MITTEN'S MATH PROBLEM WORSENS

[DEATH ROW JOE]

Although national polls show a close race, Obama is currently a 2:1 favorite to win this election because the road to 270 electoral votes is considerably more difficult for Romney than it is for Obama. The president starts off with undisputed leads in 16 states and the District of Columbia with 237 electoral votes, 33 short of the 270 needed to win. Romney begins with equally clear leads in 23 states with 191 electoral votes, 79 short of a victory. Nine states with 110 electoral votes are in the admittedly broad Toss-Up column (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin). Obama needs to win 30 percent of those Toss-Up electoral votes; Romney needs 72 percent of those votes. As of today, Romney is only likely to pick up 44 of the 79 votes he needs.


Colorado (9) RCP Average = Tie
Florida (29) RCP Average = Romney +1.4
Iowa (6) RCP Average = Obama +2.3
New Hampshire (4) RCP Average = Obama +2.0
Nevada (6) Average = Obama +2.4
North Carolina (15) RCP Average = Romney +3.0
Ohio (18) RCP Average = Obama +1.9
Virginia (13) RCP Average = tie
Wisconsin (10) RCP Average = Obama +2.3

Colorado (9) Likelihood of Obama Victory = 52.7 %
Florida (29) Likelihood of Obama Victory = 26.6 %
Iowa (6) Likelihood of Obama Victory = 74.1 %
New Hampshire (4) Likelihood of Obama Victory =67.0 %
Nevada (6) Likelihood of Obama Victory = 87.0 %
North Carolina (15) Likelihood of Obama Victory = 15.2 %
Ohio (18) Likelihood of Obama Victory = 70.9 %
Virginia (13) Likelihood of Obama Victory = 50.1 %
Wisconsin (10) Likelihood of Obama Victory = 82.7 %