But that doesn’t mean the cause is hopeless. In fact, I have five reasons why the Broncos can win. But they really need all five of these things to occur to go from a 13-point underdog to a victor on Saturday.
1. The Running Game
The Broncos own the best running game in the NFL. We all know about the Patriots atrocious pass defense, but they have an almost equally horrid run defense. We saw that firsthand, as the Broncos had a record-setting first quarter against the Pats at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on Dec. 18., racking up 166 yards in the opening quarter. Willis McGahee was having his way with New England, where he rushed for 59 yards before he left the game with a leg issue. He returned briefly in the third quarter, but the Broncos were down double-digits at that point, and he only gained another 11 yards. Running back Lance Ball picked up the slack for McGahee, adding another 64 yards and a rushing touchdown. The team’s third running back, Jeremiah Johnson, tossed in another 25 yards, and quarterback Tim Tebow led all rushers in the game with 93 yards and two scores. If the Broncos can protect the ball, and stick with what’s worked for them, they can run all over the Patriots.
2. Turnover Battle
In their meeting a month ago, the Broncos turned the ball over three times in the second quarter. That led directly to 13 points. Rarely can you lose the turnover battle and win the game; against the Patriots, it’s darn near impossible. Since 2000, the Pats are 106-4 when they win the turnover battle. Thus, Denver cannot put the ball on the ground or throw it to the other team, which is no easy task because the Pats are third in the league in takeaways. Also, the Broncos have to force a takeaway or two of their own. In New England’s three regular season losses, Tom Brady had seven turnovers. So, it’s imperative that the Broncos get to Brady, and force him to give the ball up a time or two.
3. The Pass Rush
Arguably, the biggest strength of the Broncos defense this season has been the pass rush. Denver finished 10th in the NFL in sacks, but at one point they were ranked as high as fifth. That number was in large part to the simultaneous health of their primary pass rushers. Von Miller came out like gangbusters with 11.5 sacks in the first 12 games he played, but struggled down the stretch because of his thumb injury. Elvis Dumervil started slow and was hobbled by a high ankle sprain (which may be bothering him again), but registered at least a half a sack in eight of the team’s last nine games. The Broncos defense sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times on Sunday, with a pair of those coming from defensive end Robert Ayers, who had never posted a multi-sack game in his career; in fact, in three years since being drafted 18th overall in 2009, Ayers only totaled 4.5 sacks. The first time around, the Broncos barely touched Brady; Elvis smacked him once and Von got to him after a botched QB-center exchange, but it was counted as a tackle for loss. However, the pass rushers looked inspired on Sunday. Miller seemed to have his burst and aggressiveness back and Elvis seemed to be near Big Ben on nearly every pass attempt. If you mix in the myriad of blitzes defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will dial up from the linebackers and secondary, the Broncos could make Brady’s day much longer than he’d like.
4. Pass Coverage
Champ Bailey said again this week that a consistent pass rush really is the key to good pass coverage. We’ve certainly seen the opposite of that, such as last season when the Broncos had no pass rush with Elvis out for the season and the defensive backs were asked to cover for five or more seconds. This season, the pass rush has helped everyone, and if it’s there, as I believe it will be on Saturday, I think the Broncos have a much better shot against the Pats. Also, Champ said (and we all saw this), “We need to cover better.” New England tight end Aaron Hernandez ran wild against the Broncos last time around, and even though they kept wide out Wes Welker and Hernandez’ counterpart, Rob Gronkowski, in relative check, Brady was able to do what he wanted with the ball. Early in that game, safety Brian Dawkins went down, and it was obvious how bad the Broncos defensive communication suffered when he left. In the last three games without B-Dawk, Champ Bailey and the rest of the secondary have all made a concerted effort to be more vocal; it should help alleviate some of the reasons Brady had open targets all day. While this is just my speculation, I think you’ll see the Broncos in dime coverage (which means six DBs) with rookie Chris Harris on Welker again, bracketed coverage on Gronk, Bailey following Hernandez, and cornerback Andre Goodman covering wide outs Deion Branch or Chad OchoCinco.
5. Tim Tebow
I would be remiss without mentioning the Broncos starting QB. Tebow Time was in full effect on Sunday, and there’s no reason to think it doesn’t carry over. The 316 pass yards surprised me, but I’ve been around Tebow enough to see how he handles things, and to see how well he plays when his confidence is high. As I mentioned, Timmy nearly rushed for 100 yards a month ago, and threw for just under 200. Again, if Timmy & Co. can protect the ball, run to set up the pass, and pass with anywhere near the success they had on Sunday against the Steelers, Bill Belichick and his cronies could be in for as long a day as fellow defensive mastermind Dick Lebeau endured. I think Tebow’s intangibles absolutely do matter in the playoffs. He needs to play with the same aggression that he played with Sunday, and the rest should take care of itself.
While I’m not ready to guarantee a Broncos victory, I do think the Patriots and their fans are overlooking this team. New England has lost their last three playoff games and the last time they overlooked a team like this, they lost in the Super Bowl after going 18-0. As we’ve seen throughout history, the football is shaped funny and has been known to take funny bounces. And you know what? This Saturday, I just have a sneaking suspicion, just like I did on Sunday, that it may take just enough funny bounces for the Broncos to escape with a win!
McGahee's done nuthin'.