With minor offensive improvements, Tebow can lead the Broncos back to the playoffs
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Early in Super Bowl XI, the Oakland Raiders drove down to the Minnesota Vikings' 7-yard line but stalled there and ended up kicking a 24-yard field goal.
Raiders head coach John Madden was none too happy about the end of the drive. As he noted in, "Hey, Wait A Minute, I Wrote a Book!" Madden told his team, "You got to get the ball in the end zone, you got to get six points, not three."
Quarterback Ken Stabler put his arm around Madden and, knowing just how well the offense was playing, told him, "Don't worry, John, there's plenty more where that came from." Stabler was spot on in his assessment, as the Raiders went on to rout the Vikings 32-14.
That sentiment is exactly the type of feeling that Tim Tebow backers should have about his future prospects.
It might seem hard to fathom such a line of thinking after Tebow's Denver Broncos were on the wrong end of a 45-10 AFC divisional playoff game thrashing against the New England Patriots -- partially because he went 9-for-26 for 136 yards -- but the truth is that a game tape and metric review of Denver's 2011 season indicates Tebow has an extraordinary amount of reachable potential.
It all begins by recognizing that the Broncos can continue to use the blueprint that got them to this point in the first place: run the ball, throw deep as often as possible and learn to live with Tebow's mistakes (a potential path for success that was noted right after Tebow took over as the starter).
That offensive design worked to the tune of 322.5 yards per game in the 11 regular-season contests Tebow started. That total is only 24.3 yards per game below the league average and is only 54.1 yards per game short of placing in the top 10.
The big reason for this showing is a Denver rushing attack that averaged more rushing yards per game (164.5) than any other team and ranked sixth in the league in rushing yards per attempt (4..
That means the increased yardage will likely have to occur in the passing game, but that should be quite attainable given the issues that held the passing game back this year.
Injuries prevented wide receiver Demaryius Thomas from getting into a game until Week 7. Thomas has an incredible amount of talent (Scouts Inc. gave him a 92 rating in its 2010 draft profile) but rehabbing a multitude of physical ailments (broken foot, sprained ankle, concussion, torn Achilles and fractured finger) has slowed the refinement of his route running skills.
It didn't stop him from posting one of the most memorable receptions in NFL playoff history, but if he gets a full offseason worth of work in, there is no telling how good Thomas could be.
Denver could also benefit from substantial improvements out of its other pass-catchers. Holding on to catchable passes would be a great place to begin. According to ESPN's Stats and Info, the Broncos had a 6.6 percent drop rate on on-target passes, highest in the league.
In addition, it should be noted that Eric Decker and Eddie Royal tallied 6.7 and 3.2 yards per attempt (YPA), respectively, on passes thrown by Tebow this year. Decker's total is below average for a wideout and Royal's number is positively abysmal, so upgrading the talent level here should offer an immediate bottom line improvement.
The odds of getting that upgrade are greatly helped by the depth of wide receiver talent that can be found in this year's NFL draft and free-agency crops. The draft has as many as four potential first-round wide receiver prospects and six or seven pass-catchers with second-round potential.
Free agency is also a more than viable avenue since this year's wide receiving crop could include Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson and Mario Manningham, along with a deep group of solid veteran prospects.
Denver's tight end productivity was strong under Tebow (16-for-21 for 244 yards, 11.6 YPA), but it could also benefit from the development of 2011 draft picks Julius Thomas and Virgil Green (four combined receptions for a total of 29 yards this season).
The aforementioned production numbers also occurred in a campaign that included a lockout-truncated offseason, a new Denver coaching staff and Tebow's taking over as quarterback about one-third of the way through the season.
It took time to get him acclimated as the starter and to get the coaching staff to figure out what would work best with him under center, and yet this offense still was only a medium-sized jump away from being quite productive.
It is also worth noting that Tebow's production was offset by a 2.2 percent interception rate that tied for the ninth lowest in the league.
Tebow's low interception total was not a matter of luck, either, as he posted a superb 1.5 percent bad decision rate (BDR). To put that number into perspective, a 2 percent BDR is considered the mark of excellence for a vertical passer, and Tebow was well below that level. It is a major reason the Denver offense was able to overcome the significant volume of hurdles it faced this year.
The knee jerk reaction is to think of the Broncos' 2011 season as an amazing one-year confluence of events, but don't sell Tebow and company short.
