Metal Sludge Gossip Board

And ANYONE who thinks that there's anything but an ARTIFICIAL recovery going on right now, considering the Fed is now printing $85 BILLION per month (up from $40 BILLION per month),

Wrong as usual. Total fail. But good job parroting Ron Paul. For over a year prior to QE3, the Fed in net sold securities (destroyed dollars).

From Nov 2011 to Nov 2012, the Fed sold 884 million more than they purchased (destroyed dollars). They reduced traditional bond holdings, mortgage backed securities and liquidity to key markets.

They were not buying 40 billion/month.

Credit Easing Policy Tools
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/da ... /index.cfm

11/09/11 (millions)
Traditional Security Holdings 505911
Long Term Treasury Purchases 1142228
Lending to Financial Institutions 155632
Liquidity to Key Credit Markets 50948
Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch 956929
TOTAL:2811648.


11/09/12 (millions)
Traditional Security Holdings 360356
Long Term Treasury Purchases 1281805
Lending to Financial Institutions 231876
Liquidity to Key Credit Markets 2770
Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch 933957
Total:2810764.




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so far as fake recovery, you fail there as well.

Update: Recovery Measures
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/ ... sures.html

By request, here is an update to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments.

Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed - and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.

REAL GDP
This graph is for real GDP through Q1 2013.

Real GDP returned to the pre-recession peak in Q4 2011, and has hit new post-recession highs for six consecutive quarters.

At the worst point - in Q2 2009 - real GDP was off 4.7% from the 2007 peak.

Personal Income less Transfer
This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments as a percent of the previous peak through the March report.

This measure was off 11.2% at the trough in October 2009.

Real personal income less transfer payments returned to the pre-recession peak in December, but that was due to a one time surge in income as some high income earners accelerated earnings to avoid higher taxes in 2013. Real personal income less transfer payments declined sharply in January, and were 3.3% below the previous peak in March.

Real personal income less transfer payments might be the last major indicator to return to pre-recession levels (excluding the spike last December).

This measure was off 11.2% at the trough in October 2009.

Industrial Production
The third graph is for industrial production through March 2013.

Industrial production was off over 17% at the trough in June 2009, and has been one of the stronger performing sectors during the recovery.

However industrial production is still 1.3% below the pre-recession peak. This indicator will probably return to the pre-recession peak in 2013.

Employment:
The final graph is for employment and is through April 2013. This is similar to the graph I post every month comparing percent payroll jobs lost in several recessions.

Payroll employment is still 1.9% below the pre-recession peak and will probably be back to pre-recession levels in 2014.

All of these indicators collapsed in 2008 and early 2009, and only real GDP is back to the pre-recession peak (personal income returned to the previous peak in December due to a one time increase in income).

Keynesian Economics just doesn't do the trick, now does it?! Krugman (your obvious hero) isn't too bright, now is he?!



I absolutely LOVE how your charts only differ by a few percentage points, yet you act like that's a HUGE change. Funny shit.

Oh and btw, the Fed were printing $40 BILLION per month. But after QE3, they bumped it up to $85 BILLION. And as of this month, it's now $100 BILLION. So, you're somewhat correct on this point. However, since you're still almost COMPLETELY full of shit, as usual...

without further adu, BESTOWMENT #2:



And the ARTIFICIAL economic recovery continues...

Moggio wrote:
without further adu, BESTOWMENT #2:

Further proof it wasn't a typo Cornholio

Moggio wrote:So, you're somewhat correct on this point. However, since you're still almost COMPLETELY full of shit, as usual...

This witty retort defies all logic.

Moggio's playing it safe, in case he decides he needs to adopt Joe's info for argument's sake

VoiVod13 wrote:

Moggio wrote:
without further adu, BESTOWMENT #2:

Further proof it wasn't a typo Cornholio

Nope.

Grendel wrote: "BUY GOLD!" - Moggio Nov 6, 2012

You chart ends at about one month ago, asshole. And hence it doesn't show the increase afterwards.

Danzig in the Dark wrote:

Moggio wrote:So, you're somewhat correct on this point. However, since you're still almost COMPLETELY full of shit, as usual...

This witty retort defies all logic.

Makes perfect sense. But of course, you quoted me OUT OF CONTEXT.