Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
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Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
GOP biased Rasmussen has Obama +2 today. See what it looks like a few days after the debate. Maybe Romney can keep his head above water tonight.
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Wednesday, October 03, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll
Intrade:
Barack Obama
70.2%
Today's Change: -3.8
Shares Traded: 1,282,423
Mitt Romney
30.0%
Today's Change: +4.1
Shares Traded: 1,416,560
FiveThrityEight:
Obama 84.7% chance of winning
Romney 15.3%
Other polls:
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama NPR Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7
Florida: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 47, Romney 46 Obama +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 43 Obama +8
General Election: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/WSVN Obama 46, Romney 43 Obama +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Roanoke College Obama 48, Romney 40 Obama +8
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama SurveyUSA Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 53, Romney 42 Obama +11
Missouri: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Romney 48, Obama 45 Romney +3
New Mexico: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, Romney 40 Obama +11
Rhode Island: Romney vs. Obama WPRI/Fleming Obama 57, Romney 33 Obama +24
Maryland: Romney vs. Obama Baltimore Sun Obama 57, Romney 34 Obama +23
General Election: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama ABC News/Wash Post Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Politico/GWU/Battleground Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 48, Romney 44 Obama +4
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 48, Romney 48 Tie
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 46, Romney 50 Romney +4
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama WMUR/UNH Obama 54, Romney 39 Obama +15
New Mexico: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica* Obama 51, Romney 41 Obama +10
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 52, Romney 40 Obama +12
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama WBUR/MassINC Obama 60, Romney 32 Obama +28
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama Des Moines Register Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Columbus Dispatch* Obama 51, Romney 42 Obama +9
Washington: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, Romney 41 Obama +11
Maine: Romney vs. Obama Critical Insights Obama 52, Romney 36 Obama +16
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama Boston Globe Obama 57, Romney 30 Obama +27
General Election: Romney vs. Obama WashTimes/JZ Analytics* Obama 50, Romney 41 Obama +9
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 50, Romney 46 Obama +4
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Morning Call Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7
General Election: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 48, Romney 43 Obama +5
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/WWBT Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Wednesday, October 03, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll
Intrade:
Barack Obama
70.2%
Today's Change: -3.8
Shares Traded: 1,282,423
Mitt Romney
30.0%
Today's Change: +4.1
Shares Traded: 1,416,560
FiveThrityEight:
Obama 84.7% chance of winning
Romney 15.3%
Other polls:
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama NPR Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7
Florida: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 47, Romney 46 Obama +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 43 Obama +8
General Election: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/WSVN Obama 46, Romney 43 Obama +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Roanoke College Obama 48, Romney 40 Obama +8
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama SurveyUSA Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 53, Romney 42 Obama +11
Missouri: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Romney 48, Obama 45 Romney +3
New Mexico: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, Romney 40 Obama +11
Rhode Island: Romney vs. Obama WPRI/Fleming Obama 57, Romney 33 Obama +24
Maryland: Romney vs. Obama Baltimore Sun Obama 57, Romney 34 Obama +23
General Election: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama ABC News/Wash Post Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Politico/GWU/Battleground Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 48, Romney 44 Obama +4
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 48, Romney 48 Tie
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 46, Romney 50 Romney +4
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama WMUR/UNH Obama 54, Romney 39 Obama +15
New Mexico: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica* Obama 51, Romney 41 Obama +10
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 52, Romney 40 Obama +12
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama WBUR/MassINC Obama 60, Romney 32 Obama +28
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama Des Moines Register Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Columbus Dispatch* Obama 51, Romney 42 Obama +9
Washington: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, Romney 41 Obama +11
Maine: Romney vs. Obama Critical Insights Obama 52, Romney 36 Obama +16
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama Boston Globe Obama 57, Romney 30 Obama +27
General Election: Romney vs. Obama WashTimes/JZ Analytics* Obama 50, Romney 41 Obama +9
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 50, Romney 46 Obama +4
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Morning Call Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7
General Election: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 48, Romney 43 Obama +5
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/WWBT Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Looks like Romney failed to keep his head above water with the debate.
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 5 = Obama +2
Friday, October 05, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%.
INTRADE
Barack Obama
70.7%
Today's Change: +4.7
Shares Traded: 1,400,764
Mitt Romney
29.3%
Today's Change: -4.8
Shares Traded: 1,523,915
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 5 = Obama +2
Friday, October 05, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%.
INTRADE
Barack Obama
70.7%
Today's Change: +4.7
Shares Traded: 1,400,764
Mitt Romney
29.3%
Today's Change: -4.8
Shares Traded: 1,523,915
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
You mean the debate wasn't a game-changer?
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Looks like he got a little bump after all, at least according to Rasmussen. Romney is +2 nationally and Florida. See how long it lasts.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll
Mitt Romney now has swung back into the lead in the first post-debate survey of the presidential race in Florida. The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Florida Likely Voters shows Romney with 49% of the vote to Obama’s 47%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... _president
Barack Obama
65.4%
Today's Change: -2.4
Shares Traded: 1,439,920
Mitt Romney
35.0%
Today's Change: +2.9
Shares Traded: 1,558,671
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll
Mitt Romney now has swung back into the lead in the first post-debate survey of the presidential race in Florida. The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Florida Likely Voters shows Romney with 49% of the vote to Obama’s 47%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... _president
Barack Obama
65.4%
Today's Change: -2.4
Shares Traded: 1,439,920
Mitt Romney
35.0%
Today's Change: +2.9
Shares Traded: 1,558,671
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Small bump. Romney now ahead in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. Interesting to see if the vice presidential debate has any effect on the polls one way or the other.