If Denver's front office handles the 2012 offseason well, we might not look back on this season as one for the ages, but instead see it as the beginning of a highly successful NFL career for Tebow.
Pimp_From_The_Grave wrote:
Free agency is also a more than viable avenue since this year's wide receiving crop could include Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson and Mario Manningham, along with a deep group of solid veteran prospects.
Next year teams will do what New England did last week. They will load up on the outside of the line to seal off the ends and keep Tebow in the pocket and then play zone behind that. Tebow can't make the reads quickly enough before his protection breaks down and unless a receiver is left wide open he won't be accurate enough to be effective.
Tim Tebow is a one year wonder and a crappier version of Tim Tebow. The Broncos will not win the division with Tim Tebow next year. End of story.
LouDoo wrote:Neon has to be the most active poster who actually contributes the least, despite all the threads he starts. He has no redeeming value. He's completely useless.
I think that the biggest stride Tebow needs to make is seeing and hitting the underneath stuff. I don't think Tebow checked down all year. Tom Brady probably checks down on 50% of his throws - that leads to high completion percentage, and moves the chains. Tebow, on the other hand, looks deep. If it isn't there, he runs around and keeps looking deep, or takes off running.
I'm fine with the throwing motion...I don't think it will ever be NFL caliber. Other QB's have succeeded with goofy throwing motions too...Kosar and Rivers come to mind. Tebow can be as slow and loopy and still have success if he can become more consistent (which I think is footwork related) and if he does a better job with progressions and finds the check-downs. Those two things can get his comp % over 60%, and would make this offense really, really good.
Pimp_From_The_Grave wrote:Here's an interesting Tebow stat: Tied for 3rd in the league in yards per completion. Tied with Eli, just behind Schaub and Palmer.
I think that the biggest stride Tebow needs to make is seeing and hitting the underneath stuff. I don't think Tebow checked down all year. Tom Brady probably checks down on 50% of his throws - that leads to high completion percentage, and moves the chains. Tebow, on the other hand, looks deep. If it isn't there, he runs around and keeps looking deep, or takes off running.
I'm fine with the throwing motion...I don't think it will ever be NFL caliber. Other QB's have succeeded with goofy throwing motions too...Kosar and Rivers come to mind. Tebow can be as slow and loopy and still have success if he can become more consistent (which I think is footwork related) and if he does a better job with progressions and finds the check-downs. Those two things can get his comp % over 60%, and would make this offense really, really good.
Funny you mention Kosar. I'm a Browns fan and in Ohio the guy still walks one water. But look at his career. He was only an NFL starter for about 7 years. Bill Belichick caught a lot of shit for cutting him, but looking back, Vinny Testaverde was clearly the better QB by 1993. Kosar lasted two more seasons as a back up. Testaverde was still starting in his mid 40's. Sorry for the threadjack. Just don't see Bernie Kosar brought up on sludge very often. And yes, Bernie was painfully ugly to watch! lol
LouDoo wrote:Neon has to be the most active poster who actually contributes the least, despite all the threads he starts. He has no redeeming value. He's completely useless.
Some good analysis from Troy Brown regarding Tebow: "If the Denver receivers don't have 5 yards of separation Tebow can't hit them. He knows he can't make the throw so he looks elsewhere. A quarterback has to be able to make throws into tight spaces to be successful in the National Football League. Until Tebow is able to do that he will not lead his team to a championship.
Interesting stat: Tebow's numbers over his last 5 starts were worse than Orton's for the 5 starts he had in Denver.
SkyDog112046 wrote:Some good analysis from Troy Brown regarding Tebow: "If the Denver receivers don't have 5 yards of separation Tebow can't hit them. He knows he can't make the throw so he looks elsewhere. A quarterback has to be able to make throws into tight spaces to be successful in the National Football League. Until Tebow is able to do that he will not lead his team to a championship.
Interesting stat: Tebow's numbers over his last 5 starts were worse than Orton's for the 5 starts he had in Denver.
Skydog, what are the odds the Jax Jags trade for Tebow? That is a team desperate to sell tickets and that is a city that loves Teblow.
LouDoo wrote:Neon has to be the most active poster who actually contributes the least, despite all the threads he starts. He has no redeeming value. He's completely useless.
