Metal Sludge Gossip Board

A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.

The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.

It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.

Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” explained Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder who developed the prediction model with Michael Berry of University of Colorado-Denver.

“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears,” Berry noted, ”when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent. The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”

Bickers said large issues like the economy and the country’s overall direction tend to determine presidential elections. Computerized prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” he said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”

Bickers and Berry cautioned, however, that their model used economic data from June, 2012. They intend to update their calculations when new data become available in September.

And many swing states showed close enough to a 50-50 split that factors other than the economy could tilt them in the opposite direction. Bicker and Berry also did not factor in third party candidates, such as Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson, who Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-affiliated polling firm, has noted could significantly diminish Obama’s chances of winning New Mexico.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/unive ... romney-win

romney pulls ahead of obama....47 - 46

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... _page.html

Drunk Kennedy wrote:The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.

Their model is useless since no president since 1980 inherited an economy that looked like this:




Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

Monday, August 27, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows President Obama attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

This is the president’s biggest lead since May.

not quite as pretty and fancy as all your charts 'n stuff...but far more accurate:

LMFAO, you're posting something that was posted last week dunce cap. Talk about having your head in the sand.

Here you go stupid:

Posted Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:00 pm

Analysis That Has Predicted Every Pres. Winner Since 1980
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=275701

How's old Ron Paul doing?

i dont give a fuck when, or how many times it was posted ya knucklehead....the point remains the same.

obama is in a world of hurt. romney has closed a 6 pt gap in less than a month.

with ++ $4 gas and ++ 8% unemployment, and close to 40% of eligible voters saying they are just gonna sit this one out (vast majority are dems), you have to be delusional (as you clearly are) to think the results are gonna favor obama.

but you keep on keepin on with your pretty little graphs.

its gonna be awful quiet around here after november.

Does that take into account that the latest polls are saying Romney will be getting 0% of the Black vote?

I would also be curious to see numbers on the Latino vote and the women's vote. I don't think he is polling very well with either group.

Obama spent the first 2 years bending over for the Republicans and giving them everything they wanted. He was trying so hard to make them like him he practically alienated his own party. I have not figured out why they didn't like him, he did what ever they wanted.

Like I said in that other thread though, they have ALL gotten out of control. The whole damn system is broken. The fact that a senator or congressman can go to Washington upper middle class and come out wealthy is ridiculous. It is also ridiculous that they get a full pension after only one term WITH healthcare. I believe that if they all want to run around and talk about how fantastic the Founding Fathers were and how much we need to be like them then we should go back to how it REALLY was then and make Congress their part time job.

Because they are the ones who would have to GIVE themselves term limits and lets face it, none of those fuckers are going to vote themselves out of a job. Hell, the only reason the president has a term limit is because FDR was so popular he got voted in 4 times and that scared them after that and the imposed the 2 term limit. They SHOULD have done the same for themselves. Crooked bastards- all of them.

I support term limits as well, but the political class is staunchly opposed to it. I mean, can you imagine Maxine Waters campaigning on term limits?

MotleyMaiden wrote:Does that take into account that the latest polls are saying Romney will be getting 0% of the Black vote?

That was funny. I liked that.

MotleyMaiden wrote:I would also be curious to see numbers on the Latino vote and the women's vote. I don't think he is polling very well with either group.

No he is not. Republicans never do. The woman vote is keeping Obama afloat. Men prefer Romney.

FullMetalWhackit wrote:

MotleyMaiden wrote:I would also be curious to see numbers on the Latino vote and the women's vote. I don't think he is polling very well with either group.

No he is not. Republicans never do. The woman vote is keeping Obama afloat. Men prefer Romney.

LMFAO, more like the white male vote is keeping Romney afloat. If Obama had two white parents, Romney would be down about 10 points right now. The racists are keeping Romney in the race at this stage. That's why he keeps lying about Obama getting rid of the welfare work requirement and cracking "birther" jokes. Most of the ads on his website deal with his lie about welfare's work requirement.

Scarborough: Romney welfare ads are "completely false"

Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe today, responding to Mitt Romney's series of TV ads claiming that Barack Obama has gutted welfare reform.

