Fed's Advisory Council Admits We're Screwed

[Moggio]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIyEKn6GEAs

Discuss...

[Danzig in the Dark]

What is your aversion to the written word? Dyslexia? Poor education?

[Moggio]

What is your aversion to the written word? Dyslexia? Poor education?

I don't have an aversion to the written word, asshole. But on the other hand, you are exceptional at throwing ad-hominems at me, instead of stepping up to the plate and debating. Back to the sidelines, kid...

[DEATH ROW JOE]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIyEKn6GEAs

Discuss...

LMFAO, you're an idiot and Peter Schiff is a joke. That's not a link to a Fed statement. It's a link to a Schiff video where he continues to make a fool of himself. His statement about inflation contradicts statements he has made about "out of control govt spending." If the inflation number is as high as he claims, then govt spending has not even kept pace with inflation.

He claims the inflation numbers are too low and that once you calculate real GDP using his fantasy inflation numbers, the economy has not expanded and is still in recession. How does he explain 6 million jobs added to the private sector since Feb 2010? He doesn't. How has industrial production grown? Is that another bogus number? Of course not. The business cycle dating committee uses real GDP, employment, industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments to measure the trough of the business cycle.



Schiff wants to use a Big Mac to measure inflation. He says the true rate of inflation since 2004 is 6.1%/year. If that's true, then the economy has been in recession for 9 years and spending in FY 2012 is lower than in FY 2003 after adjusting for inflation.

Peter Schiff Big Mac Index Exposes Flawed Inflation Data
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/20 ... umber.html

From 1986 to 2003 the U.S. BMI rose roughly in line with the CPI. Although the burger occasionally rose faster or slower, over that 17 year period both indexes increased by about 68% (or about 4% per year). But from April 2003 to January 2013 the CPI Index is up just 25% percent (from 183.8 to 230.28 or about 2.5% per year) while the BMI is up 61% (from $2.71 to $4.37 or about 6.1% per year), or more than twice the rate of inflation.




Use Schiff's inflation number to calculate real GDP and real GDP growth and you get an absurd result. The economy was growing at a mere .3% in 2004 and 2005, at the peak of the housing bubble. The economy has been in recession since 2006. The 2012 economy is 18% smaller than the 2003 economy once adjusting for inflation.

Nominal GDP 2003: 11,142.2
Nominal GDP 2012: 15,684.8

(11,142.2) x (1.061)^9 = 18,984.6

15,684.8/18,984.6 = 0.826

GDP - 6.1, % Chg. from Yr. Ago - 6.1, Annual, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=j7w
2004-01-01 0.28204%
2005-01-01 0.39355%
2006-01-01 -0.12519%
2007-01-01 -1.22977%
2008-01-01 -4.22598%
2009-01-01 -8.32438%
2010-01-01 -2.34151%
2011-01-01 -2.12177%
2012-01-01 -2.05972%
2013-01-01 -2.060195

Here is growth in federal spending adjusting for inflation using schiff's inflation number. Once taking Schiff's inflation number into account, spending in FY 2012 was 140 billion lower than in FY 2003. We've seen huge cuts in spending under Obama.

Federal spending:
FY 2003: 2,159,246
FY 2012: 3,538,446

2.159 x (1.061)^9 = 3.6786722602

FGEXPND - 6.1, % Chg. from Yr. Ago - 6.1, Annual, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=j7x
2004-01-01 -0.26759%
2005-01-01 1.40815%
2006-01-01 -0.06837%
2007-01-01 0.19330%
2008-01-01 1.33793%
2009-01-01 4.81889%
2010-01-01 1.06167%
2011-01-01 -4.65268%
2012-01-01 -6.08137%
2013-01-01 -8.32038%


Mandatory Reading:
http://www.hyperinflation-us.com/

[Moggio]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIyEKn6GEAs

Discuss...

LMFAO, you're an idiot and Peter Schiff is a joke. That's not a link to a Fed statement. It's a link to a Schiff video where he continues to make a fool of himself.

There you go AGAIN, putting words in my mouth. Peter Schiff is one of the FEW people on earth who accurately predicted the Housing Bubble Crisis. He is NOT a joke.

Also, I didn't say it was a link to a Fed statement, jerk-off. What it is, are minutes he obtained from the Fed's Advisory Council meeting. And it confirms what he's basically been stating all along: WE'RE SCREWED. You obviously did NOT watch the clip.