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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
LMFAO, he does not have a lead in any of those states. Nate Silver ran the numbers on all these polls and gives Obama a 57.8% chance of winning Florida. The rest of the states you mentioned aren't even close. Keep dreaming though. Romney now has a 20% chance of winning the election, up from 15% before the debate.FullMetalWhackit wrote:Small bump. Romney now ahead in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. Interesting to see if the vice presidential debate has any effect on the polls one way or the other.
FiveThirtyEight Forecast:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Florida: 57.8% chance of Obama win
Colorado:62.7% chance of Obama win
Ohio: 80.7% chance of Obama win
Virginia: 67.2% chance of Obama win
Oct. 6: Romney Maintains Poll Momentum
By NATE SILVER
Mitt Romney continues to show improved numbers in polls published since the presidential debate in Denver on Wednesday and has now made clear gains in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. The forecast gives him roughly a 20 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from about 15 percent before the debate. Mr. Romney’s gains in the polls have been sharp enough that he should continue to advance in the FiveThirtyEight forecast if he can maintain his numbers over the next couple of days.
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Latest polls from Real Clear Politics:
Saturday, October 06
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 46, Romney 49 Romney +3
Friday, October 05
Florida: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Romney 49, Obama 46 Romney +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 47 Romney +1
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama McLaughlin/ACU (R) Obama 46, Romney 50 Romney +4
Saturday, October 06
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 46, Romney 49 Romney +3
Friday, October 05
Florida: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Romney 49, Obama 46 Romney +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 47 Romney +1
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama McLaughlin/ACU (R) Obama 46, Romney 50 Romney +4


