Not Looking Good For Obama....
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Not Looking Good For Obama....
A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.
The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.
It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.
Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” explained Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder who developed the prediction model with Michael Berry of University of Colorado-Denver.
“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears,” Berry noted, ”when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent. The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
Bickers said large issues like the economy and the country’s overall direction tend to determine presidential elections. Computerized prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” he said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”
Bickers and Berry cautioned, however, that their model used economic data from June, 2012. They intend to update their calculations when new data become available in September.
And many swing states showed close enough to a 50-50 split that factors other than the economy could tilt them in the opposite direction. Bicker and Berry also did not factor in third party candidates, such as Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson, who Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-affiliated polling firm, has noted could significantly diminish Obama’s chances of winning New Mexico.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/unive ... romney-win
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Their model is useless since no president since 1980 inherited an economy that looked like this:Drunk Kennedy wrote:The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll
Monday, August 27, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows President Obama attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
This is the president’s biggest lead since May.
Last edited by DEATH ROW JOE on Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
not quite as pretty and fancy as all your charts 'n stuff...but far more accurate:
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
LMFAO, you're posting something that was posted last week dunce cap. Talk about having your head in the sand.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Here you go stupid:
Posted Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:00 pm
Analysis That Has Predicted Every Pres. Winner Since 1980
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=275701
Posted Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:00 pm
Analysis That Has Predicted Every Pres. Winner Since 1980
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=275701
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
How's old Ron Paul doing?
"I'm just here for the irony and the dancing."
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
i dont give a fuck when, or how many times it was posted ya knucklehead....the point remains the same.
obama is in a world of hurt. romney has closed a 6 pt gap in less than a month.
with ++ $4 gas and ++ 8% unemployment, and close to 40% of eligible voters saying they are just gonna sit this one out (vast majority are dems), you have to be delusional (as you clearly are) to think the results are gonna favor obama.
but you keep on keepin on with your pretty little graphs.
its gonna be awful quiet around here after november.
obama is in a world of hurt. romney has closed a 6 pt gap in less than a month.
with ++ $4 gas and ++ 8% unemployment, and close to 40% of eligible voters saying they are just gonna sit this one out (vast majority are dems), you have to be delusional (as you clearly are) to think the results are gonna favor obama.
but you keep on keepin on with your pretty little graphs.
its gonna be awful quiet around here after november.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Does that take into account that the latest polls are saying Romney will be getting 0% of the Black vote?
I would also be curious to see numbers on the Latino vote and the women's vote. I don't think he is polling very well with either group.
I would also be curious to see numbers on the Latino vote and the women's vote. I don't think he is polling very well with either group.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Fortunately many voters aren't swayed by political crystal balls and predictions machines and also know that a US president has no control over gas prices.
Bush didn't. Obama doesn't.
Gas prices do not effect my voting for a candidate.
Many with eyes and ears also have watched the Republican party do nothing to try and help the situation by meeting in the middle for over 3-1/2 years with a goal of helping America get back on it's feet and have instead made it their main mission to see that Obama doesn't get a second term.
(Taking into account the Obama administration has failed to move more towards the middle that might sway more from the GOP to do so also..)
Republicans, along with Democrats have held the American people hostage for almost 4 years while they have bickered and kicked like a spoiled 2 year olds who didn't get their way and are more worried about who's name is on the amendment for bragging rights, another term and trying to gain majority control over the brain dead minions in the name of helping America...
Bush didn't. Obama doesn't.
Gas prices do not effect my voting for a candidate.
Many with eyes and ears also have watched the Republican party do nothing to try and help the situation by meeting in the middle for over 3-1/2 years with a goal of helping America get back on it's feet and have instead made it their main mission to see that Obama doesn't get a second term.
(Taking into account the Obama administration has failed to move more towards the middle that might sway more from the GOP to do so also..)
Republicans, along with Democrats have held the American people hostage for almost 4 years while they have bickered and kicked like a spoiled 2 year olds who didn't get their way and are more worried about who's name is on the amendment for bragging rights, another term and trying to gain majority control over the brain dead minions in the name of helping America...
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Obama spent the first 2 years bending over for the Republicans and giving them everything they wanted. He was trying so hard to make them like him he practically alienated his own party. I have not figured out why they didn't like him, he did what ever they wanted.
Like I said in that other thread though, they have ALL gotten out of control. The whole damn system is broken. The fact that a senator or congressman can go to Washington upper middle class and come out wealthy is ridiculous. It is also ridiculous that they get a full pension after only one term WITH healthcare. I believe that if they all want to run around and talk about how fantastic the Founding Fathers were and how much we need to be like them then we should go back to how it REALLY was then and make Congress their part time job.
Like I said in that other thread though, they have ALL gotten out of control. The whole damn system is broken. The fact that a senator or congressman can go to Washington upper middle class and come out wealthy is ridiculous. It is also ridiculous that they get a full pension after only one term WITH healthcare. I believe that if they all want to run around and talk about how fantastic the Founding Fathers were and how much we need to be like them then we should go back to how it REALLY was then and make Congress their part time job.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
I've never understood why the longest a president may serve is 8 years, but congress and senate have no term limits..
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Because they are the ones who would have to GIVE themselves term limits and lets face it, none of those fuckers are going to vote themselves out of a job. Hell, the only reason the president has a term limit is because FDR was so popular he got voted in 4 times and that scared them after that and the imposed the 2 term limit. They SHOULD have done the same for themselves. Crooked bastards- all of them.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
I support term limits as well, but the political class is staunchly opposed to it. I mean, can you imagine Maxine Waters campaigning on term limits?
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
That was funny. I liked that.MotleyMaiden wrote:Does that take into account that the latest polls are saying Romney will be getting 0% of the Black vote?
