Jobs Data Breaks Pattern That Was Boosting Obama Re-Election

[brotherplanet]

A smaller than forecast addition of 120,000 jobs last month broke a pattern that was giving U.S. voters a growing sense of security and boosting President Barack Obama as Republican Mitt Romney attacked his economic record.

The Labor Department reported today that employers added 120,000 jobs in March, after an increase of 227,000 the previous month. It was the fewest jobs added in five months. Unemployment fell to 8.2 percent, the lowest since January 2009, from 8.3 percent

Obama said “we welcome” the added jobs and the decline in the unemployment rate. The economy’s created more than 4 million private sector jobs in the past two years, more than 600,000 in the past three months, he said.

“But, it’s clear to every American that there will still be ups and downs along the way and that we’ve got a lot more work to do,” the president said at a forum on women and the economy at the White House.

Romney said Obama has created a “stagnant” employment market.

“Millions of Americans are paying a high price for President Obama’s economic policies, and more and more people are growing so discouraged that they are dropping out of the labor force altogether,” the former Massachusetts governor said in a statement released by his campaign.
‘I’m Nervous’

Today’s data showed unemployed workers left the labor force as Americans worked fewer hours and earned less on average per week.

“I’m nervous,” said Jared Bernstein, former chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden. The “downside surprise” may be “payback” for warm weather that boosted job creation in the early months of 2012, he said.

The chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, Alan Krueger, said “it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report.” There have been 25 straight months of job growth in the private sector, he said.

A rise in jobs bolsters household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, even as those households are threatened by higher gasoline costs. Regular gasoline at the pump, averaged nationwide, rose 0.8 cent on April 4 to $3.936, according to AAA, the biggest U.S. motoring club. Prices have risen 20 percent this year and are 6.8 percent above a year ago.


Trend Toward Recovery

Still, there are signs the economy is on a trend toward recovery.

The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.1 percent in August. Consumer confidence climbed last week to the highest level in four years as brighter job prospects and an advancing stock market bolstered Americans’ view of the economy.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 31.4 in the period ended April 1, the best reading since March 2008, from minus 34.7 the prior week. All three of its components, the economy, personal finances and buying plans, advanced.

The Bloomberg consumer sentiment figures also showed some good news for Obama’s re-election bid. Democrats’ confidence rose to minus 25.2, and that of political independents increased to minus 29.1, both the best since 2007.

“Confidence is critical,” Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, chief economist at Ford Motor Co., said April 3 on a conference call with analysts.
Delinquencies Fall

Consumer-loan delinquencies fell in the fourth quarter as borrowers benefited from improving job and housing markets, the American Bankers Association said yesterday.

Total delinquencies in the 11 loan categories surveyed by the Washington trade group fell to 2.49 percent of all accounts, from 2.59 percent in the preceding quarter, the ABA said in its Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin. It marked the first quarter in eight years that all 11 loan categories fell.

Obama’s presidential rivals have criticized his stewardship of the economy, which has played a leading role in the Republican debates. The Republicans haven’t swerved from the main theme that the unemployment rate remains too high.

The economy has been central to Romney’s presidential campaign, as he criticizes the Obama administration for failing to pull the country out of the recession more quickly.

“He points out that he did not cause the recession, and that’s true,” the Republican front-runner said at an event in Milwaukee on April 2. “But he’s the one we looked to to end the recession and to lead a recovery, and he didn’t.”


Reagan’s Recovery

Since World War II, no U.S. president has won re-election with a jobless rate above 6 percent, with the exception of Ronald Reagan, who faced 7.2 percent unemployment on Election Day in 1984.

“Unemployment, he said he’d keep under 8 percent -- itself a very high level, 8 percent -- he said he’d keep it under 8 percent if we let him borrow $787 billion, and it has not been under 8 percent since 37 months ago,” Romney said.

The $787 billion refers to the 2009 economic-stimulus package that Republicans say did little to jump-start the economy.

The labor market is still weak, so there’s still a case to be made, Phillip Swagel, a White House economist during President George W. Bush’s administration, said in an interview before the report.

“There’s a sense that this might be the best we’re going to see,” he said, with the unemployment rate still above 8 percent and an economy growing “maybe about 2.5 percent.”
‘Not Enough’

“That means jobs growth will continue but moderate,” Swagel said. “It’s not enough” to reduce the jobless rate.

Swagel said another downturn in Europe, a surge in oil prices, another debt-ceiling showdown in Washington after the election or some other surprise shock could derail the nation’s slow recovery.

The Congressional Budget Office has predicted 8.9 percent unemployment for the year, while the Federal Reserve has projected between 8.2 percent and 8.5 percent.

The new report is “certainly disappointing,” said Chris Rupkey, managing director and chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd in New York. “The president looked on much firmer ground talking about recovery in the labor market and today it’s a little shakier.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-0 ... added.html

[tin00can]

So are these the statistics we are supposed to believe?

