Analysis That Has Predicted Every Pres. Winner Since 1980

[FullMetalWhackit]

An analysis that has predicted correctly the winner of every presidential election since 1980 has been released by the University Of Colorado.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2 ... study-says

Pretty interesting.

[DEATH ROW JOE]

" key is the economy"

Their model is flawed since they are operating under the assumption that voters blame Obama for the weak economy. They still blame Bush. Half Republicans blame Bush. Romney is promising a return to what failed under Bush. Expect to see their streak broken this year.

June 14, 2012
Americans Still Blame Bush More Than Obama for Bad Economy
About half of Republicans blame Bush

http://www.gallup.com/poll/155177/ameri ... onomy.aspx

by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans continue to place more blame for the nation's economic problems on George W. Bush than on Barack Obama, even though Bush left office more than three years ago. The relative economic blame given to Bush versus Obama today is virtually the same as it was last September.



Gallup first asked this "blame assessment" question in July 2009, six months after Obama became president. At that point, 80% of Americans gave Bush a great deal or a moderate amount of blame, compared with 32% who ascribed the same level of blame for the bad economy to Obama. The percentage blaming Bush dropped to about 70% in August 2010, and has stayed roughly in that range since. Meanwhile, about half of Americans have blamed Obama since March 2010, with little substantive change from then to the present.

Americans continue to name the economy as the most important problem facing the country, and in an election that likely will be defined by a struggling economy, the question of who is responsible for it will weigh heavily in voters' minds. Both Obama and presumed Republican nominee Mitt Romney as a result have focused heavily on the economy in their campaigns, the most recent example of which is the major economic speech Obama will deliver Thursday in the key swing state of Ohio. Romney has attempted to place blame for the country's continuing economic struggles squarely on Obama's shoulders. At the same time, the Obama campaign is trying to deflect blame away from the president, in part by assigning blame to his predecessor.

The relative amount of blame Americans give to Obama and to Bush has largely stabilized over the last two years. It remains to be seen whether Americans are open to further discussion of those issues in the months remaining before the Nov. 6 election, or whether their minds are made up.

Half of Republicans Blame Bush

Republicans and Democrats distribute economic blame in different ways, as was the case last September. Democrats follow what might be described as a fairly traditional pattern: 90% blame Bush, in contrast to 19% who blame Obama.

Republicans, however, are more ecumenical in their blame, with 83% blaming Obama a great deal or moderate amount and 49% ascribing the same level of blame to Bush. Republicans, in short, are significantly more willing to blame their most recent Republican president than are Democrats willing to blame Obama.



ndependents are substantially more likely to blame Bush (67%) than to blame Obama (51%) for the nation's economic problems, a finding that no doubt provides some comfort to the Obama re-election campaign. And fewer independents blame Obama now than did so last September (60%).

Implications

Although the Obama campaign would like to make this election less of a referendum on Obama's performance and more of a choice between two candidates, it is clear that any incumbent's stewardship of the economy is a key factor in his re-election chances. Americans continue to have more negative than positive views of the current economy and the direction in which it is headed, which generally does not bode well for Obama.

Still, 68% of Americans say former President Bush should be given a great deal or a moderate amount of blame for the nation's economic woes -- substantially more than say the same about Obama. This suggests that Obama's argument that he is on the right track and needs more time to turn the economy around could fall on receptive ears, particularly those of independents.

[FullMetalWhackit]

You're amazing. Truly with the rapid response with the charts and graphs. And I mean that in the most positive of ways.

[brotherplanet]

Absolutely! Bush did a wonderful job of fucking things up and Obama has done a wonderful job of doing nothing.

[KneelandBobDylan]

Absolutely! Bush did a wonderful job of fucking things up and Obama has done a wonderful job of doing nothing.

Obstructionist house, and before that, blue dog "they may as well been republican" democrats, but never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

[FullMetalWhackit]

If Obama were to be re-elected, what are the chances he gets democratic control of both houses plus zero "blue dog" democrats for his next term?

[KneelandBobDylan]

If Obama were to be re-elected, what are the chances he gets democratic control of both houses plus zero "blue dog" democrats for his next term?

Well thanks to Akin the chance is good, and since most blue dogs lost to people futher to the right in 2010, they will/would be much less of a problem.

[brotherplanet]

Absolutely! Bush did a wonderful job of fucking things up and Obama has done a wonderful job of doing nothing.

Obstructionist house, and before that, blue dog "they may as well been republican" democrats, but never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

Sounds like what conservatives call a RINO... Republican In Name Only when they don't vote for the extreme.

[Moggio]

Absolutely! Bush did a wonderful job of fucking things up and Obama has done a wonderful job of doing nothing.

BINGO!

AND Obamney will perpetuate that tradition.

[Danzig in the Dark]

Absolutely! Bush did a wonderful job of fucking things up and Obama has done a wonderful job of doing nothing.

BINGO!

AND Obamney will perpetuate that tradition.

What exactly would Ron Paul do?

[Turner Coates]

[Moggio]

Absolutely! Bush did a wonderful job of fucking things up and Obama has done a wonderful job of doing nothing.

