Romney 48% - Obama 45%

[brotherplanet]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.



The recent numbers may have been impacted by a number of factors. Clearly, one is the fading of the president’s convention bounce. Last week, Scott Rasmussen anticipated this fade by noting that the conventions would have no lasting impact on the race. This is why I laugh when people point to the convention bounce and cheer. Those numbers never last past two-three weeks after the convention. It happens this way every time and the sheep fall for it every time. Pay attention in four years when it happens again.

Additionally, last week’s jobs report was disappointing. However, consumer confidence did not fall in the wake of that report. That may be due to the fact that the poor results were no surprise to consumers. Confidence also may have been impacted by the Fed decision to provide additional stimulus. That decision boosted both the stock market and investor confidence. Nearly half of all consumers are also investors.

Finally, it is way too early to evaluate the political impact, if any, from recent events in the Middle East. Today’s tracking data shows that despite the extensive news coverage of Arab attacks on U.S. embassies, only six percent (6%) of voters consider national security issues the most important during this election cycle. That’s little changed from five percent (5%) before the attacks began. Additionally, voters currently trust the president more than Romney on national security issues by a narrow 46% to 43% margin. That, too, is little changed following recent events.

In Ohio Obama leads by a point. In Florida, the president is up two. Romney has edged back into the lead in Missouri and now earns 51% of the vote in North Carolina.

See the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Platinum Members can see demographic breakdowns and additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.

In his latest weekly newspaper column, Scott Rasmussen notes that “the health care debate is a great example of why Americans hate politics. Both Republicans and Democrats pursue their plans with ideological zeal and reckless disregard for the truth in hopes of winning 51 percent of the vote. Voters hold their nose and choose but would rather have their leaders search for consensus.” He adds that "building consensus on health care reform requires taking good ideas from both Democrats and Republicans. As far as voters are concerned, good ideas are the ones that give individuals more control over their own health care decisions.”

What America Thinks, the nationally syndicated television show hosted by Scott Rasmussen, will air on more than 60 television stations this weekend. In New York, the show will be seen at 10:30 Sunday morning on WLNY. In Los Angeles, it will air on KCBS at 4:30 on Saturday afternoon, right before the evening news. Check local listings for other markets. This week’s show will examine why voters aren’t thrilled with either candidate on the issue of job creation, look at the generation gap in American politics and explore attitudes towards the auto bailouts.

If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.

Scott’s commentary at the end of the inaugural show explained why What America Thinks is different from other weekend shows. Rather than talking about things from a DC perspective, “we start with public opinion and ask leaders to respond to what America thinks.”


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll


Here's the problem I see with Mitt. He's going to be another Obama, but he's going to have to bow down to the extreme right when it comes to picking the next Supreme Court Justice.

[DEATH ROW JOE]

This is why I laugh when people point to the convention bounce and cheer. Those numbers never last past two-three weeks after the convention. It happens this way every time and the sheep fall for it every time. Pay attention in four years when it happens again.

LMFAO, hilarious watching your uneducated white trash ass trying to educate people around here. You're essentially claiming the convention has no impact on the general election. If that were true, then the parties would not bother to hold a 3 day convention selling their platform to the public. The convention matters a great deal and the bounce after a convention measures the success of the convention.

Obama was around 55% on Intrade before the convention. Now he's over 67% and leading in every poll except the one you cherry picked.



General Election: Romney vs. Obama CBS News/NY Times Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Obama 49, Romney 44 Obama +5
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Democracy Corps (D) Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Esquire/Yahoo! News Obama 50, Romney 46 Obama +4
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 49, Romney 44 Obama +5
Florida: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 49, Romney 44 Obama +5
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 50, Romney 43 Obama +7
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 47, Romney 46 Obama +1
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2

[Turner Coates]

Yep.

[Dr J Jones]

none of this matters...

polls are meaningless

[KneelandBobDylan]

none of this matters...

polls are meaningless

No they aren't.

[RATTdrools]

Right on DR Joe!

The trend is clearly in the President's favor and the major of polls and Real Clear Politics has Obama solidly ahead!

[Turner Coates]

none of this matters...

polls are meaningless

Have you been listening to Limbaugh?
He said the Dems have been smearing the GOP by using "facts and polls".
How DARE they?!!!

[brotherplanet]

none of this matters...

polls are meaningless

Have you been listening to Limbaugh?
He said the Dems have been smearing the GOP by using "facts and polls".
How DARE they?!!!

Please tell me he said something different. Please tell me you twisted what he said and he's not actually that stupid.

How long until this man complains about the use of logic as a weapon?






You're right joey. And the fact that the Conventions have always given a candidate a bump that disappears is meaningless to you. Remember this four years from now.


Hey, you called me white trash. I'd love to know what trailer you're posting from. Oh, I insulted you. I guess this means someone will now ignore the fact that it's a response to what you wrote.

This place cracks me up!

[Turner Coates]

none of this matters...

polls are meaningless

Have you been listening to Limbaugh?
He said the Dems have been smearing the GOP by using "facts and polls".
How DARE they?!!!

Please tell me he said something different. Please tell me you twisted what he said and he's not actually that stupid.

How long until this man complains about the use of logic as a weapon?

My bad. I used the word "smear" instead of "suppress".
But yes, like Moggio, he is stupid beyond words (and he understands many more words than Moggio does).
Read it for yourself:
http://www.politicususa.com/rush-limbau ... -vote.html

[Dr J Jones]

none of this matters...

polls are meaningless

No they aren't.

Tell that to Jimmy Carter in 1979...same shit...different year

[Dr J Jones]

Rush Limbaugh is as big a baffoon as Rachel Maddow...