[brotherplanet]

It's current.

So I don't misinterpret the meaning behind your question, are you sarcastically trying to say we shouldn't believe this report?

Did you believe the ones that said we were down to an 8.3 % unemployment rate from an 8.5%, because that was true as well, but things once again have slowed to more than a crawl.

Though 8.5% to 8.3% was nothing to brag about.

[Luminiferous]

It could rise to 10.3% on Monday and still none of the current GOP crop of contenders is getting into the White House in November unless they're part of a guided tour..

[brotherplanet]

You might be right.

[Skate4RnR]

If that goddamn bastard'd push for some big time tax cuts maybe we'd see some jobs around here. McDonald's and Walmart hire more when that's going on.

[brotherplanet]

And if he would approve that fucking pipeline even more people would have jobs.

The only idea he has that I like is wanting to give tax breaks to companys that import jobs back to the United States while getting rid of the tax breaks companies get when they export jobs.



This of course freaked me out. We reward companies for sending our jobs to India and China and the Philippines!

[DEATH ROW JOE]

Bush's job numbers were far weaker during his first term. He was not only re-elected but the GOP called it the Bush Boom.

121,000 jobs added to the private sector last month. If private sector jobs grow at that pace through October, then there will be 111.671 million employed in the private sector on election day. Which will mean private sector employment increased by 686,000 from inauguration to election day.

Jan 2009: 110.985 million employed in the private sector
Oct 2012: 111.671 million employed in the private sector
686,000 added between inauguration and election day during Obama's first term.

Jan 2001: 111.631 million employed in the private sector
Oct 2004: 110.463 million employed in the private sector
1.2 million private sector jobs lost between inauguration and election day during Bush's first term. That was called "The Bush Boom."

[brotherplanet]

Yes, but it's 2012 and Bush isn't President.

When did Bush become the President that sets the bar? If you're just a little better than someone horrible it doesn't mean you're good, it means you're bad instead of horrible.

Bush was horrible.

Obama is bad.

Now, you're saying there will be 686,000 new jobs come election day. Well that's great. So instead of 13,000,000 people being out of work, 12,314,000 people will be out of work. And of course the number will be higher because only people collecting unemployment checks are counted. Those whose unemployment ran out, and are still unemployed, aren't counted.

[DEATH ROW JOE]

Yes, but it's 2012 and Bush isn't President.

Nobody said Bush was president.

When did Bush become the President that sets the bar?

Nobody said Bush "set the bar." The title of the thread you started is Jobs Data Breaks Pattern That Was Boosting Obama Re-Election. That begs the question as to what extent these job numbers are going to impact Obama's re-election chances. The historical fact that voters did not vote Bush out of office on weaker job numbers helps answer that question. It's also amusing that 1.2 million private sector jobs lost was a "Bush Boom" to the GOP while 4 million+ added over 2 years is malaise under Obama.

Now, you're saying there will be 686,000 new jobs come election day. Well that's great. So instead of 13,000,000 people being out of work, 12,314,000 people will be out of work.

It's more than 686,000 new jobs. There should be at least 111.671 million employed in the private sector on election day. At the trough of the employment cycle, there were 106.773 million employed in the private sector. That means almost 5 million private sector jobs are added to the economy from March 2010 to election day November 2012.

People are unemployed because of a recession that started in Dec 2007. What matters is private sector job growth. That is the number that tells you how the job market is recovering. The number unemployed merely tells you how much damage was done by the Bush recession.

Also, there were 7.6 million unemployed when the economy was at full employment at the start of the Bush recession in Dec 2007. Not citing that fact to put the current number in context is misleading. You make it sound like 13 million jobs have to be created to reach full employment.

And of course the number will be higher because only people collecting unemployment checks are counted. Those whose unemployment ran out, and are still unemployed, aren't counted.

Once again you are misinformed. Whether or not they are collecting unemployment is irrelevant. According to the labor department these are the people counted as unemployed:

Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.

From these definitions and examples, it can be seen that the total unemployment figures cover more than the number of persons who have lost jobs. It includes persons who have quit their jobs to look for other employment, workers whose temporary jobs have ended, persons looking for their first jobs, and experienced workers looking for jobs after an absence from the labor force.


http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed

fixed your photo for you. Try to find one next time where the black president does not look like a monkey. It will help you look like less of a racist idiot.

[brotherplanet]

Yeah, the race card doesn't work, but nice try... Funny how you thought he looked like a monkey in that pic even though monkeys don't look like that.

You just told us more about yourself than you did about anything else.


Dude, stop giving us the number of people employed as if it changes how many people are unemployed. If someone did that during the Great Depression people would have been mislead to believe all those food lines were just their imagination.

Good try though.

We've got about 13,000,000 people out of work. If 111.671 million people are employed 13,000,000 people are still out of work.

Do you work in the White House?