BINGO!

AND Obamney will perpetuate that tradition.

What exactly would Ron Paul do?

I've ALREADY told you, moron. Do you know how to read?

[Turner Coates]

I've ALREADY told you, moron. Do you know how to read?

In the words of a bad actor, liar and cowboy politician, "There you go again".
You'll never win anybody over by being insulting to them in the course of political discussion. You're your own cause's worst enemy. You just don't get it, do you?

[Moggio]

I've ALREADY told you, moron. Do you know how to read?

In the words of a bad actor, liar and cowboy politician, "There you go again".
You'll never win anybody over by being insulting to them in the course of political discussion. You're your own cause's worst enemy. You just don't get it, do you?

Wtf are you talking about? Have you read this board? He DESERVED to be insulted. I've EXPLICITLY detailed MANY times why Ron Paul would be the best choice for President...

[Turner Coates]

I've ALREADY told you, moron. Do you know how to read?

In the words of a bad actor, liar and cowboy politician, "There you go again".
You'll never win anybody over by being insulting to them in the course of political discussion. You're your own cause's worst enemy. You just don't get it, do you?

Wtf are you talking about? Have you read this board? He DESERVED to be insulted. Also, I've EXPLICITLY detailed why Ron Paul would be the best choice for President MANY times now...

You're a raving lunatic.

[Danzig in the Dark]

AND Obamney will perpetuate that tradition.

What exactly would Ron Paul do?

I've ALREADY told you, moron. Do you know how to read?

You've listed what RP supports. That is not the same as what he can actually accomplish. You haven't given this much thought.

[Moggio]

Wtf are you talking about? Have you read this board? He DESERVED to be insulted. Also, I've EXPLICITLY detailed why Ron Paul would be the best choice for President MANY times now...

You're a raving lunatic.

You're not paying attention.

I've ALREADY told you, moron. Do you know how to read?

You've listed what RP supports. That is not the same as what he can actually accomplish. You haven't given this much thought.

No, I've clearly shown what Ron Paul supports AND what he can accomplish.

[Danzig in the Dark]

I've ALREADY told you, moron. Do you know how to read?

You've listed what RP supports. That is not the same as what he can actually accomplish. You haven't given this much thought.

No, I've clearly shown what Ron Paul supports AND what he can accomplish.

How will he accomplish his goals? He would be president, not Caesar.

[RATTdrools]

I don't want to deal with Romneyhood! Obama isn't perfect but he's clearly the better choice!

[FullMetalWhackit]

I don't want to deal with Romneyhood! Obama isn't perfect but he's clearly the better choice!

You might want to prepare yourself. Im starting to believe Romney will win the 2012 election.

[RATTdrools]

I don't want to deal with Romneyhood! Obama isn't perfect but he's clearly the better choice!

You might want to prepare yourself. Im starting to believe Romney will win the 2012 election.

Don't think so. The Repukes are too extremist!

[Moggio]

No, I've clearly shown what Ron Paul supports AND what he can accomplish.

How will he accomplish his goals?

Yes.

[Turner Coates]

No, I've clearly shown what Ron Paul supports AND what he can accomplish.

How will he accomplish his goals?

Yes.

[Moggio]

[Turner Coates]

Better scroll up and look a little closer.
The question was, "HOW will he accomplish his goals?"
Your answer was, "Yes".

Is that really how Ron Paul will accomplish things?
He's going to "yes"?
Is "yes" a verb up there in Canada?

[Danzig in the Dark]

No, I've clearly shown what Ron Paul supports AND what he can accomplish.

How will he accomplish his goals?

Yes.

There is no point in continuing. You are truly stupid.

[Turner Coates]

OWNED TO OBLIVION!!!!1!

[Stoner]

No, I've clearly shown what Ron Paul supports AND what he can accomplish.

How will he accomplish his goals?

Yes.

[Moggio]

Better scroll up and look a little closer.
The question was, "HOW will he accomplish his goals?"
Your answer was, "Yes".

Is that really how Ron Paul will accomplish things?
He's going to "yes"?
Is "yes" a verb up there in Canada?

No, I've clearly shown what Ron Paul supports AND what he can accomplish.

How will he accomplish his goals?

Yes.

There is no point in continuing. You are truly stupid.

Coming from you, that's pretty rich.

If you dumb-fucks were actually paying attention, Danzing In The Dark's question was an obvious rhetorical response (and don't pretend like it wasn't), after my response that stated, "No, I've clearly shown what Ron Paul supports AND what he can accomplish." Otherwise, I wouldn't have responded to the question with "Yes."

OWNED TO OBLIVION!!!!1!

Nope.

[brotherplanet]

I don't want to deal with Romneyhood! Obama isn't perfect but he's clearly the better choice!

You might want to prepare yourself. Im starting to believe Romney will win the 2012 election.

Don't think so. The Repukes are too extremist!

I think Obama has run his course and deserves to lose. I don't think Romney can possibly be any worse, Hell, he might even be better than Obama, but... He will bow down to the extreme right when it comes time to nominate a new member of the Supreme Court.