[KneelandBobDylan]

...same shit...different year

No it isn't.

[Danzig in the Dark]

For a couple of fence sitters, they sure do have quite the hardon for Romney.

[DEATH ROW JOE]

This is why I laugh when people point to the convention bounce and cheer. Those numbers never last past two-three weeks after the convention. It happens this way every time and the sheep fall for it every time. Pay attention in four years when it happens again.

Turns out you're wrong as usual. When you point and laugh, don't forget three fingers are pointing back dumb ass.

Gore was 16 points down before the 2000 convention, got a bounce and wound up winning the popular vote. Bush's bounce in 2004 gave him the lead and he kept it. Clinton got a huge convention bounce in 1992 and kept it. So really 2008 is the only recent election where a candidate got a bounce and then lost it. McCain lost his bounce due to the financial crisis, not because bounces are irrelevant.


1992: The Clinton campaign received the biggest convention "bounce" in history which brought him from 25 percent in the spring, behind Bush and Perot, to 55 percent versus Bush's 31 percent.

2000: Prior to the Democratic convention, Gore was behind Texas Gov. George W. Bush by as many as 16 points, but was in a statistical tie with the Republican the weekend after his acceptance speech.

2004:In the beginning of September, the successful Republican National Convention along with the allegations by Kerry's former mates gave Bush his first comfortable margin since Kerry had won the nomination.

2008: Polls indicated a small bounce for 2008 Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama after his party's convention in August, but as expected, much of it evaporated during and after the Republican convention the week following, yielding GOP candidate John McCain a small lead in several polls

Clearly, one is the fading of the president’s convention bounce.

Convention bounce is not fading. In fact, the lead is growing in Ohio which is a state Romney must win. Intrade exploded in Obama's favor and continues to move in his direction. Wishful thinking on the part of Rassmussen.

Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney
By NATE SILVER

Florida has a well-established reputation as a swing state. But as the election season has worn on, it has come to look even more important. Florida now ranks a clear second on our list of tipping point states, those most likely to provide the decisive votes in the Electoral College, behind only Ohio.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... or-romney/

[Moggio]

But yes, like Moggio, he is stupid beyond words (and he understands many more words than Moggio does).

Says the cocksmoker who can't win an argument to save his life, so he resorts to debating my TYPOS instead!

[pieceofme]

none of this matters...

polls are meaningless

[RATTdrools]

The President is ahead in the electoral college 237 to 191. The President is ahead in Florida and if he wins Florida he has 266 electoral votes and the election is basically over!

[brotherplanet]

Joey, you completely missed what I was saying about the bounce. The bounce is a sudden increase that then levels off and drops down a bit. Bush getting a bounce and then going on to win has nothing to do with what I wrote. Since both candidates get a bounce and somebody still has to win.


Dear God... I can only imagine how badly you've failed at life.

[Danzig in the Dark]

Joey, you completely missed what I was saying about the bounce. The bounce is a sudden increase that then levels off and drops down a bit. Bush getting a bounce and then going on to win has nothing to do with what I wrote. Since both candidates get a bounce and somebody still has to win.

You claim the 'bounce' is temporary and has no effect on the election and now you're instead claiming since both get a 'bounce', that it cancels out and thus has no effect. History says otherwise and the candidates rarely get equal 'bounces'. You're simply saying it doesn't matter for one reason or another and when you're shown to be incorrect, you change your argument.

Dear God... I can only imagine how badly you've failed at life.

And you have left nothing to the imagination.

[Turner Coates]

But yes, like Moggio, he is stupid beyond words (and he understands many more words than Moggio does).

Says the cocksmoker who can't win an argument to save his life, so he resorts to debating my TYPOS instead!

Ah, but an overwhelming majority of the Sludge Court Of Popular Opinion seems to agree with me, rather than you.
Go figure, Princess.
Are they all wrong about you? Are they actually bitter because you OWN them, or is that just your desperate defense mechanism?
I say your wheels fell off quite a long time ago.

[Moggio]

But yes, like Moggio, he is stupid beyond words (and he understands many more words than Moggio does).

Says the cocksmoker who can't win an argument to save his life, so he resorts to debating my TYPOS instead!

Ah, but an overwhelming majority of the Sludge Court Of Popular Opinion seems to agree with me, rather than you.
Go figure, Princess.
Are they all wrong about you? Are they actually bitter because you OWN them, or is that just your desperate defense mechanism?
I say your wheels fell off quite a long time ago.

Most sludgers are fucking idiots. So that means NOTHING to me. And yes, they're all wrong about me. Most are bitter. I say the wheels are coming off in Wheresthestagemanagerland!!!!!!

[DEATH ROW JOE]

This is why I laugh when people point to the convention bounce and cheer. Those numbers never last past two-three weeks after the convention. It happens this way every time and the sheep fall for it every time. Pay attention in four years when it happens again.

More evidence that you have your head up your ass.




Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change.

Translation:

[Turner Coates]

Most sludgers are fucking idiots. So that means NOTHING to me. And yes, they're all wrong about me. Most are bitter.

Release the hounds.

[UncleTomsCabin]

I work in politics. Rasmussen polls always tilt to the republican side because they over sample republicans. There polls are always mocked and they're not a good polestar to go by. Many sites are now not even counting them since they throw the averages of all the other polls off.

Of course the jackass who posted this wouldn't know that because he doesn't bother researching anything. He just copies and pastes what he sees on some blog.

[UncleTomsCabin]

www.electoral-vote.com

I have followed this guy since 2004 and past 2 elections he has only missed 2 states in each.

[Machado]

Anyway you slice it, both Romney and Ryan could care less about the national debt.
All they care about is getting into office based on lies and lowering taxes.