the system be so devoid of safeguards that a lone suicidal broker could literally bring the world to it's knees?
Yes, because it happened. The original 'fat finger' error was just the trigger. They've got goddamn computers running automated trading programs. There was no human involvement in the majority of those transactions. That's what made this mess. I would like to think after this there will be some safeguards, though.
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by Supersonic »

There are safeguards and one major feature is regarding the decimal point because that is such an easy thing to screw up. I've not physically seen the system working as visitors were never allowed on the corp finance trading floor. Those I know in that business tell me traders do screw up a lot but the safety checks usually stop the error or can kill the trade.

I've no idea what the hell went on in this case though. The truth will come out.
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by MasterOfMeatPuppets »

Supersonic wrote:There are safeguards and one major feature is regarding the decimal point because that is such an easy thing to screw up. I've not physically seen the system working as visitors were never allowed on the corp finance trading floor. Those I know in that business tell me traders do screw up a lot but the safety checks usually stop the error or can kill the trade.

I've no idea what the hell went on in this case though. The truth will come out.
Many professional investors and traders use computer program trading to buy and sell orders for large blocks of stocks. The programs use mathematical models that are designed to give a trader the best possible price on shares.

The programs are often set up in advance and allow computers to react instantly to moves in the market. When a stock index drops by a big amount, for example, computers can unleash a torrent of sell orders across the market. They move so fast that prices, and in turn indexes, can plunge at the fast pace seen Thursday.
Whatever started the selloff, automated computer trading intensified the losses. The selling only led to more selling as prices plummeted and traders tried to limit their losses.

"I think the machines just took over. There's not a lot of human interaction," said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "We've known that automated trading can run away from you, and I think that's what we saw happen today."
They trusted machines to do their job.
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Re: Stock market on autopanic?... I mean autopilot

Post by EvilMadman »

Dark80sChris wrote:The stock market is being manipulated by the president's Working Group on Financial Markets. The working group is also known as the "Plunge Protection Team." They're keeping the markets propped up. It'll all come crashing down sooner or later.

Do yourselves a favor: buy gold and silver.
It's happened a few times before.
CNBC -- which loves bubbles more than Lawrence Welk ever did -- invited a Chicago trader named Scott Nations to the show.

Nations then shook things up by saying, straight out, that the US government, through the Plunge Protection Team, manipulated the Standard & Poor's 500 index on Oct. 10 and Oct. 28.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=931599105&play=1

That was right before the election, in case you've forgotten, which brings into question whether there was something undemocratic going on.

The hosts of the show went apoplectic with one -- sadly, one who should know better -- calling the accusations "Internet rumors."

One viewer even noticed that his screen went blank for five seconds in the middle of the exchange, although CNBC said -- if in fact it happened -- that the dead air was due to technical difficulties and not censoring.

It's surprising that CNBC is so clueless, especially now when Washington is openly considering government rescues of auto, insurance, financial companies, and anyone else that tells a convincing enough sob story.

You know where I stand on this. Once someone takes a really close look at what's been going on this'll be the biggest financial story ever.

Here are the facts: Ronald Reagan signed an executive order during his last year in office that created the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which the Washington Post later nicknamed the "Plunge Protection Team."

In 1989, Robert Heller, who had just left the Federal Reserve Board, proposed that the government should rig the stock market in times of imminent disaster.

George Stephanopoulos, a top aide to former President Bill Clinton, said the government used this power in 1998 during the meltdown caused by the failure of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. And I spoke with a high-ranking official at the Fed about intervention when the markets cratered right after 9/11.

As soon as CNBC gets a clue, I'll let you know.

By John Crudele
Thursday, November 18, 2008
So it wouldn't surprise me now if they were still "working".
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