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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Yep, and that doesn't count the undecideds which will vote at least 70% for the challenger. That debate was, indeed, a game changer. Lets get it on.FullMetalWhackit wrote:Latest polls from Real Clear Politics:
Saturday, October 06
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 46, Romney 49 Romney +3
Friday, October 05
Florida: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Romney 49, Obama 46 Romney +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 47 Romney +1
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama McLaughlin/ACU (R) Obama 46, Romney 50 Romney +4
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
What part of "Nate Silver ran the numbers on all these new polls" don't you understand?FullMetalWhackit wrote:Latest polls from Real Clear Politics:
Saturday, October 06
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 46, Romney 49 Romney +3
Friday, October 05
Florida: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Romney 49, Obama 46 Romney +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 46, Romney 47 Romney +1
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama McLaughlin/ACU (R) Obama 46, Romney 50 Romney +4
Romney is leading in a few new polls. He is not leading in those states.
You said Romney was leading in those states. You are wrong. He's nowhere close to leading in Ohio as you claimed.
WeAskAmerica does not have a good reputation. If you are resting your hopes on their results, you're going to be disappointed.
Funny that you left off these new polls. Perhaps Colorado was not up when you made that post but Rasmussen certainly was, it's listed above the We Ask America Ohio poll. Even with their GOP bias, Romney is still behind in Ohio.
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama University of Denver Obama 47, Romney 43 Obama +4
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1
Here's the latest numbers on Florida and Ohio from Nate Silver. He took your polls into consideration and Obama is still leading in these states. The lead in Ohio is nearly insurmountable and Romney can't win without Ohio:
Florida
FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 48.0 46.6 Obama +1.4
Adjusted polling average 48.0 46.8 Obama +1.2
State fundamentals 47.4 47.3 Obama +0.1
Now-cast 48.0 46.9 Obama +1.1
Projected vote share ±4.3 50.1 49.3 Obama +0.8
Chance of winning Obama 58% Romney 42%
Polls 538 WT. Date Dem Rep Margin
We Ask America 10/4 46.0 49.0 Romney +3.0
Rasmussen 10/4 47.0 49.0 Romney +2.0
NBC/Marist 10/1 47.0 46.0 Obama +1.0
Gravis Marketing 9/30 49.0 48.4 Obama +0.6
Suffolk * 9/30 46.0 43.0 Obama +3.0
Ohio
FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 49.1 44.8 Obama +4.3
Adjusted polling average 49.0 44.9 Obama +4.1
State fundamentals 48.7 45.8 Obama +2.9
Now-cast 49.0 45.0 Obama +4.0
Projected vote share ±4.3 51.3 47.6 Obama +3.7
Chance of winning Obama 81% Romney 19%
Polls 538 WT. Date Dem Rep Margin
Wenzel Strategies 10/5 47.3 48.0 Romney +0.7
We Ask America 10/4 46.0 47.0 Romney +1.0
Rasmussen 10/4 50.0 49.0 Obama +1.0
NBC/Marist 10/1 51.0 43.0 Obama +8.0
PPP 9/30 49.0 45.0 Obama +4.0
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
I left out Rasmussen since you don't seem to like them. You're saying how one of the polling firms doesnt have a good reputation, so here are the Rasmussen polls that do, that I had left out for you:
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 49, Obama 47 Romney +2
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 49 Romney +1
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 49, Obama 47 Romney +2
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 49 Romney +1
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1


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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
You're embarrassing yourself.FullMetalWhackit wrote:I left out Rasmussen since you don't seem to like them. You're saying how one of the polling firms doesnt have a good reputation, so here are the Rasmussen polls that do, that I had left out for you:
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 49, Obama 47 Romney +2
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 49 Romney +1
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1
I already posted two of those polls, Ohio and the general. Pretending you ignored the Ohio poll because I don't like Rasmussen is pretty silly considering the title of the thread. You ignored Ohio because it contradicted your claim that Romney was leading in Ohio, a state he needs to win.
If you want to talk about Virginia, here you go. Obama currently has a 67% chance of winning Virginia according to Nate Silver:
Virginia
FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 47.8 45.2 Obama +2.6
Adjusted polling average 47.5 45.7 Obama +1.8
State fundamentals 49.0 45.5 Obama +3.5
Now-cast 47.6 45.7 Obama +1.9
Projected vote share ±4.0 50.4 48.6 Obama +1.8
Chance of winning 67% 33%
Polls 538 WT. Date Dem Rep Margin
We Ask America 10/4 45.0 48.0 Romney +3.0
Rasmussen 10/4 48.0 49.0 Romney +1.0
NBC/Marist 10/1 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0
Roanoke College 9/28 47.0 39.0 Obama +8.0
American Research Group 9/27 49.0 47.0 Obama +2.0
The gamblers on Intrade give Obama 57% chance to win Virginia.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contr ... tId=745846
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Is this a polling war?
Bottom line is that this is now a very close race, much closer than it was before the debate. You like to look at averages over time, I prefer the latest most current polling. In the end, we will see which way proves more accurate. I think the latest most current info wins every time. Averages that include polls taken weeks ago when the dynamics were different mean nothing to me.

Bottom line is that this is now a very close race, much closer than it was before the debate. You like to look at averages over time, I prefer the latest most current polling. In the end, we will see which way proves more accurate. I think the latest most current info wins every time. Averages that include polls taken weeks ago when the dynamics were different mean nothing to me.