His statement about inflation contradicts statements he has made about "out of control govt spending." If the inflation number is as high as he claims, then govt spending has not even kept pace with inflation.

Government spending can certainly be, and ALWAYS is, out of control regardless if the REAL inflation rate is high or low. It doesn't contradict his statements at all.

And you STILL don't understand the difference between the OFFICIAL inflation rate and the REAL inflation rate - which no one knows for certain exactly what it is right now.

He claims the inflation numbers are too low and that once you calculate real GDP using his fantasy inflation numbers, the economy has not expanded and is still in recession.

Of course they're too low (and so is the interest rate, which is also being ARTIFICIALLY manipulated). And since they're printing $100 BILLION per month, borrowing nearly $4 BILLION per day, not to mention that the Employment Rate is 63.3% (THE lowest in US history since May 1979) and that there are now 47+ million people on food stamps compared to the 32 million on them 5 years ago, I'd say we're still in a recession. And ANY sane human being would agree.

How does he explain 6 million jobs added to the private sector since Feb 2010? He doesn't. How has industrial production grown? Is that another bogus number? Of course not. The business cycle dating committee uses real GDP, employment, industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments to measure the trough of the business cycle.

You mean the incredibly crappy part-time 15-20 hours p/w jobs that pay $10 p/h that are the MAJORITY of jobs being created right now that go NOWHERE?! Or the 12+ MILLION jobs lost since 2008 that FAR outweigh the jobs created since then?! ROTF!

Schiff wants to use a Big Mac to measure inflation. He says the true rate of inflation since 2004 is 6.1%/year. If that's true, then the economy has been in recession for 9 years and spending in FY 2012 is lower than in FY 2003 after adjusting for inflation.

From 1986 to 2003 the U.S. BMI rose roughly in line with the CPI. Although the burger occasionally rose faster or slower, over that 17 year period both indexes increased by about 68% (or about 4% per year). But from April 2003 to January 2013 the CPI Index is up just 25% percent (from 183.8 to 230.28 or about 2.5% per year) while the BMI is up 61% (from $2.71 to $4.37 or about 6.1% per year), or more than twice the rate of inflation.

Use Schiff's inflation number to calculate real GDP and real GDP growth and you get an absurd result. The economy was growing at a mere .3% in 2004 and 2005, at the peak of the housing bubble. The economy has been in recession since 2006. The 2012 economy is 18% smaller than the 2003 economy once adjusting for inflation.

Nominal GDP 2003: 11,142.2
Nominal GDP 2012: 15,684.8

(11,142.2) x (1.061)^9 = 18,984.6

15,684.8/18,984.6 = 0.826

GDP - 6.1, % Chg. from Yr. Ago - 6.1, Annual, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=j7w
2004-01-01 0.28204%
2005-01-01 0.39355%
2006-01-01 -0.12519%
2007-01-01 -1.22977%
2008-01-01 -4.22598%
2009-01-01 -8.32438%
2010-01-01 -2.34151%
2011-01-01 -2.12177%
2012-01-01 -2.05972%
2013-01-01 -2.060195

Here is growth in federal spending adjusting for inflation using schiff's inflation number. Once taking Schiff's inflation number into account, spending in FY 2012 was 140 billion lower than in FY 2003.

You mean YOU get an absurd result. And that's because since this is you, many of the figures you're quoting are BS SPINS. Also, do you actually think it's not possible for the CPI or BMI to be ARTIFICIALLY manipulated as well?!

We've seen huge cuts in spending under Obama.

Federal spending:
FY 2003: 2,159,246
FY 2012: 3,538,446

2.159 x (1.061)^9 = 3.6786722602

FGEXPND - 6.1, % Chg. from Yr. Ago - 6.1, Annual, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=j7x
2004-01-01 -0.26759%
2005-01-01 1.40815%
2006-01-01 -0.06837%
2007-01-01 0.19330%
2008-01-01 1.33793%
2009-01-01 4.81889%
2010-01-01 1.06167%
2011-01-01 -4.65268%
2012-01-01 -6.08137%
2013-01-01 -8.32038%

How does the above show that Federal Spending has decreased?! It shows it has INCREASED, moron. Oh...and btw...

US National Debt, as of May 2013:

16.8 TRILLION

US National Debt, as of Jan. 2009:

10.6 TRILLION

Mandatory Reading:
http://www.hyperinflation-us.com/

Mandatory Reading: