Metal Sludge Gossip Board

'Real' Unemployment Rate Shows Far More Jobless


While the national unemployment rate paints a grim picture, a look at individual states and their so-called real jobless rates becomes even more troubling.

The government's most widely publicized unemployment rate measures only those who are out of a job and currently looking for work. It does not count discouraged potential employees who have quit looking, nor those who are underemployed — wanting to work full-time but forced to work part-time.

For that count, the government releases a separate number called the "U-6," which provides a more complete tally of how many people really are out of work.

The numbers in some cases are startling.

Consider: Nevada's U-6 rate is 22.1 percent, up from just 7.6 percent in 2007. Economically troubled California has a 20.3 percent real rate, while Rhode Island is at 18.3 percent, more than double its 8.3 percent rate in 2007.

Those numbers compare especially unfavorably to the national rate, high in itself at 14.9 percent though off its record peak of 17.2 percent in October 2009.

Only three states — Nebraska (9.1 percent), South Dakota (8.6 percent) and North Dakota (6.1 percent) — have U-6 rates under 10 percent, according to research from RBC Capital Markets.

Election battleground states paint a picture not much more flattering. Florida's U-6 number is an ugly 17 percent, though Pennsylvania and Ohio are both around 14 percent, below the national U-6 average.

The numbers come as the government prepares to release its latest reading, the July nonfarm payrolls number, on Friday. Economists expect the report show about 100,000 jobs created for the month and the traditional "U-3" rate to hold steady at 8.2 percent.

"The lack of improvement in state U-6 rates continues to be troubling," Chris Mauro, head of US Municipals Strategy at RBC, said in a research note. "While down from recent peaks, state U-6 levels remain dramatically higher than they were in 2007 and 2008."

Mauro used the numbers to demonstrate that investing in municipal bonds remains a challenge because high real unemployment rates will be a drain on local finances.

"We remain concerned about the corrosive influence that these stubbornly high U-6 rates may have on both consumer sentiment and state and local tax revenues," he said. "At current levels, these U-6 rates will continue to be a drag on credit quality."


http://www.cnbc.com/id/48468748

Economically troubled California has a 20.3 percent real rate

Go ahead and explain how economic output for California can be at about the same level as 2007 (last year of full employment) with this extremely high "real" unemployment rate.

Has there been some massive increase in worker productivity in California? The state's population has grown less than 1%/year since 2007 so it's not population growth.

Real GDP for California:
2007: 1,763,450
2011: 1,735,360
http://www.bea.gov/iTable/print.cfm?fid ... 40340E8E52



So far as U6 rates, once again, you are posting data summarized by someone else that you could easily summarize yourself if you had half a brain.

Alternative measures of labor underutilization by state
http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

Now if you knew anything about the relationship between U3 and U6, you would know that the ratio between U3 and U6 is usually about 55%.

So U3 in Nevada = 12.3%

What would you expect U6 to be?

12.3/.55 = 22.3%

U6 rate in Nevada is 22.1%

U3 in California is 11.2%

What would you expect u6 to be?

11.2/.55 = 20.3%

U6 rate in California is 20.3%

U3 rate nationally = 8.3%
U6 rate nationally = 15%

8.3/15 = 56.6%


So this "real unemployment" rate is not showing anything additional. You would expect U6 rate in California to be 20.3% when U3 rate is 11.2%.

But go ahead and explain how the state can have aprox. the same economic output with such a high unemployment rate. It will be fun to watch you try to explain something rather that merely post "bad news."

Luminiferous wrote:Anyone get the feeling birtherplanet purposely posts a bunch of half assed ill informed news articles in hopes someone schools him and he then takes it to another board and uses it to prove himself the internet political guru?

No. I bet he is stupid everywhere.

Luminiferous wrote:Anyone get the feeling birtherplanet purposely posts a bunch of half assed ill informed news articles in hopes someone schools him and he then takes it to another board and uses it to prove himself the internet political guru?

That doesn't sound like a half-bad scheme. Hmmm.

The U6 unemployment numbers use by the minority party against the party in power is nothing new. Democrats were trying to use it to attack Republicans during the Bush years back when the national unemployment rate was 4 and 5%.

Not that I like it or want it, but I have believed for quite some time now, that the actual national unemployment rate is double digits.

I was shocked when I called a local food bank to help out and someone told me that their needs went up 65% in 2 years time.

I see so many "for lease" signs on office buildings. I wish it were not the case, but I think most of the media is either clueless or not really telling you the full story.

FullMetalWhackit wrote:The U6 unemployment numbers use by the minority party against the party in power is nothing new. Democrats were trying to use it to attack Republicans during the Bush years back when the national unemployment rate was 4 and 5%.

And is it accurate?

Because regardless of which party uses it that's the important part

brotherplanet wrote:'Real' Unemployment Rate Shows Far More Jobless


While the national unemployment rate paints a grim picture, a look at individual states and their so-called real jobless rates becomes even more troubling.

The government's most widely publicized unemployment rate measures only those who are out of a job and currently looking for work. It does not count discouraged potential employees who have quit looking, nor those who are underemployed — wanting to work full-time but forced to work part-time.

For that count, the government releases a separate number called the "U-6," which provides a more complete tally of how many people really are out of work.

The numbers in some cases are startling.

Consider: Nevada's U-6 rate is 22.1 percent, up from just 7.6 percent in 2007. Economically troubled California has a 20.3 percent real rate, while Rhode Island is at 18.3 percent, more than double its 8.3 percent rate in 2007.

Those numbers compare especially unfavorably to the national rate, high in itself at 14.9 percent though off its record peak of 17.2 percent in October 2009.

Only three states — Nebraska (9.1 percent), South Dakota (8.6 percent) and North Dakota (6.1 percent) — have U-6 rates under 10 percent, according to research from RBC Capital Markets.

Election battleground states paint a picture not much more flattering. Florida's U-6 number is an ugly 17 percent, though Pennsylvania and Ohio are both around 14 percent, below the national U-6 average.

The numbers come as the government prepares to release its latest reading, the July nonfarm payrolls number, on Friday. Economists expect the report show about 100,000 jobs created for the month and the traditional "U-3" rate to hold steady at 8.2 percent.

"The lack of improvement in state U-6 rates continues to be troubling," Chris Mauro, head of US Municipals Strategy at RBC, said in a research note. "While down from recent peaks, state U-6 levels remain dramatically higher than they were in 2007 and 2008."

Mauro used the numbers to demonstrate that investing in municipal bonds remains a challenge because high real unemployment rates will be a drain on local finances.

"We remain concerned about the corrosive influence that these stubbornly high U-6 rates may have on both consumer sentiment and state and local tax revenues," he said. "At current levels, these U-6 rates will continue to be a drag on credit quality."


http://www.cnbc.com/id/48468748

I usually only post in the Original Gossip Board on this forum...and I haven't posted here until now for a variety of reasons. However, it's now time to chime in and tell ya that DEATH ROW JOE is a COLOSSAL DOUCHE-BAG and is simply THE biggest spin doctor you can imagine on this forum. He should NOT be trusted. And I'd personally like to thank you for posting this explicit report on the U-6 unemployment rate, since I agree it's as close to accurate as you can get. Whereas, the U-3 unemployment rate is a fucking joke. The U-6 unemployment rate should seriously be utilized more often by mainstream media and the US Government because it truly is the REAL unemployment rate.


So, thank you.

Peace.