Illegal invaders are fleeing Arizona.

[Nevermind]

A lot of the undocumented democrats are fleeing Arizona, which means the new law (aka the federal law) is working, and it hasn't even taken effect yet.
Great news! Of course the bad news is that the invaders will probably be coming to your state.
http://articles.latimes.com/print/2010/ ... x-20100723

[vlad]

Oh dear, who is going to so their scut work now?

[bane]

It'll be interesting watching Arizona's economy. I have a feeling it's gonna tank or at the very least, suffer greatly.

[SeminiferousButtNoid]

You mean tank more so than it already has in the last 3 years? A dearth of undocumented service and day laborer jobs isn't going to affect jack squat.

With that being said, I don't think they really are "fleeing". All the reports have been anecdotal.

[bane]

You mean tank more so than it already has in the last 3 years? A dearth of undocumented service and day laborer jobs isn't going to affect jack squat.

The loss of apartment rental income, grocer sales, restaurant sales, tote the note car lot sales etc sure will. Not to mention the increase in housing and manufacturing costs. Businesses will close as a result of this and I think the overall cost of living will escalate. There is something to be said for the lowering of social program costs, but I don't think it'll come close to offsetting the losses. As a social experiment it'll be interesting to watch. I think it's a mistake on Arizona's part, but I guess we'll find out.

[tylamonroe]

You mean tank more so than it already has in the last 3 years? A dearth of undocumented service and day laborer jobs isn't going to affect jack squat.

The loss of apartment rental income, grocer sales, restaurant sales, tote the note car lot sales etc sure will. Not to mention the increase in housing and manufacturing costs. Businesses will close as a result of this and I think the overall cost of living will escalate. There is something to be said for the lowering of social program costs, but I don't think it'll come close to offsetting the losses. As a social experiment it'll be interesting to watch. I think it's a mistake on Arizona's part, but I guess we'll find out.

I think you are dead wrong on this. So much of the illegal economy is underground. They are shoping at Lupe's corner market more often the safeway and from the way they stack up in houses and apartments half a million could leave and you would only lose about 100 rental units.

Check cashing places and third rate auto dealers might close up but I think that is a great thing for the big picture.

[Calexxia]

While I've repeatedly stated my objections to SB 1070, I DO need to point out something that keeps is seemingly forgotten--the point is to reduce ILLEGAL immigrants in the state.

ILLEGAL.

People who are committing a statutory crime. Adult runaways, as it were. Take any of the stories about the illegals and replace the description with "runaway", and you'd have everyone up in arms that the teenagers WEREN'T being sent home. There's a lot more similarity than one might think--teenage runaways (who are technically only committing a statutory crime by choosing to leave their homes) subsist on exactly the same underground market as illegal immigrants, have the same likelihood of other crimes (such as drugs, prostitution, working with false documentation, shoplifting, etc), and are just as likely to cause a burden on state systems.....

[Calexxia]

Oh, and apparently there are several provisions of 1070 that have been struck down as of today: http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/ ... 28-ON.html

[bane]

You mean tank more so than it already has in the last 3 years? A dearth of undocumented service and day laborer jobs isn't going to affect jack squat.

The loss of apartment rental income, grocer sales, restaurant sales, tote the note car lot sales etc sure will. Not to mention the increase in housing and manufacturing costs. Businesses will close as a result of this and I think the overall cost of living will escalate. There is something to be said for the lowering of social program costs, but I don't think it'll come close to offsetting the losses. As a social experiment it'll be interesting to watch. I think it's a mistake on Arizona's part, but I guess we'll find out.

I think you are dead wrong on this. So much of the illegal economy is underground. They are shoping at Lupe's corner market more often the safeway and from the way they stack up in houses and apartments half a million could leave and you would only lose about 100 rental units.

Check cashing places and third rate auto dealers might close up but I think that is a great thing for the big picture.

The illegal community isn't self contained. Plenty of legitimate businesses make a shit ton of money off of illegal immigrants. In my city alone there are hundreds maybe even thousands of apartment complexes that cater to illegals. The property tax losses that will result from the closure of such places will be an issue. Hopefully the trade off from no longer paying to educate children of illegals will offset the loss, but it's a toss up IMO. and if you don't think illegals shop at legitimate stores, you've never been to a Fiesta. I am reasonably certain that the economic impact will be felt by everyone in that state and will first manifest itself through higher property taxes and increased housing costs. The severity of the impact and the offset of lowered social costs are in question, but there is little doubt that the economy will be adversely affected.

[bane]

While I've repeatedly stated my objections to SB 1070, I DO need to point out something that keeps is seemingly forgotten--the point is to reduce ILLEGAL immigrants in the state.

ILLEGAL.