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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Rasmussen daily tracking now showing a tie after showing Romney +2 for two days.
Rasmussen Tracking 10/5 - 10/7 1500 LV 3.0 48 48 Tie
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Monday, October 08, 2012
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide.
Rasmussen Tracking 10/5 - 10/7 1500 LV 3.0 48 48 Tie
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Monday, October 08, 2012
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide.
Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
tylamonroe wrote: Yep, and that doesn't count the undecideds which will vote at least 70% for the challenger.
That's an interesting stat that you just apparently pulled out of your ass.
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Don't know where he got that number but he may not be far off considering this analysis of undecided voters done this year by real clear politics. Fascinating read:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 13883.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 13883.html


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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
An Obama victory would be a historical one as the polls stand today if this analysis is correct:
"But given the historical fact that the final results are almost always worse for the president and almost never better, we really need to focus on the Obama vote share rather than his lead or lack of one against Romney. If Obama is, indeed, getting 44 percent of the vote, he is likely facing, at least, an 11-point loss. If he is getting 47 percent of the vote, he is looking, at least, at a 6-point defeat. (Given the fact that six of the eight incumbent presidents not only lost the undecided, but finished lower than the pre-election survey predicted, it would be more likely that Obama’s margin of defeat would be greater than even these numbers suggest.)
There are other indications of a Republican landslide in the
offing. Party identification has moved a net of eight points
toward the GOP since the last election."
"But given the historical fact that the final results are almost always worse for the president and almost never better, we really need to focus on the Obama vote share rather than his lead or lack of one against Romney. If Obama is, indeed, getting 44 percent of the vote, he is likely facing, at least, an 11-point loss. If he is getting 47 percent of the vote, he is looking, at least, at a 6-point defeat. (Given the fact that six of the eight incumbent presidents not only lost the undecided, but finished lower than the pre-election survey predicted, it would be more likely that Obama’s margin of defeat would be greater than even these numbers suggest.)
There are other indications of a Republican landslide in the
offing. Party identification has moved a net of eight points
toward the GOP since the last election."


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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
LMFAO, Dick Morris is not correct. That analysis is a joke. Fox News has been selling a 1980 style blowout in 2011 since Nov 2008.FullMetalWhackit wrote:An Obama victory would be a historical one as the polls stand today if this analysis is correct:
Undecided Lean to Insurgent
By Dick Morris - April 18, 2012
Current 538 forecast which includes the Pew poll showing Romney +4 in the general:
Obama 302.8 electoral votes (50.8% popular vote)
Romney 235.2 electoral votes (48.3% popular vote)
Amid Volatile Polling, Keep an Eye on Election Fundamentals
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Mr. Romney’s bounce seemed to be receding some. Tracking polls released on Monday by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports actually showed a shift back toward Mr. Obama, although another poll by Pew Research showed Mr. Romney with a four-point lead among likely voters.
Polling data is often very noisy, and not all polls use equally rigorous methodology. But the polls, as a whole, remain consistent with the idea that they may end up settling where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama ahead by about two points. Such an outcome would be in line with what history and the fundamentals of the economy would lead you to expect.
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Didn't notice it was a Dick Morris analysis. He surely has a bias against his old party. We will see how the undecided vote goes. The question is whether the election results he provided were accurate historically. If they are correct, it's trouble for the incumbent.


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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
That's cute. You nicknamed my ass google. Kinda wierd but I'll take it as compliment I guess.tin00can wrote:tylamonroe wrote: Yep, and that doesn't count the undecideds which will vote at least 70% for the challenger.
That's an interesting stat that you just apparently pulled out of your ass.
Plug this in my ass, er my google.
"percentage of undecided that vote for the challenger"
The first three articles you get will tell you its actually in the 80% range. The 70% is what I've heard countless political wonks throw out over the last 3 months.
Think of it this way, the POTUS has had 4 years to make his case. If you were married 4 years and someone asked you if you thought you would be married next year and you answered "undecided" how secure would you think your marriage was?
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
tylamonroe wrote:Plug this in my ass, er my google.
"percentage of undecided that vote for the challenger"