"I've been looking for a week-and-a-half to try to figure out the basis of this welfare reform ad, I've scoured the Wall Street Journal editorial pages, I've scoured.... the ad's completely false. It's just completely false. And I'm pretty stunned."

http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/scarbo ... s-are.html


Numbers on Latino votes:

Romney Combined………………..26
Obama Combined………………...65

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/56 ... week_1.pdf

From that same poll:

Thinking about the last two administrations, which would you say is MOST responsible for the economic downturn these last few years? Would you say the economic policies of President George W. Bush or President Barack Obama are more to blame?
Bush is to blame ...................................................................... 68
Obama is to blame .................................................................. 14
Both are to blame (VOL) ...................................................... 10
Neither / something else ......................................................... 3
Don’t know ................................................................................ 4


Numbers on Women:
Obama 51%
Romney 41%

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Secti ... _Sched.pdf

Women: Obama +10
Men: Romney +9

FullMetalWhackit wrote:Women: Obama +10
Men: Romney +9

What's your point? Romney gets little to no support from black men and only 26% of Latinos support him. Put those numbers together with your number and you see that white males are keeping Romney afloat.

With white males, though, Obama trails Romney by 26 points, 60 to 34 percent, in Pew’s survey. In a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday, the spread is 21, 55 to 34 percent.

Pew poll white males:
Romney 60
Obama 34

Quinnipiac poll white males
Romney 55
Obama 34

Want to know why Santorum is speaking at the convention tonight?

Santorum: "I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money."

Santorum: I'll Protect Your Tax Dollars From Black People
http://youtu.be/JgLMghcPDVs

DEATH ROW JOE wrote:

FullMetalWhackit wrote:Women: Obama +10
Men: Romney +9

What's your point? Romney gets little to no support from black men and only 26% of Latinos support him. Put those numbers together with your number and you see that white males are keeping Romney afloat.

With white males, though, Obama trails Romney by 26 points, 60 to 34 percent, in Pew’s survey. In a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday, the spread is 21, 55 to 34 percent.

Pew poll white males:
Romney 60
Obama 34

Quinnipiac poll white males
Romney 55
Obama 34

Want to know why Santorum is speaking at the convention tonight?

Santorum: "I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money."

Santorum: I'll Protect Your Tax Dollars From Black People
http://youtu.be/JgLMghcPDVs

Fuck! Talk about singling out an entire race on welfare and depicts them as the only people collecting it. That was further proof that anybody can run for President. How fitting that he feels completely comfortable talking like that in a state that hardly has any black people, and how comfortable they are standing next to a candidate that is a walking talking example of ignorance that they applaud his words. That pic also further depicts how many stupid people we have here and how fucked we are compared to the other first world industrialized nations in the near future.

Interestingly men make up the majority of the remaining undecided vote. No word yet on their skin color.

Drunk Kennedy wrote:not quite as pretty and fancy as all your charts 'n stuff...but far more accurate:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!

brotherplanet wrote:

Drunk Kennedy wrote:not quite as pretty and fancy as all your charts 'n stuff...but far more accurate:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!

Bourbon Cowboy wrote:

MotleyMaiden wrote:Obama spent the first 2 years bending over for the Republicans and giving them everything they wanted. He was trying so hard to make them like him he practically alienated his own party. I have not figured out why they didn't like him, he did what ever they wanted.

Clinton started doing the exact same thing after the Republican Revolution. In fact he actually worked really well with Congress when his own party wasn't in charge.

Yet, they still hated him. He had a great quote. "They will never forgive me for winning."

Wheresthestagemanager? wrote:How's old Ron Paul doing?

Better question....
How's the economy doing?

Dr J Jones wrote:

Wheresthestagemanager? wrote:How's old Ron Paul doing?

Better question....
How's the economy doing?

It's slowly picking up. Thanks for asking.

That's not good enough Sorry..

I have higher expectations than that.

SeminiferousButtNoid wrote:I support term limits as well, but the political class is staunchly opposed to it. I mean, can you imagine Maxine Waters campaigning on term limits?

Can you imagine Maxine Waters having a real job, where civility, intelligence and professionalism is required? She's a fucking idiot, along with a large number of the Congress & Senate.

SeminiferousButtNoid wrote:I support term limits as well, but the political class is staunchly opposed to it. I mean, can you imagine Maxine Waters campaigning on term limits?

Clarence Thomas and the other justices should adhere to term limits as well. So much pussay, so little time.