SkyDog112046 wrote:Some good analysis from Troy Brown regarding Tebow: "If the Denver receivers don't have 5 yards of separation Tebow can't hit them. He knows he can't make the throw so he looks elsewhere. A quarterback has to be able to make throws into tight spaces to be successful in the National Football League. Until Tebow is able to do that he will not lead his team to a championship.
Interesting stat: Tebow's numbers over his last 5 starts were worse than Orton's for the 5 starts he had in Denver.
Skydog, what are the odds the Jax Jags trade for Tebow? That is a team desperate to sell tickets and that is a city that loves Teblow.
I don't see why they would do that. Competing for championships and winning them is what sells tickets long term. Tebow might sell some tickets for a few years but fans will get bored with 8 or 9 win seasons pretty quickly. The formula for success is to be bad enough to get a franchise QB, groom him behind a veteran for a year or so if he needs time, and then start building around him. Tebow isn't a franchise QB. Tebow is the NFL version of Dale Earnhart Jr. Popular and able to sell merchandise but he isn't going to win anything.
If Denver decides to build an option team to play Tebow ball, they could, and probably will, set themselves back a decade. If they decide to try and move forward with Tebow in a more traditional role, they probably won't win anything. I'd hate to be in Elway's shoes right now.
LAglamrocker wrote:Tebows first 2/3 of a season only 2 wins behind the Orton Bronco era
True, but they got most of those wins catching teams off guard with that gimmick offense. The wildcat won a few games initially too. Gimmicks don't work for long.
Tebow will be a successful QB for years to come. Keep in mind, he has NO OFFSEASON at all this past year. Give him an offseason working with coaches, teammates, etc. and let's see what happens. I really wish Denver would trade him, though. The playcalling is atrocious.
michelish wrote:
VH album will be dropping first half of 2019. Album has been completed for a few months. They've been recording on and off since just after last tour.Finalizing title and artwork.
Nitrorulz wrote:
I predict “The Dirt” will do double that.
SkyDog112046 wrote: A quarterback has to be able to make throws into tight spaces to be successful in the National Football League. Until Tebow is able to do that he will not lead his team to a championship.
Being a Bears fan we never had anyone like that until Cutler arrived. Having never had a decent QB until he came here I never appreciated that skill. Because I had never seen it before.
bigbuttskinner wrote:Tebow will be a successful QB for years to come. Keep in mind, he has NO OFFSEASON at all this past year. Give him an offseason working with coaches, teammates, etc. and let's see what happens. .
I don't really see it. He's had his whole life to learn how to throw. An offseason isn't going to teach him that particular skill. IF he can master it, his upside would be huge, but that's a big if.
Tebows biggest problem, in my mind, isnt his trowing motion or his inability to read the defense that great in the NFL...its his inability to "tune out" all the detractors who say he isnt a good NFL quarterback. Is he a great NFL quarterback at the moment ? Well no, of course he isnt...but how many straight out of college quarterbacks are? You cant go by Cam Newton either...for every Cam there are 3-4 Jamarcus Russells out there...
Give Tebow this off season to work with the coaches, train, and watch film of himself and his offense and I think he can make some needed changes to his game as well as throwing system. He really needs to get him a big shot of confidence and ignore all the naysayers...hell, he has already did more than most people thought he would in his short time in the league.
"Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master." - George Washington
SkyDog112046 wrote: A quarterback has to be able to make throws into tight spaces to be successful in the National Football League. Until Tebow is able to do that he will not lead his team to a championship.
Being a Bears fan we never had anyone like that until Cutler arrived. Having never had a decent QB until he came here I never appreciated that skill. Because I had never seen it before.
meanwhile I'm on the opposite end , I thought as a kid I'd be wathing Marino win championship after championship only to end up seeing his career highlights aside from records being a win over your 85' bears and a fake spike TD throw. Now ever since he retired it's been shit QB after shit QB and dumbfuck front office moves.
As far as Tebow goes, I'm glad the hype is over but I don't dislike the kid or anything, He's got a different skillset than most NFL QB's thats for damn sure, but the only way I see him winning a title if he dosent get way more accurate is if he gets a defense like the 85' bears or 2000 ravens on the other side of the ball. And those just don't come around often.
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, I thought as a kid I'd be wathing Marino win championship after championship only to end up seeing his career highlights aside from records being a win over your 85' bears and a fake spike TD throw. Now ever since he retired it's been shit QB after shit QB and dumbfuck front office moves.