No he is not. Republicans never do. The woman vote is keeping Obama afloat. Men prefer Romney.MotleyMaiden wrote:I would also be curious to see numbers on the Latino vote and the women's vote. I don't think he is polling very well with either group.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
LMFAO, more like the white male vote is keeping Romney afloat. If Obama had two white parents, Romney would be down about 10 points right now. The racists are keeping Romney in the race at this stage. That's why he keeps lying about Obama getting rid of the welfare work requirement and cracking "birther" jokes. Most of the ads on his website deal with his lie about welfare's work requirement.FullMetalWhackit wrote:No he is not. Republicans never do. The woman vote is keeping Obama afloat. Men prefer Romney.MotleyMaiden wrote:I would also be curious to see numbers on the Latino vote and the women's vote. I don't think he is polling very well with either group.
Scarborough: Romney welfare ads are "completely false"
Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe today, responding to Mitt Romney's series of TV ads claiming that Barack Obama has gutted welfare reform.
"I've been looking for a week-and-a-half to try to figure out the basis of this welfare reform ad, I've scoured the Wall Street Journal editorial pages, I've scoured.... the ad's completely false. It's just completely false. And I'm pretty stunned."
http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/scarbo ... s-are.html
Numbers on Latino votes:
Romney Combined………………..26
Obama Combined………………...65
http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/56 ... week_1.pdf
From that same poll:
Thinking about the last two administrations, which would you say is MOST responsible for the economic downturn these last few years? Would you say the economic policies of President George W. Bush or President Barack Obama are more to blame?
Bush is to blame ...................................................................... 68
Obama is to blame .................................................................. 14
Both are to blame (VOL) ...................................................... 10
Neither / something else ......................................................... 3
Don’t know ................................................................................ 4
Numbers on Women:
Obama 51%
Romney 41%
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Secti ... _Sched.pdf
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
What's your point? Romney gets little to no support from black men and only 26% of Latinos support him. Put those numbers together with your number and you see that white males are keeping Romney afloat.FullMetalWhackit wrote:Women: Obama +10
Men: Romney +9
With white males, though, Obama trails Romney by 26 points, 60 to 34 percent, in Pew’s survey. In a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday, the spread is 21, 55 to 34 percent.
Pew poll white males:
Romney 60
Obama 34
Quinnipiac poll white males
Romney 55
Obama 34
Want to know why Santorum is speaking at the convention tonight?
Santorum: "I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money."
Santorum: I'll Protect Your Tax Dollars From Black People
http://youtu.be/JgLMghcPDVs
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Fuck! Talk about singling out an entire race on welfare and depicts them as the only people collecting it. That was further proof that anybody can run for President. How fitting that he feels completely comfortable talking like that in a state that hardly has any black people, and how comfortable they are standing next to a candidate that is a walking talking example of ignorance that they applaud his words. That pic also further depicts how many stupid people we have here and how fucked we are compared to the other first world industrialized nations in the near future.DEATH ROW JOE wrote:What's your point? Romney gets little to no support from black men and only 26% of Latinos support him. Put those numbers together with your number and you see that white males are keeping Romney afloat.FullMetalWhackit wrote:Women: Obama +10
Men: Romney +9
With white males, though, Obama trails Romney by 26 points, 60 to 34 percent, in Pew’s survey. In a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday, the spread is 21, 55 to 34 percent.
Pew poll white males:
Romney 60
Obama 34
Quinnipiac poll white males
Romney 55
Obama 34
Want to know why Santorum is speaking at the convention tonight?
Santorum: "I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money."
Santorum: I'll Protect Your Tax Dollars From Black People
http://youtu.be/JgLMghcPDVs
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Interestingly men make up the majority of the remaining undecided vote. No word yet on their skin color.
Last edited by FullMetalWhackit on Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Drunk Kennedy wrote:not quite as pretty and fancy as all your charts 'n stuff...but far more accurate:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
muppet butt wrote:You're an idiot if you think he has the ability to ban me.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
brotherplanet wrote:Drunk Kennedy wrote:not quite as pretty and fancy as all your charts 'n stuff...but far more accurate:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!
Bourbon Cowboy wrote:
ONE NATION UNDER SOCIALISM
Because of Obamination's spending & socialist BS, America and much of the world will endure one of the worst depressions in history in 5...4...3...2...
Because of Obamination's spending & socialist BS, America and much of the world will endure one of the worst depressions in history in 5...4...3...2...
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Clinton started doing the exact same thing after the Republican Revolution. In fact he actually worked really well with Congress when his own party wasn't in charge.MotleyMaiden wrote:Obama spent the first 2 years bending over for the Republicans and giving them everything they wanted. He was trying so hard to make them like him he practically alienated his own party. I have not figured out why they didn't like him, he did what ever they wanted.
Yet, they still hated him. He had a great quote. "They will never forgive me for winning."
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Wheresthestagemanager? wrote:How's old Ron Paul doing?
Better question....
How's the economy doing?
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
It's slowly picking up. Thanks for asking.Dr J Jones wrote:Wheresthestagemanager? wrote:How's old Ron Paul doing?
Better question....
How's the economy doing?
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
That's not good enough Sorry..
I have higher expectations than that.
I have higher expectations than that.
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Can you imagine Maxine Waters having a real job, where civility, intelligence and professionalism is required? She's a fucking idiot, along with a large number of the Congress & Senate.SeminiferousButtNoid wrote:I support term limits as well, but the political class is staunchly opposed to it. I mean, can you imagine Maxine Waters campaigning on term limits?
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Re: Not Looking Good For Obama....
Clarence Thomas and the other justices should adhere to term limits as well. So much pussay, so little time.SeminiferousButtNoid wrote:I support term limits as well, but the political class is staunchly opposed to it. I mean, can you imagine Maxine Waters campaigning on term limits?