People who are committing a statutory crime. Adult runaways, as it were. Take any of the stories about the illegals and replace the description with "runaway", and you'd have everyone up in arms that the teenagers WEREN'T being sent home. There's a lot more similarity than one might think--teenage runaways (who are technically only committing a statutory crime by choosing to leave their homes) subsist on exactly the same underground market as illegal immigrants, have the same likelihood of other crimes (such as drugs, prostitution, working with false documentation, shoplifting, etc), and are just as likely to cause a burden on state systems.....

I'm not arguing the morality of it. I don't see that as being in question.Illegals are by definition commiting a crime by being here. I'm arguing the economic impact. The simple truth is that we have allowed this to go on so long that ending it abrubtly will cause a huge economic vacuum IMO. I think there is a much better way to tackle the problem. Most people can't stomach it because they can't get around the "But they broke the law!!!!111!" thing, but once you take a step back and look at it from a more rational perspective, the solution is pretty simple.

[Calexxia]

From even an economic standpoint, look at the parallel I drew.

And, as I've said before, I am NOT a supporter of 1070. I have long stated that I feel the immigration process should be made easier, but with much higher penalties for being illegal.

Yes, Arizona is placing a dangerous bet--that social system gains will offset direct economic loss. I won't dispute that. But, just as many people are willing to boycott Arizona, there are others who may choose to move here out of a misguided belief that AZ is doing the "right thing".

The "fringe" economy--the tote your note lots, the check cashing places, etc--will not be the only businesses that will feel an impact. And, yes, many illegals are willing to do the work that legals are not. But I am absolutely sick and tired of all the media stories that are neglecting the fact that these people are here illegally. It doesn't make someone a "better person" that they came here and did not follow the proper procedures to become a citizen, and many of the anecdotal articles try to paint that picture, as if the illegals are somehow being persecuted.

And, yes, I'm naive enough to believe that the losses could be offset by the economic boost of legalizaing marijuana.

[Calexxia]

http://laist.com/2010/07/28/before_immi ... effect.php

26,000 deportees from Maricopa County alone. (However, it does not state through what time period--that could be MTD, YTD, or since the inception of the program)

[bane]

From even an economic standpoint, look at the parallel I drew.

And, as I've said before, I am NOT a supporter of 1070. I have long stated that I feel the immigration process should be made easier, but with much higher penalties for being illegal.

Yes, Arizona is placing a dangerous bet--that social system gains will offset direct economic loss. I won't dispute that. But, just as many people are willing to boycott Arizona, there are others who may choose to move here out of a misguided belief that AZ is doing the "right thing".

The "fringe" economy--the tote your note lots, the check cashing places, etc--will not be the only businesses that will feel an impact. And, yes, many illegals are willing to do the work that legals are not. But I am absolutely sick and tired of all the media stories that are neglecting the fact that these people are here illegally. It doesn't make someone a "better person" that they came here and did not follow the proper procedures to become a citizen, and many of the anecdotal articles try to paint that picture, as if the illegals are somehow being persecuted.

And, yes, I'm naive enough to believe that the losses could be offset by the economic boost of legalizaing marijuana.

I'm not sure where you're seeing these "feel good" stories that negate the fact that illegals are here illegally. I've seen the polar opposite, you know "Illegal alien drunk driver kills 3", or "Illegal alien shoots police officer" etc. Anyway, no argument that there is a large chunk of th eillegal populace that are pretty unsavory characters. It goes along with that whole fringe populace thing. My solution would be to give the illegals that are here and contributing to society in a positive manner the right to work and to pay taxes. Yes, that would be called an amnesty. I'm not talking citizenship. I'm talking green card with an evetual shot at citizenship. That weeds out the undesirables. You get caught with a DWI, drug offense, what the fuck ever, and you are out of here, but as long as you mind your P's and Q's and walk the line, you can stay. That would have to be followed by a crackdown on employers hiring illegals. I'm talking serious crackdown. Something like a 50K fine per offense or something. It has to be enough of a fine that employers won't take the risk. The IRS can track it easily enough. It solves the problem on all fronts. No negative economic impact now, and immigrants will stop coming here illegally because nobody will hire them. Problem solved, easy peasey. Reagan tried half of that equation. It didn't work because he never did the second part. It only works if you do both.

[Calexxia]

Th Los Angeles and Phoenix papers have been running them as "human interest" stories.

[bane]

Th Los Angeles and Phoenix papers have been running them as "human interest" stories.

Haven't seen any of them, but living where you do, I find it hard to believe that you don't see more negative illegal alien stories than you do these human interest stories? Personally, I don't have much of a problem with a story about some guy that fled a life of horrendous poverty and violence for the greener pastures of the US and made good on it, whether he did it legally or not, but maybe that's just me.

[Fordtruckman]

adios cabrones !

[grishnak boss]

[AcillateM]

I'm gonna open up a great big FIESTA next to bane.