Nate Silver factors any tendency of undecideds to lean towards the challenger when crunching his numbers. As of today, Romney's chance of winning is 25%.tylamonroe wrote: The first three articles you get will tell you its actually in the 80% range. The 70% is what I've heard countless political wonks throw out over the last 3 months.
Obama must have made his case since there are few undecided voters this year and he's favored to win.tylamonroe wrote: Think of it this way, the POTUS has had 4 years to make his case. If you were married 4 years and someone asked you if you thought you would be married next year and you answered "undecided" how secure would you think your marriage was?
The Statistical State of the Presidential Race
September 24, 2012, 10:16 am
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... tial-race/
Next, and related, there are few undecided voters this year. On average among national polls, about 7 percent of voters either say they are undecided, or that they will vote for a third-party candidate — the same percentage as in 2004, when voters committed early to Mr. Bush or Mr. Kerry. The figures are slightly lower than at a comparable point in 2008, and considerably lower than in 2000.
Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htmtylamonroe wrote:That's cute. You nicknamed my ass google. Kinda wierd but I'll take it as compliment I guess.tin00can wrote:tylamonroe wrote: Yep, and that doesn't count the undecideds which will vote at least 70% for the challenger.
That's an interesting stat that you just apparently pulled out of your ass.
Plug this in my ass, er my google.
"percentage of undecided that vote for the challenger"
The first three articles you get will tell you its actually in the 80% range. The 70% is what I've heard countless political wonks throw out over the last 3 months.
Think of it this way, the POTUS has had 4 years to make his case. If you were married 4 years and someone asked you if you thought you would be married next year and you answered "undecided" how secure would you think your marriage was?
"They are predominantly from statewide races, with a few U.S. House, mayoral and countywide contests thrown in. Most are from the 1986 and 1988 elections, although a few stretch back to the 1970s."
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 13883.html
That one, however, backs up your claim. I was just wondering where you got it from since there were no links provided.
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
One week after the debate:
Thursday, October 11
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Romney 48, Obama 47 Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. Obama IBD/TIPP Tracking Romney 47, Obama 46 Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Romney 47, Obama 48 Obama +1
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 47 Obama +1
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 45 Obama +6
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 45, Romney 46 Romney +1
Florida: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Romney 47, Obama 48 Obama +1
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Romney 48, Obama 47 Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 51, Romney 46 Obama +5
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 51, Obama 48 Romney +3
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/KSNV Obama 47, Romney 45 Obama +2
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Detroit News Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Philadelphia Inquirer Obama 50, Romney 42 Obama +8
New Jersey: Romney vs. Obama Philadelphia Inquirer Obama 51, Romney 40 Obama +11
California: Romney vs. Obama SurveyUSA Obama 53, Romney 39 Obama +14
Intrade:
Barack Obama
62.8%
Today's Change: +0.9
Shares Traded: 1,611,337
Mitt Romney
36.8%
Today's Change: -0.7
Shares Traded: 1,678,395
Vegas betting lines: Obama has 2-in-3 chance of winning.
US Presidential Election Winner Betting Odds
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/pol ... ion/winner
Polling aggregation sites electoral vote forecasts:

Thursday, October 11
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Romney 48, Obama 47 Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. Obama IBD/TIPP Tracking Romney 47, Obama 46 Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Romney 47, Obama 48 Obama +1
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 48, Romney 47 Obama +1
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 45 Obama +6
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 45, Romney 46 Romney +1
Florida: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Romney 47, Obama 48 Obama +1
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Romney 48, Obama 47 Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 51, Romney 46 Obama +5
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 51, Obama 48 Romney +3
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/KSNV Obama 47, Romney 45 Obama +2
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Detroit News Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Philadelphia Inquirer Obama 50, Romney 42 Obama +8
New Jersey: Romney vs. Obama Philadelphia Inquirer Obama 51, Romney 40 Obama +11
California: Romney vs. Obama SurveyUSA Obama 53, Romney 39 Obama +14
Intrade:
Barack Obama
62.8%
Today's Change: +0.9
Shares Traded: 1,611,337
Mitt Romney
36.8%
Today's Change: -0.7
Shares Traded: 1,678,395
Vegas betting lines: Obama has 2-in-3 chance of winning.
US Presidential Election Winner Betting Odds
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/pol ... ion/winner
Polling aggregation sites electoral vote forecasts:

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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
DEATH ROW JOE wrote:General Election: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/WSVN Obama 46, Romney 43 Obama +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Roanoke College Obama 48, Romney 40 Obama +8
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama SurveyUSA Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 53, Romney 42 Obama +11[/color]
Missouri: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Romney 48, Obama 45 Romney +3
New Mexico: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, Romney 40 Obama +11
Rhode Island: Romney vs. Obama WPRI/Fleming Obama 57, Romney 33 Obama +24
Maryland: Romney vs. Obama Baltimore Sun Obama 57, Romney 34 Obama +23
General Election: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama ABC News/Wash Post Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Politico/GWU/Battleground Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 48, Romney 44 Obama +4
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 48, Romney 48 Tie
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 46, Romney 50 Romney +4
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama WMUR/UNH Obama 54, Romney 39 Obama +15
New Mexico: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica* Obama 51, Romney 41 Obama +10
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 52, Romney 40 Obama +12
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama WBUR/MassINC Obama 60, Romney 32 Obama +28
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama Des Moines Register Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Columbus Dispatch* Obama 51, Romney 42 Obama +9
Washington: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, Romney 41 Obama +11
Maine: Romney vs. Obama Critical Insights Obama 52, Romney 36 Obama +16
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama Boston Globe Obama 57, Romney 30 Obama +27
General Election: Romney vs. Obama WashTimes/JZ Analytics* Obama 50, Romney 41 Obama +9
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 50, Romney 46 Obama +4
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Morning Call Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7
General Election: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 48, Romney 43 Obama +5
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/WWBT Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2[/b]
Romney for the win by 5+ points!!!
Trust me, Im the brain!
SebastianLeeDanzig wrote:He watched me bang her, trying to cock-block by howling and being a bitch in every dog-possible way. As soon as we switched to "doggy-style" he shut up immediately
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Agreed there!Constantine wrote:DEATH ROW JOE wrote:General Election: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/WSVN Obama 46, Romney 43 Obama +3
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Roanoke College Obama 48, Romney 40 Obama +8
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama SurveyUSA Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 53, Romney 42 Obama +11[/color]
Missouri: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Romney 48, Obama 45 Romney +3
New Mexico: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, Romney 40 Obama +11
Rhode Island: Romney vs. Obama WPRI/Fleming Obama 57, Romney 33 Obama +24
Maryland: Romney vs. Obama Baltimore Sun Obama 57, Romney 34 Obama +23
General Election: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama ABC News/Wash Post Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Politico/GWU/Battleground Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 48, Romney 44 Obama +4
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 48, Romney 48 Tie
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 46, Romney 50 Romney +4
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama WMUR/UNH Obama 54, Romney 39 Obama +15
New Mexico: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica* Obama 51, Romney 41 Obama +10
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 52, Romney 40 Obama +12
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama WBUR/MassINC Obama 60, Romney 32 Obama +28
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama Des Moines Register Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Columbus Dispatch* Obama 51, Romney 42 Obama +9
Washington: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, Romney 41 Obama +11
Maine: Romney vs. Obama Critical Insights Obama 52, Romney 36 Obama +16
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama Boston Globe Obama 57, Romney 30 Obama +27
General Election: Romney vs. Obama WashTimes/JZ Analytics* Obama 50, Romney 41 Obama +9
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 50, Romney 46 Obama +4
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Morning Call Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7
General Election: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 48, Romney 43 Obama +5
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Suffolk/WWBT Obama 46, Romney 44 Obama +2
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2[/b]
Romney for the win by 5+ points!!!
Trust me, Im the brain!
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
FFS Zombie, you better not be agreeing that Constantine is "the brain". You better not be agreeing with anything in his post at all. His knowledge of our political system rivals your knowledge of the female clitoris.
nycrue wrote:Magic Wand Original @HitachiMagic 14 Feb 12
RT @hollywoodrose: the more I look at dating websites the more I know its gonna be just me and my @HitachiMagic for my whole life

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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2

quit making false accusations about my sexual behavior. I know where the clitoris is. Also the only reason I am agreeing with Constantine is because Obama is a fuck up who has pissed off this country too much.
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
Where? Come on, man...help a brotha out.HeavyMetalZombie666 wrote: I know where the clitoris is.

"I was looking for that great jazz note that destroyed the walls of Jericho." - The Clash, The Sound Of Sinners
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
He keeps it in a box under his bed.John Simon Ritchie wrote:Where? Come on, man...help a brotha out.HeavyMetalZombie666 wrote: I know where the clitoris is.
nycrue wrote:Magic Wand Original @HitachiMagic 14 Feb 12
RT @hollywoodrose: the more I look at dating websites the more I know its gonna be just me and my @HitachiMagic for my whole life

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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
I don't think he wants anyone else to play with it.John Simon Ritchie wrote:Where? Come on, man...help a brotha out.HeavyMetalZombie666 wrote: I know where the clitoris is.
Sorta selfish if ya ask me.

"Trump....his penis is teeny tiny but his love for us is large."
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Re: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Oct 3 = Obama +2
You and will probably soon be making our Zombie jokes to each other when we're Foed as Fuck!Wheresthestagemanager? wrote:I don't think he wants anyone else to play with it.John Simon Ritchie wrote:Where? Come on, man...help a brotha out.HeavyMetalZombie666 wrote: I know where the clitoris is.
Sorta selfish if ya ask me.
nycrue wrote:Magic Wand Original @HitachiMagic 14 Feb 12
RT @hollywoodrose: the more I look at dating websites the more I know its gonna be just me and my @HitachiMagic for my whole life
